Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2BOS

BOS

39-23-8

DET

38-24-8

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-1VegasDET -120

BOS · top performer

Elias Lindholm

C · #28

2Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	16:03
M. GeekieC · #39	0	3	2	1	0	0	0	14:07
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	-1	0	5	2	0	8:48
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	-1	3	2	0	2	8:28
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:33
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	10:14
E. LindholmC · #28	1	1	2	4	0	1	0	15:40
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	21:09
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:09
D. PastrnakRW · #88	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	21:27
L. ReichelLW · #75	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:53
P. ZachaC · #18	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	17:24
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	18:06
M. LohreiD · #6	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:51
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	2	2	1	6	1	0	27:05
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	18:11
N. ZadorovD · #91	1	0	2	1	2	4	0	21:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	44	2	42	.955	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	-1	3	2	0	2	12:43
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	19:54
A. CoppC · #18	0	1	-1	3	0	1	0	21:16
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	21:48
S. DriesC · #15	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4:26
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	16:59
P. KaneRW · #88	0	1	0	7	1	0	0	21:42
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	-1	2	5	1	0	14:34
D. PerronLW · #57	0	0	-1	2	2	0	2	17:02
L. RaymondLW · #23	1	0	-3	4	1	1	0	22:58
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3:54
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	9:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:40
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	-2	2	2	1	0	23:41
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	18:04
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	-1	1	2	3	0	20:53
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:38
M. SeiderD · #53	0	1	0	3	1	3	2	25:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	26	3	23	.885	57:40

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BOS wins series 3-1

Nov 30

DET2@

BOS3

Dec 3

BOS4@

DET5

Jan 14

DET0@

BOS3

Mar 22

BOS4@

DET2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+10050%

DET-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat DET 4-2. E. Lindholm led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BOS	0	1	3	4
DET	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · DET won 0

BOS

DET

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·19:57
Giveaway by Alex DeBrincat
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·19:55
Patrick Kane shot blocked by Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·19:53
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·19:53
Icing
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·19:46
Charlie McAvoy hit James van Riemsdyk
·
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·19:42
Alex DeBrincat Slap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·19:23
Casey Mittelstadt Wrist Shot Wide Left
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·19:13
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·19:13
Icing
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·19:06
Alex DeBrincat Tip-In saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·19:04
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·18:44
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·18:22
Moritz Seider shot blocked by Nikita Zadorov
·
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·18:08
Casey Mittelstadt faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·18:08
Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (58), Elias Lindholm (29)
· ·
BOS 4·DET 2
3rd·18:00
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 3·DET 2
3rd·18:00
Puck in Netting
BOS 3·DET 2
3rd·17:58
Lucas Raymond shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
BOS 3·DET 2
3rd·17:45
Charlie McAvoy shot blocked by Lucas Raymond
·
BOS 3·DET 2
3rd·17:35
Fraser Minten faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
BOS 3·DET 2
3rd·17:35
Puck in Crowd
BOS 3·DET 2
3rd·17:27
Albert Johansson Slap Shot Wide Right
·
BOS 3·DET 2
3rd·17:24
Lucas Raymond Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 3·DET 2
3rd·17:03
Ben Chiarot hit Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 3·DET 2
3rd·16:52
Lucas Raymond Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
BOS 3·DET 2
3rd·16:01
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Pavel Zacha
·
BOS 3·DET 2
3rd·16:01
Puck Frozen - Goalie
BOS 3·DET 2
3rd·15:59
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
BOS 3·DET 2

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 5.5·BOS +100/DET -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 4–2.

BOS +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.0%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
57.0%
P(DET win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.0%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.0%
P(DET win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Boston BruinsDetroit Red Wings

Elsewhere in the NHL