Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4COL

COL

41-10-9

ANA

33-24-3

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasCOL -148

COL · top performer

Parker Kelly

C · #17

2Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:49
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	9:05
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:51
J. DruryC · #18	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	16:22
P. KellyC · #17	2	0	2	2	2	3	0	16:27
G. LandeskogLW · #92	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	20:13
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	20:43
M. NecasC · #88	1	0	1	2	0	1	2	21:29
B. NelsonC · #11	0	2	1	3	1	0	0	16:53
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	14:28
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:06
J. PolinRW · #14	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	8:09

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:03
B. KulakD · #27	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	18:06
C. MakarD · #8	1	2	2	2	0	1	0	22:26
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	18:03
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	1	2	3	1	2	19:27
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	18:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	28	1	27	.964	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:20
C. GauthierLW · #61	1	0	0	5	0	0	0	16:54
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	0	-1	0	5	0	0	9:50
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:10
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	18:22
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:28
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	14:31
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	16:40
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	19:39
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	-2	1	3	0	0	16:05
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	11:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	17:54
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	18:35
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	19:57
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	21:42
I. MooreD · #74	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:23
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	-1	3	1	0	4	20:02
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	-3	3	1	2	0	18:21

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	26	5	21	.808	59:40

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL wins series 2-1

Nov 12

ANA1@

COL4

Jan 22

ANA2@

COL1

Mar 4

COL5@

ANA1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-14860%

ANA+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat ANA 5-1. P. Kelly led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	2	1	2	5
ANA	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

COL won 2 · ANA won 0

COL

ANA

Play-by-play · 290 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·19:36
Takeaway by Tim Washe
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·19:25
Zakhar Bardakov faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·19:25
Goalie Stopped
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·19:23
Jeffrey Viel Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·19:18
Giveaway by Parker Kelly
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·19:08
Jansen Harkins hit Sam Malinski
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·19:00
Sam Malinski shot blocked by Pavel Mintyukov
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·18:53
Sam Malinski Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·18:16
Mason McTavish hit Josh Manson
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:59
Gavin Brindley Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:58
Jason Polin Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:56
Giveaway by Olen Zellweger
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:46
Olen Zellweger hit Gavin Brindley
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:42
Mason McTavish faceoff won against Zakhar Bardakov
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:42
Puck in Netting
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:40
Brent Burns shot blocked by Pavel Mintyukov
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:33
Zakhar Bardakov faceoff won against Leo Carlsson
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:33
Icing
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:24
Martin Necas shot blocked by Leo Carlsson
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:11
Giveaway by Chris Kreider
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:07
Giveaway by Cale Makar
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·16:22
Tim Washe hit Sam Malinski
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·15:47
Sam Malinski shot blocked by Ryan Poehling
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·15:18
Pavel Mintyukov shot blocked by Jason Polin
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·15:13
Giveaway by Zakhar Bardakov
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·14:59
Zakhar Bardakov faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·14:59
Icing
COL 5·ANA 1
3rd·14:23
Mason McTavish faceoff won against Zakhar Bardakov
·
COL 5·ANA 1

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -148/ANA +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 5–1.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
50.0%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheAnaheim Ducks

Elsewhere in the NHL