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FINAL+5DAL
DAL

DAL

38-14-9

61
CGY

CGY

24-29-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -130

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Calgary Flames and beat them, 6–1.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

DAL
Matt Duchene

Matt Duchene

C · #95

4Points

0

G

4

A

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

CGY
Blake Coleman

Blake Coleman

LW · #20

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
6
1
DAL38-14-9CGY24-29-7
DAL

DAL

38-14-9

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CGY

CGY

24-29-7

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

12

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 23DALDAL2@CGYCGY3
Mar 4DALDAL6@CGYCGY1today
Apr 8CGYCGY3@DALDAL4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DALDAL-13057%
CGYCGY+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat CGY 6-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
DAL2406
CGY1001

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · CGY won 0

2
1

1

4
0

2

0
0

3

DAL
CGY

Play-by-play · 319 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  3. 3rd·19:52

    Oskar Bäck faceoff won against Morgan Frost

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  4. 3rd·19:52

    Goalie Stopped

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  5. 3rd·19:50

    Lian Bichsel Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  6. 3rd·19:17

    John Beecher faceoff won against Oskar Bäck

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  7. 3rd·19:17

    Puck in Netting

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  8. 3rd·19:15

    Adam Erne shot blocked by Joel Hanley

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  9. 3rd·18:56

    Connor Zary Wrist Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  10. 3rd·18:28

    Sam Steel Deflected saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  11. 3rd·18:09

    Yegor Sharangovich shot blocked by Ilya Lyubushkin

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  12. 3rd·18:08

    Connor Zary shot blocked by Ilya Lyubushkin

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  13. 3rd·18:04

    Giveaway by Lian Bichsel

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  14. 3rd·18:03

    Takeaway by Lian Bichsel

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  15. 3rd·17:48

    Giveaway by Zayne Parekh

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  16. 3rd·17:38

    Zayne Parekh Wrist Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  17. 3rd·16:58

    Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Nazem Kadri

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  18. 3rd·16:58

    Mavrik Bourque Interference against Adam Klapka

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  19. 3rd·16:41

    Adam Klapka hit Adam Erne

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  20. 3rd·15:33

    Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Nazem Kadri

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  21. 3rd·15:33

    Hand Pass

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  22. 3rd·15:07

    Takeaway by Ilya Lyubushkin

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  23. 3rd·15:05

    Giveaway by Ilya Lyubushkin

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  24. 3rd·15:00

    Lian Bichsel hit Matvei Gridin

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  25. 3rd·14:46

    Arttu Hyry hit Zayne Parekh

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  26. 3rd·14:42

    Giveaway by Nathan Bastian

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  27. 3rd·14:31

    Morgan Frost faceoff won against Arttu Hyry

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  28. 3rd·14:31

    Goalie Stopped

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  29. 3rd·14:29

    Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

  30. 3rd·14:28

    Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot Short

    ·

    DAL 6·CGY 1

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

35

Shots

21

20.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

12

36

Faceoffs W

24

11

Blocks

20

16

Giveaways

22

5

Takeaways

5

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -130/CGY +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
    SHOT MPH100.297
  • Mikael BacklundCGY · C
    SHOT MPH93.594
  • Joel FarabeeCGY · LW
    DIST MI215.486
  • Matt CoronatoCGY · RW
    DIST MI214.185
  • Morgan FrostCGY · C
    BURSTS14285

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CGY vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 132 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    3.9± 2.0high
  • Blake ColemanCGY
    2.7± 1.6high
  • Wyatt JohnstonDAL
    2.7± 1.8high

Goals

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    0.8± 0.6high
  • Wyatt JohnstonDAL
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Blake ColemanCGY
    0.4± 0.7high

Points

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    1.3± 0.9high
  • Matt DucheneDAL
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Mikko RantanenDAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR