Mar 17, 26sim 99
12
10(H)3
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1BOS
PIT
31-16-13
12
BOS
34-21-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
oston Bruins held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 2–1.
PIT +1.5 cashed (BOS won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PIT · top performer
Bryan Rust
RW · #17
1Points
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
BOS · top performer
Michael Eyssimont
C · #81
1Points
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
PIT31-16-13
12
BOS34-21-5
PIT31-16-13BOS34-21-5
PIT
31-16-13
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
BOS
34-21-5
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
8
Season series
BOS leads series 2-0
Jan 11PIT0@BOS1
PIT0@BOS1Mar 4PIT1@BOS2today
PIT1@BOS2todayMar 8BOS4@PIT5
BOS4@PIT5Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
BOS -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
PIT+10050%BOS-12055%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
BOS beat PIT 2-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Period scoring
PIT won 0 · BOS won 1
1
2
1
0
0
2
0
0
3
PIT
BOS
Play-by-play · 324 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·19:59
Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Elias Lindholm
· ·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·19:49
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·19:49
Goalie Stopped
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·19:47
Erik Karlsson Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·19:33
Giveaway by Evgeni Malkin
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·19:31
Giveaway by Hampus Lindholm
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·19:11
Evgeni Malkin faceoff won against Pavel Zacha
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·19:11
Icing
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·19:04
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·19:04
Goalie Stopped
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·19:02
Evgeni Malkin Slap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·18:50
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·18:50
Puck in Crowd
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·18:37
Rickard Rakell hit Charlie McAvoy
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·18:08
Viktor Arvidsson Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·18:00
Andrew Peeke hit Evgeni Malkin
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·17:33
Connor Clifton hit Pavel Zacha
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·17:26
Giveaway by Connor Clifton
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·17:15
Justin Brazeau Backhand Wide Left
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·17:14
Connor Dewar Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·16:26
Evgeni Malkin hit Marat Khusnutdinov
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·16:12
Thomas Novak faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·16:12
Goalie Stopped
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·16:07
Evgeni Malkin Tip-In saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·16:05
Evgeni Malkin shot blocked by Fraser Minten
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·15:59
Giveaway by Andrew Peeke
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·15:51
Thomas Novak faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
PIT 1·BOS 2
- 3rd·15:51
Off-side
PIT 1·BOS 2
Team stats
PIT
Away
Stat
BOS
Home
35
Shots
28
0.0
PCT
0.0
6
PIM
8
16
Faceoffs W
32
23
Blocks
12
12
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
4
Betting line
BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +100/BOS -120
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Egor ChinakhovPIT · RWSHOT MPH94.799
Erik KarlssonPIT · DSKATE MPH22.897
Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · CSKATE MPH23.092
Samuel GirardPIT · DSKATE MPH22.590
Morgan GeekieBOS · CSHOT MPH88.989
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-120
Close price
-120
Open no-vig
52.2%
Close no-vig
52.2%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Player projections
BOS vs PIT.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
141
projections · 117 high confidence
Shots on goal
- David PastrnakBOS3.2± 2.2high
- Rickard RakellPIT3.0± 2.1high
- Matthew PoitrasBOS2.7± 2.8low
Goals
- Morgan GeekieBOS0.6± 0.9high
- Evgeni MalkinPIT0.5± 1.0high
- David PastrnakBOS0.3± 0.5high
Points
- David PastrnakBOS1.1± 1.1high
- Evgeni MalkinPIT1.1± 1.4high
- Sidney CrosbyPIT1.1± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands