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FINAL+3PHI
PHI

PHI

34-23-12

41
SJ

SJ

32-30-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-0VegasSJ -122

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 4–1.

PHI +1.5 cashed (SJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Christian Dvorak

Christian Dvorak

C · #22

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

SJ
Macklin Celebrini

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
1
PHI34-23-12SJ32-30-6
PHI

PHI

34-23-12

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
SJ

SJ

32-30-6

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

18

PIM

20

Season series

PHI wins series 2-0

Dec 10SJSJ1@PHIPHI4
Mar 21PHIPHI4@SJSJ1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+10250%
SJSJ-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat SJ 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PHI0134
SJ0101

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · SJ won 0

0
0

1

1
1

2

3
0

3

PHI
SJ

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PHI 4·SJ 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 4·SJ 1

  3. 3rd·19:32

    Giveaway by Nikita Grebenkin

    PHI 4·SJ 1

  4. 3rd·19:24

    Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Emil Andrae

    ·

    PHI 4·SJ 1

  5. 3rd·19:24

    Noah Cates Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (27)

    ·

    PHI 4·SJ 1

  6. 3rd·19:19

    Takeaway by Noah Cates

    PHI 3·SJ 1

  7. 3rd·19:14

    Owen Tippett Wrist Shot Off Crossbar

    PHI 3·SJ 1

  8. 3rd·18:48

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 3·SJ 1

  9. 3rd·18:48

    Travis Sanheim Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    PHI 3·SJ 1

  10. 3rd·18:44

    Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  11. 3rd·18:33

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  12. 3rd·18:33

    Timeout - Home

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  13. 3rd·18:33

    Puck in Netting

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  14. 3rd·18:31

    Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  15. 3rd·18:06

    Kiefer Sherwood hit Rasmus Ristolainen

    ·

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  16. 3rd·17:53

    Giveaway by Alexander Wennberg

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  17. 3rd·17:39

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  18. 3rd·17:39

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  19. 3rd·17:37

    Carl Grundstrom Tip-In saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  20. 3rd·17:27

    Takeaway by Noah Cates

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  21. 3rd·16:53

    Adam Gaudette shot blocked by Travis Sanheim

    ·

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  22. 3rd·16:04

    Travis Konecny Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  23. 3rd·15:46

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  24. 3rd·15:46

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  25. 3rd·15:44

    Dmitry Orlov Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  26. 3rd·15:33

    Owen Tippett Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  27. 3rd·15:32

    Takeaway by Owen Tippett

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  28. 3rd·14:43

    Noah Juulsen hit Zack Ostapchuk

    ·

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  29. 3rd·13:27

    Sam Dickinson Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 2·SJ 1

  30. 3rd·13:24

    Kiefer Sherwood Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 2·SJ 1

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

SJ

Home

28

Shots

25

20.0

PCT

25.0

18

PIM

20

27

Faceoffs W

31

17

Blocks

10

11

Giveaways

14

6

Takeaways

4

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +102/SJ -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492
  • Rasmus RistolainenPHI · D
    DIST MI33.878

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · SJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR