NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MIN

38-17-4

MIN

36-16-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesMIN leads series 1-0VegasTB -142

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 5–1.

MIN +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

1Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Matt Boldy

LW · #12

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

TB38-17-4

MIN36-16-10

TB38-17-4MIN36-16-10

38-17-4

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

MIN

36-16-10

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

Mar 4

TB1@

MIN5today

Mar 24

MIN3@

TB6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-14259%

MIN+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat TB 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	0	1	0	1
MIN	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

TB won 0 · MIN won 3

MIN

Play-by-play · 284 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·19:36
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·19:19
Yakov Trenin Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·19:01
Brayden Point faceoff won against Nico Sturm
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·19:01
Zach Bogosian Holding the stick against Scott Sabourin
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·18:57
Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·18:47
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·18:32
Mats Zuccarello Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·17:54
Erik Cernak hit Nico Sturm
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·17:35
Yanni Gourde Deflected saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·16:53
Scott Sabourin Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·16:41
Conor Geekie faceoff won against Danila Yurov
·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·16:41
Kirill Kaprizov Goal (35) Backhand, assists: Brock Faber (26), Matt Boldy (37)
· ·
TB 1·MIN 5
3rd·16:31
Yanni Gourde Deflected saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·16:30
Yanni Gourde Deflected saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·16:18
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·16:18
Icing
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·16:14
Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot Wide Left
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·15:28
Nikita Kucherov Slap Shot Wide Right
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·15:24
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·15:24
Icing
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·14:59
Nico Sturm faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·14:59
Icing
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·14:52
Conor Geekie hit Brock Faber
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·14:18
Zemgus Girgensons hit Ryan Hartman
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·14:08
Giveaway by Ryan Hartman
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·13:46
Darren Raddysh Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·13:19
Nikita Kucherov Backhand Wide Right
·
TB 1·MIN 4
3rd·13:04
Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
·
TB 1·MIN 4

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -142/MIN +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Brock FaberMIN · D
BURSTS2799+
Matt BoldyMIN · LW
SHOT MPH92.897
Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
SKATE MPH23.696
Marcus JohanssonMIN · LW
SKATE MPH23.296
Quinn HughesMIN · D
BURSTS1895

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MIN vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

Matt BoldyMIN
3.8± 1.9high
Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
3.3± 1.6high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Matt BoldyMIN
0.5± 0.7high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Quinn HughesMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Kirill KaprizovMIN
1.2± 1.1high
Mats ZuccarelloMIN
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands