NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2STL

STL

28-30-11

VAN

21-40-8

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-1VegasSTL -148

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 3–1.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

Pavel Buchnevich

LW · #89

2Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Filip Hronek

D · #17

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	16:42
J. DrouinLW · #92	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:55
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:27
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:03
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	19:22
J. KyrouRW · #25	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	15:56
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	1	0	2	0	4	11:58
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	0	0	5	0	2	0	19:30
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:45
P. SuterC · #22	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	11:22
R. ThomasC · #18	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	20:01
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	10:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	22:34
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	19:01
J. HollD · #4	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	18:47
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:39
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	21:59
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	18:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	15	1	14	.933	59:44

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:24
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	18:55
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:19
C. DouglasC · #42	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	11:21
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:39
E. KaneLW · #91	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	15:31
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	13:44
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	-1	4	3	0	0	16:34
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	15:24
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	1	-1	0	1	1	0	15:06
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	12:57
M. RossiC · #93	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	17:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	23:36
F. HronekD · #17	1	0	-1	2	3	2	2	26:28
V. ManciniD · #90	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	13:56
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	21:24
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:49
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	18:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LankinenG · #32	20	2	18	.900	59:42

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

STL wins series 2-1

Oct 13

STL5@

VAN2

Oct 31

VAN4@

STL3

Mar 21

STL3@

VAN1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL-14860%

VAN+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

STL

P. Buchnevich

Top skater

1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG

J. Binnington

Goaltender

14 SV · 1 GA · .933

VAN

F. Hronek

Top skater

1 G · 2 SOG

K. Lankinen

Goaltender

18 SV · 2 GA · .900

How it ended

STL beat VAN 3-1. P. Buchnevich led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	0	2	1	3
VAN	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

STL won 1 · VAN won 0

STL

VAN

Play-by-play · 258 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:48
Giveaway by Nils Hoglander
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:45
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:45
Goalie Stopped
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:43
Alexey Toropchenko Snap Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:18
Filip Hronek hit Alexey Toropchenko
·
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:12
Jack Finley faceoff won against Marco Rossi
·
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·19:12
Jordan Kyrou Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (26), Logan Mailloux (5)
· ·
STL 3·VAN 1
3rd·18:59
Drew O'Connor hit Logan Mailloux
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·18:36
Robert Thomas Snap Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:47
Giveaway by Marcus Pettersson
· ·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:44
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:44
Timeout - Visitor
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:44
Filip Hronek Cross-checking against Dylan Holloway
· ·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:10
Giveaway by Curtis Douglas
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·16:24
Nils Hoglander shot blocked by Colton Parayko
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·16:15
Filip Hronek shot blocked by Alexey Toropchenko
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·16:10
Zeev Buium Slap Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·16:08
Marco Rossi faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·16:08
Puck in Netting
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·16:06
Evander Kane shot blocked by Robert Thomas
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:55
Elias Pettersson hit Logan Mailloux
· ·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:55
Giveaway by Logan Mailloux
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:52
Elias Pettersson Snap Shot Wide Left
· ·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:35
Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Pius Suter
· ·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:35
Goalie Stopped
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:33
Liam Ohgren Snap Shot Wide Right
·
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:25
Giveaway by Dalibor Dvorsky
STL 2·VAN 1
3rd·14:56
Aatu Räty hit Justin Holl
·
STL 2·VAN 1

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL -148/VAN +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Philip BrobergSTL · D
BURSTS15898
Brock BoeserVAN · RW
SHOT MPH96.498
Jake DeBruskVAN · LW
iXG34.998
Filip HronekVAN · D
DIST MI292.398
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL · RW
SHOT MPH95.697

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jordan Kyrou · STL16:000.4782.6%82.6%16:00 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 82.6% CF · 82.6% xGF
Drew O'Connor · VAN16:360.4744.4%58.0%16:36 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 44.4% CF · 58.0% xGF
Jimmy Snuggerud · STL19:480.4359.4%54.8%19:48 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 59.4% CF · 54.8% xGF
Robert Thomas · STL20:120.3055.6%58.2%20:12 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 55.6% CF · 58.2% xGF
Linus Karlsson · VAN13:540.2842.3%52.6%13:54 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 42.3% CF · 52.6% xGF
Pius Suter · STL11:240.2358.8%65.3%11:24 TOI · 0.23 iXG · 58.8% CF · 65.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jordan Binnington · STL14–1.933+0.1914–1 · .933 SV% · +0.19 GSAx
Kevin Lankinen · VAN18–2.900-0.6418–2 · .900 SV% · -0.64 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
49.4%
P(VAN win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
49.4%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
49.4%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss