Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PHI

PHI

34-23-12

32-30-6

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-0VegasSJ -122

PHI · top performer

Christian Dvorak

C · #22

2Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BumpLW · #20	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:29
N. CatesLW · #27	1	0	2	4	0	2	5	18:11
C. DvorakC · #22	1	1	2	4	1	1	0	25:32
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:55
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:51
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	11:39
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	1	0	3	3	0	0	23:31
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	17:20
O. TippettRW · #74	1	0	3	5	1	0	0	20:11
G. WilsonLW · #10	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	8:06
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	1	1	3	2	0	4	19:53

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5:24
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	17:12
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	1	1	0	5	2	0	8:53
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	24:39
T. SanheimD · #6	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	28:57
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	14:25
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	19:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	25	1	24	.960	58:25

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	1	-2	6	2	0	2	24:31
W. EklundLW · #72	0	1	-2	0	1	1	2	22:05
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	10:49
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	1	3	0	5	9:38
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	11:39
P. KurashevC · #96	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	9:28
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:53
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	9:48
R. ReavesRW · #75	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0:19
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	-2	1	4	1	0	19:22
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	-2	5	1	0	0	22:49
A. WennbergC · #21	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	24:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	17:07
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	20:28
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:44
N. LeddyD · #4	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:57
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:51
D. OrlovD · #9	1	0	-2	4	1	2	0	24:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	26	2	24	.923	58:43

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PHI wins series 2-0

Dec 10

SJ1@

PHI4

Mar 21

PHI4@

SJ1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+10250%

SJ-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat SJ 4-1. C. Dvorak led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PHI	0	1	3	4
SJ	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · SJ won 0

PHI

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 4·SJ 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 4·SJ 1
3rd·19:32
Giveaway by Nikita Grebenkin
PHI 4·SJ 1
3rd·19:24
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Emil Andrae
·
PHI 4·SJ 1
3rd·19:24
Noah Cates Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (27)
·
PHI 4·SJ 1
3rd·19:19
Takeaway by Noah Cates
PHI 3·SJ 1
3rd·19:14
Owen Tippett Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
PHI 3·SJ 1
3rd·18:48
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 3·SJ 1
3rd·18:48
Travis Sanheim Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none
PHI 3·SJ 1
3rd·18:44
Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·18:33
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·18:33
Timeout - Home
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·18:33
Puck in Netting
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·18:31
Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·18:06
Kiefer Sherwood hit Rasmus Ristolainen
·
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·17:53
Giveaway by Alexander Wennberg
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·17:39
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·17:39
Goalie Stopped
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·17:37
Carl Grundstrom Tip-In saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·17:27
Takeaway by Noah Cates
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·16:53
Adam Gaudette shot blocked by Travis Sanheim
·
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·16:04
Travis Konecny Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·15:46
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·15:46
Goalie Stopped
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·15:44
Dmitry Orlov Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·15:33
Owen Tippett Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·15:32
Takeaway by Owen Tippett
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·14:43
Noah Juulsen hit Zack Ostapchuk
·
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·13:27
Sam Dickinson Slap Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 2·SJ 1
3rd·13:24
Kiefer Sherwood Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 2·SJ 1

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +102/SJ -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 4–1.

PHI +1.5 cashed (SJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Christian Dvorak · PHI25:421.0752.8%62.0%25:42 TOI · 1.07 iXG · 52.8% CF · 62.0% xGF
Macklin Celebrini · SJS24:360.6754.9%54.2%24:36 TOI · 0.67 iXG · 54.9% CF · 54.2% xGF
Owen Tippett · PHI20:180.6557.4%62.0%20:18 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 57.4% CF · 62.0% xGF
Dmitry Orlov · SJS25:000.4765.1%75.9%25:00 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 65.1% CF · 75.9% xGF
Trevor Zegras · PHI20:000.4061.9%77.7%20:00 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 61.9% CF · 77.7% xGF
Alexander Wennberg · SJS24:300.3865.1%55.9%24:30 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 65.1% CF · 55.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Dan Vladar · PHI24–1.960+1.2224–1 · .960 SV% · +1.22 GSAx
Alex Nedeljkovic · SJS24–2.923+1.1124–2 · .923 SV% · +1.11 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.5%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
56.5%
P(SJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.5%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.5%
P(SJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Philadelphia FlyersSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL