Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2STL

STL

28-30-11

VAN

21-40-8

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-1VegasSTL -148

STL · top performer

Pavel Buchnevich

LW · #89

2Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Filip Hronek

D · #17

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	16:42
J. DrouinLW · #92	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:55
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:27
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:03
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	19:22
J. KyrouRW · #25	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	15:56
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	1	0	2	0	4	11:58
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	0	0	5	0	2	0	19:30
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:45
P. SuterC · #22	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	11:22
R. ThomasC · #18	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	20:01
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	10:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	22:34
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	19:01
J. HollD · #4	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	18:47
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:39
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	21:59
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	18:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	15	1	14	.933	59:44

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:24
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	18:55
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:19
C. DouglasC · #42	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	11:21
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:39
E. KaneLW · #91	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	15:31
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	13:44
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	-1	4	3	0	0	16:34
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	15:24
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	1	-1	0	1	1	0	15:06
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	12:57
M. RossiC · #93	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	17:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	23:36
F. HronekD · #17	1	0	-1	2	3	2	2	26:28
V. ManciniD · #90	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	13:56
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	21:24
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:49
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	18:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LankinenG · #32	20	2	18	.900	59:42

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

STL wins series 2-1

Oct 13

STL5@

VAN2

Oct 31

VAN4@

STL3

Mar 21

STL3@

VAN1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL-14860%

VAN+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat VAN 3-1. P. Buchnevich led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	0	2	1	3
VAN	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

STL won 1 · VAN won 0

STL

VAN

Play-by-play · 258 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:48
Giveaway by Nils Hoglander
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:45
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:45
Goalie Stopped
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:43
Alexey Toropchenko Snap Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:18
Filip Hronek hit Alexey Toropchenko
·
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:12
Jack Finley faceoff won against Marco Rossi
·
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:12
Jordan Kyrou Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (26), Logan Mailloux (5)
· ·
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·18:59
Drew O'Connor hit Logan Mailloux
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·18:36
Robert Thomas Snap Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:47
Giveaway by Marcus Pettersson
· ·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:44
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:44
Timeout - Visitor
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:44
Filip Hronek Cross-checking against Dylan Holloway
· ·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:10
Giveaway by Curtis Douglas
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·16:24
Nils Hoglander shot blocked by Colton Parayko
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·16:15
Filip Hronek shot blocked by Alexey Toropchenko
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·16:10
Zeev Buium Slap Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·16:08
Marco Rossi faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·16:08
Puck in Netting
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·16:06
Evander Kane shot blocked by Robert Thomas
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:55
Elias Pettersson hit Logan Mailloux
· ·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:55
Giveaway by Logan Mailloux
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:52
Elias Pettersson Snap Shot Wide Left
· ·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:35
Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Pius Suter
· ·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:35
Goalie Stopped
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:33
Liam Ohgren Snap Shot Wide Right
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:25
Giveaway by Dalibor Dvorsky
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·14:56
Aatu Räty hit Justin Holl
·
STL 2·VAN 1

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL -148/VAN +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 3–1.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jordan Kyrou · WSH16:000.6282.6%79.7%16:00 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 82.6% CF · 79.7% xGF
Jimmy Snuggerud · STL19:480.5559.4%65.2%19:48 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 59.4% CF · 65.2% xGF
Robert Thomas · STL20:120.4655.6%68.6%20:12 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 55.6% CF · 68.6% xGF
Drew O'Connor · VAN16:360.3844.4%46.0%16:36 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 44.4% CF · 46.0% xGF
Brock Boeser · VAN19:000.3241.4%45.1%19:00 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 41.4% CF · 45.1% xGF
Dylan Holloway · STL19:240.3057.1%68.6%19:24 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 57.1% CF · 68.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jordan Binnington · STL14–1.933+0.8914–1 · .933 SV% · +0.89 GSAx
Kevin Lankinen · VAN18–2.900+0.5618–2 · .900 SV% · +0.56 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
49.4%
P(VAN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
49.4%
P(VAN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
49.4%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesVancouver Canucks

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