Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BOS

PIT

31-16-13

BOS

34-21-5

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesBOS leads series 2-0VegasBOS -120

PIT · top performer

Erik Karlsson

D · #65

1Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

Marat Khusnutdinov

C · #92

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	12:46
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:04
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	0	-1	3	0	1	2	16:31
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	14:18
K. HayesRW · #13	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	7:26
A. HayesRW · #85	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:58
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	17:00
E. MalkinC · #71	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	21:24
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	0	0	3	4	2	2	16:03
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	15:34
R. RakellRW · #67	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	20:05
B. RustRW · #17	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	21:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	0	0	3	3	2	18:06
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	18:21
E. KarlssonD · #65	1	0	0	6	0	2	0	21:18
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	-1	1	3	3	0	21:15
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	18:56
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	16:16

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SkinnerG · #74	28	2	26	.929	58:01

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:26
M. EyssimontC · #81	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	9:22
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:48
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:24
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	11:31
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	14:32
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	10:51
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	19:43
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	1	0	3	2	0	15:19
C. MittelstadtC · #11	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	15:57
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	19:49
P. ZachaC · #18	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	15:42
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	23:37
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:00
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	26:13
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	1	0	4	2	0	18:03
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	1	1	5	2	0	0	19:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	35	1	34	.971	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BOS leads series 2-0

Jan 11

PIT0@

BOS1

Mar 4

PIT1@

BOS2today

Mar 8

BOS4@

PIT5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+10050%

BOS-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat PIT 2-1. M. Khusnutdinov led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PIT	1	0	0	1
BOS	2	0	0	2

Period scoring

PIT won 0 · BOS won 1

PIT

BOS

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:59
Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Elias Lindholm
· ·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:49
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:49
Goalie Stopped
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:47
Erik Karlsson Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:33
Giveaway by Evgeni Malkin
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:31
Giveaway by Hampus Lindholm
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:11
Evgeni Malkin faceoff won against Pavel Zacha
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:11
Icing
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:04
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:04
Goalie Stopped
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:02
Evgeni Malkin Slap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·18:50
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·18:50
Puck in Crowd
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·18:37
Rickard Rakell hit Charlie McAvoy
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·18:08
Viktor Arvidsson Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·18:00
Andrew Peeke hit Evgeni Malkin
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·17:33
Connor Clifton hit Pavel Zacha
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·17:26
Giveaway by Connor Clifton
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·17:15
Justin Brazeau Backhand Wide Left
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·17:14
Connor Dewar Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·16:26
Evgeni Malkin hit Marat Khusnutdinov
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·16:12
Thomas Novak faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·16:12
Goalie Stopped
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·16:07
Evgeni Malkin Tip-In saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·16:05
Evgeni Malkin shot blocked by Fraser Minten
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·15:59
Giveaway by Andrew Peeke
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·15:51
Thomas Novak faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
3rd·15:51
Off-side
PIT 1·BOS 2

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +100/BOS -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 2–1.

PIT +1.5 cashed (BOS won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
57.5%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.5%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.5%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Pittsburgh PenguinsBoston Bruins

Elsewhere in the NHL