Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MIN

38-17-4

MIN

36-16-10

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesMIN leads series 1-0VegasTB -142

TB · top performer

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

1Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Quinn Hughes

D · #43

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	-1	3	2	1	0	15:56
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	-2	0	0	2	2	16:12
C. GeekieC · #14	0	0	-2	1	4	1	0	10:40
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	13:07
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	16:19
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	22:11
B. HagelLW · #38	0	0	-2	2	1	0	2	20:50
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	12:59
N. KucherovRW · #86	1	0	-1	1	0	0	0	22:56
B. PointC · #21	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	19:50
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	7:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	15:37
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	-2	1	2	4	0	15:43
V. HedmanD · #77	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	16:51
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	11:08
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	14:49
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:14
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	0	4	3	0	2	23:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	21	4	17	.810	58:18

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	3	2	3	1	1	0	19:57
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:20
R. FabbriC · #21	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	9:16
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	16:29
V. HinostrozaC · #18	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	8:05
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	10:45
K. KaprizovLW · #97	1	0	2	3	0	2	2	22:11
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	10:06
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:21
Y. TreninC · #13	1	0	1	4	6	0	0	15:18
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	13:54
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	20:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14:25
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	1	1	0	1	2	15:24
B. FaberD · #7	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	24:12
Q. HughesD · #43	1	1	1	4	0	2	0	26:01
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	1	1	1	4	0	18:26
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	15:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	25	1	24	.960	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

Mar 4

TB1@

MIN5today

Mar 24

MIN3@

TB6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-14259%

MIN+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat TB 5-1. Q. Hughes led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	0	1	0	1
MIN	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

TB won 0 · MIN won 3

MIN

Play-by-play · 284 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·19:36
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·19:19
Yakov Trenin Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·19:01
Brayden Point faceoff won against Nico Sturm
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·19:01
Zach Bogosian Holding the stick against Scott Sabourin
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·18:57
Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·18:47
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·18:32
Mats Zuccarello Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·17:54
Erik Cernak hit Nico Sturm
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·17:35
Yanni Gourde Deflected saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·16:53
Scott Sabourin Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·16:41
Conor Geekie faceoff won against Danila Yurov
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·16:41
Kirill Kaprizov Goal (35) Backhand, assists: Brock Faber (26), Matt Boldy (37)
· ·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·16:31
Yanni Gourde Deflected saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·16:30
Yanni Gourde Deflected saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·16:18
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·16:18
Icing
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·16:14
Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot Wide Left
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·15:28
Nikita Kucherov Slap Shot Wide Right
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·15:24
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·15:24
Icing
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·14:59
Nico Sturm faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·14:59
Icing
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·14:52
Conor Geekie hit Brock Faber
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·14:18
Zemgus Girgensons hit Ryan Hartman
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·14:08
Giveaway by Ryan Hartman
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·13:46
Darren Raddysh Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·13:19
Nikita Kucherov Backhand Wide Right
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·13:04
Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
·
TB 1·MIN 4

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -142/MIN +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 5–1.

MIN +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
52.1%
P(MIN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.1%
P(MIN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.1%
P(MIN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Tampa Bay LightningMinnesota Wild

Elsewhere in the NHL