NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SJ

MTL

33-18-9

30-25-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesSJ leads series 1-0VegasMTL -135

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off Montreal Canadiens, 7–5.

SJ +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

Jake Evans

C · #71

2Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

MTL33-18-9

SJ30-25-4

MTL33-18-9SJ30-25-4

MTL

33-18-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

30-25-4

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

SJ leads series 1-0

Mar 4

MTL5@

SJ7today

Mar 14

SJ4@

MTL2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL-13557%

SJ+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat MTL 7-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	1	1	3	5
SJ	1	3	3	7

Period scoring

MTL won 0 · SJ won 1

MTL

Play-by-play · 334 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 5·SJ 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 5·SJ 7
3rd·19:56
Jake Evans faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk
·
MTL 5·SJ 7
3rd·19:56
Adam Gaudette Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (57)
·
MTL 5·SJ 7
3rd·19:46
Nick Suzuki Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:33
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:21
Juraj Slafkovský Tip-In Wide Left
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:12
Juraj Slafkovský Slap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:10
Nick Suzuki Slap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:06
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Adam Gaudette
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:06
Puck in Netting
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:04
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:53
Ivan Demidov Slap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:41
Cole Caufield Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:40
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:38
Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Vincent Desharnais
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:21
Ivan Demidov Slap Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:08
Kaiden Guhle Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:01
Nick Suzuki Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·17:53
Nick Suzuki Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·17:28
Takeaway by Lane Hutson
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·16:55
Barclay Goodrow hit Lane Hutson
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·16:42
Giveaway by Adam Gaudette
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·16:34
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·16:34
Kiefer Sherwood Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (12), William Eklund (27)
· ·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·16:31
Kiefer Sherwood shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
·
MTL 5·SJ 5
3rd·16:18
William Eklund shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 5·SJ 5
3rd·16:15
Jake Evans faceoff won against Michael Misa
·
MTL 5·SJ 5
3rd·16:15
Goalie Stopped
MTL 5·SJ 5
3rd·16:13
Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 5·SJ 5

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

40.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -135/SJ +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Lane HutsonMTL · D
DIST MI71.899+
Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
DIST MI56.699
Ivan DemidovMTL · RW
DIST MI49.298

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SJ vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high
Juraj SlafkovskyMTL
2.4± 1.6high

Goals

Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.9± 0.7high
Lane HutsonMTL
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands