Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SJ

MTL

33-18-9

30-25-4

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesSJ leads series 1-0VegasMTL -135

MTL · top performer

Alex Newhook

C · #15

2Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	4	3	1	2	10:04
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	13:10
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	-3	3	0	0	0	20:48
K. DachC · #77	0	0	-2	0	3	0	2	14:32
P. DanaultC · #24	1	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:46
I. DemidovRW · #93	1	0	-1	3	0	0	0	15:43
J. EvansC · #71	0	2	2	0	1	1	0	15:36
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	1	-1	3	2	1	0	11:17
O. KapanenC · #91	1	0	0	3	0	1	2	9:55
A. NewhookC · #15	2	0	1	3	1	1	0	15:53
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	18:31
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	1	-3	4	0	1	2	22:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	-1	2	0	5	0	12:39
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	20:58
K. GuhleD · #21	0	1	0	1	2	1	0	20:14
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	-1	1	1	2	0	25:03
M. MathesonD · #8	0	3	0	3	0	0	0	24:18
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	-1	0	2	0	2	8:47

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	27	6	21	.778	58:03

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	1	3	0	7	1	1	2	22:49
W. EklundLW · #72	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:43
A. GaudetteRW · #81	1	0	1	2	0	0	2	10:32
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	11:41
C. GrafRW · #51	1	1	-1	3	2	0	2	13:11
P. KurashevC · #96	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:58
M. MisaC · #77	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	12:37
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:37
K. SherwoodLW · #44	1	1	1	4	5	0	0	13:46
W. SmithC · #2	1	1	-1	1	0	0	0	19:37
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:54
A. WennbergC · #21	1	0	2	3	0	1	2	18:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	2	0	1	2	2	20:45
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	1	1	2	1	2	16:51
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	2	1	2	2	2	22:25
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:56
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	19:06
D. OrlovD · #9	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	19:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	36	5	31	.861	59:48

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

40.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SJ leads series 1-0

Mar 4

MTL5@

SJ7today

Mar 14

SJ4@

MTL2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL-13557%

SJ+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat MTL 7-5. M. Celebrini led the way — 1 G · 3 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	1	1	3	5
SJ	1	3	3	7

Period scoring

MTL won 0 · SJ won 1

MTL

Play-by-play · 334 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 5·SJ 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 5·SJ 7
3rd·19:56
Jake Evans faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk
·
MTL 5·SJ 7
3rd·19:56
Adam Gaudette Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (57)
·
MTL 5·SJ 7
3rd·19:46
Nick Suzuki Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:33
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:21
Juraj Slafkovský Tip-In Wide Left
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:12
Juraj Slafkovský Slap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:10
Nick Suzuki Slap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:06
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Adam Gaudette
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:06
Puck in Netting
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·19:04
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:53
Ivan Demidov Slap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:41
Cole Caufield Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:40
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:38
Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Vincent Desharnais
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:21
Ivan Demidov Slap Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:08
Kaiden Guhle Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·18:01
Nick Suzuki Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·17:53
Nick Suzuki Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·17:28
Takeaway by Lane Hutson
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·16:55
Barclay Goodrow hit Lane Hutson
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·16:42
Giveaway by Adam Gaudette
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·16:34
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·16:34
Kiefer Sherwood Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (12), William Eklund (27)
· ·
MTL 5·SJ 6
3rd·16:31
Kiefer Sherwood shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
·
MTL 5·SJ 5
3rd·16:18
William Eklund shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 5·SJ 5
3rd·16:15
Jake Evans faceoff won against Michael Misa
·
MTL 5·SJ 5
3rd·16:15
Goalie Stopped
MTL 5·SJ 5
3rd·16:13
Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 5·SJ 5

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -135/SJ +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off Montreal Canadiens, 7–5.

SJ +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
53.3%
P(SJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.3%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.3%
P(SJ win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL