Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

DAL

43-15-11

MIN

40-19-12

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-1VegasDAL -135

DAL · top performer

Jason Robertson

LW · #21

1Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Bobby Brink

RW · #10

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	12:22
N. BastianRW · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9:16
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	15:47
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	12:31
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	19:25
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	13:40
M. DucheneC · #95	0	1	-1	1	3	1	0	18:01
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	10:42
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	15:09
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	22:25
J. RobertsonLW · #21	1	0	-1	4	0	0	2	25:51
S. SteelC · #18	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	-1	2	3	1	2	14:35
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	-1	0	0	4	0	23:40
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	1	0	4	0	2	0	25:00
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	21:09
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	16:44
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:16

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	28	2	26	.929	63:06

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	0	0	4	3	3	0	24:22
B. BrinkRW · #10	1	1	2	1	2	2	4	12:52
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	1	0	3	1	0	13:31
H. HaightC · #37	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	10:41
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	16:57
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	16:15
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:09
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	12:30
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	17:39
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	13:56
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:58
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	14:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:00
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	0	1	0	3	2	18:47
B. FaberD · #7	0	0	0	5	2	2	0	24:29
Q. HughesD · #43	0	2	2	1	0	2	0	27:20
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	16:05
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	24:03

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	30	1	29	.967	63:06

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Apr 18

MIN6@

DAL1

Apr 21

MIN2@

DAL4

Apr 23

DAL4@

MIN3

Apr 25

DAL2@

MIN3

Apr 29

MIN4@

DAL2

Apr 30

DAL2@

MIN5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-13557%

MIN+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 32 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat DAL 2-1. B. Brink led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
DAL	1	0	0	0	1
MIN	0	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · MIN won 2

DAL

MIN

Play-by-play · 335 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:06
Game End
DAL 1·MIN 2
OT·3:06
End of OT
DAL 1·MIN 2
OT·3:06
Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (14), Quinn Hughes (63)
· ·
DAL 1·MIN 2
OT·2:27
Vladimir Tarasenko Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
OT·2:08
Brock Faber Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
OT·1:15
Matt Duchene shot blocked by Quinn Hughes
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
OT·0:34
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Ryan Hartman
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
OT·0:00
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·19:37
Jake Middleton shot blocked by Esa Lindell
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·19:30
Brock Faber shot blocked by Jamie Benn
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·19:14
Jamie Benn shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·18:40
Takeaway by Matt Boldy
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·18:32
Marcus Johansson hit Miro Heiskanen
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·18:14
Colin Blackwell hit Quinn Hughes
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·18:01
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Colin Blackwell
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·18:01
Icing
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·17:53
Justin Hryckowian Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·17:48
Giveaway by Ryan Hartman
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·17:28
Ryan Hartman Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·17:24
Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Lian Bichsel
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·17:21
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Oskar Bäck
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·17:21
Icing
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·16:24
Adam Erne hit Bobby Brink
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:55
Matt Boldy Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:53
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Nick Foligno
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:53
Goalie Stopped
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:51
Jamie Benn Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:24
Jamie Benn Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
DAL 1·MIN 1

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -135/MIN +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild held off Dallas Stars, 2–1 in overtime.

MIN +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Justin Hryckowian · DAL15:300.7070.0%56.2%15:30 TOI · 0.70 iXG · 70.0% CF · 56.2% xGF
Brock Faber · MIN24:300.4941.7%47.5%24:30 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 41.7% CF · 47.5% xGF
Vladimir Tarasenko · MIN17:540.4644.4%54.7%17:54 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 44.4% CF · 54.7% xGF
Ryan Hartman · MIN17:120.4551.4%60.1%17:12 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 51.4% CF · 60.1% xGF
Jason Robertson · DAL26:000.4266.7%63.2%26:00 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 66.7% CF · 63.2% xGF
Wyatt Johnston · DAL22:420.3571.7%67.4%22:42 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 71.7% CF · 67.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Filip Gustavsson · MIN29–1.967+1.8629–1 · .967 SV% · +1.86 GSAx
Jake Oettinger · DAL26–2.929+1.0226–2 · .929 SV% · +1.02 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
52.3%
P(MIN win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.3%
P(MIN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.3%
P(MIN win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Dallas StarsMinnesota Wild

Elsewhere in the NHL