NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

DAL

43-15-11

MIN

40-19-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-1VegasDAL -135

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild held off Dallas Stars, 2–1 in overtime.

MIN +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Matt Duchene

C · #95

1Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Bobby Brink

RW · #10

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

DAL43-15-11

MIN40-19-12

DAL43-15-11MIN40-19-12

DAL

43-15-11

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

MIN

40-19-12

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

Apr 18

MIN6@

DAL1

Apr 21

MIN2@

DAL4

Apr 23

DAL4@

MIN3

Apr 25

DAL2@

MIN3

Apr 29

MIN4@

DAL2

Apr 30

DAL2@

MIN5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-13557%

MIN+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat DAL 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
DAL	1	0	0	0	1
MIN	0	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · MIN won 2

DAL

MIN

Play-by-play · 335 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:06
Game End
DAL 1·MIN 2
OT·3:06
End of OT
DAL 1·MIN 2
OT·3:06
Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (14), Quinn Hughes (63)
· ·
DAL 1·MIN 2
OT·2:27
Vladimir Tarasenko Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
OT·2:08
Brock Faber Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
OT·1:15
Matt Duchene shot blocked by Quinn Hughes
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
OT·0:34
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Ryan Hartman
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
OT·0:00
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·19:37
Jake Middleton shot blocked by Esa Lindell
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·19:30
Brock Faber shot blocked by Jamie Benn
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·19:14
Jamie Benn shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·18:40
Takeaway by Matt Boldy
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·18:32
Marcus Johansson hit Miro Heiskanen
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·18:14
Colin Blackwell hit Quinn Hughes
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·18:01
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Colin Blackwell
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·18:01
Icing
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·17:53
Justin Hryckowian Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·17:48
Giveaway by Ryan Hartman
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·17:28
Ryan Hartman Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·17:24
Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Lian Bichsel
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·17:21
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Oskar Bäck
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·17:21
Icing
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·16:24
Adam Erne hit Bobby Brink
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:55
Matt Boldy Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:53
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Nick Foligno
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:53
Goalie Stopped
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:51
Jamie Benn Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
DAL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:24
Jamie Benn Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
DAL 1·MIN 1

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -135/MIN +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Brock FaberMIN · D
BURSTS2799+
Matt BoldyMIN · LW
SHOT MPH92.897
Marcus JohanssonMIN · LW
SKATE MPH23.296
Quinn HughesMIN · D
BURSTS1895
Michael McCarronMIN · C
SHOT MPH87.283

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MIN vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 135 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jason RobertsonDAL
3.9± 2.0high
Matt BoldyMIN
3.8± 1.9high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
3.3± 1.6high

Goals

Jason RobertsonDAL
0.8± 0.6high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
0.6± 0.7high
Matt BoldyMIN
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Jason RobertsonDAL
1.3± 0.9high
Quinn HughesMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Matt DucheneDAL
1.2± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands