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FINAL+4COL
COL

COL

41-10-9

51
ANA

ANA

33-24-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasCOL -148

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 5–1.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Jack Drury

Jack Drury

C · #18

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

ANA
Cutter Gauthier

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
1
COL41-10-9ANA33-24-3
COL

COL

41-10-9

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
ANA

ANA

33-24-3

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

6

Season series

COL wins series 2-1

Nov 12ANAANA1@COLCOL4
Jan 22ANAANA2@COLCOL1
Mar 4COLCOL5@ANAANA1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-14860%
ANAANA+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat ANA 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL2125
ANA0101

Period scoring

COL won 2 · ANA won 0

2
0

1

1
1

2

2
0

3

COL
ANA

Play-by-play · 290 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 5·ANA 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 5·ANA 1

  3. 3rd·19:36

    Takeaway by Tim Washe

    COL 5·ANA 1

  4. 3rd·19:25

    Zakhar Bardakov faceoff won against Tim Washe

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  5. 3rd·19:25

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 5·ANA 1

  6. 3rd·19:23

    Jeffrey Viel Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  7. 3rd·19:18

    Giveaway by Parker Kelly

    COL 5·ANA 1

  8. 3rd·19:08

    Jansen Harkins hit Sam Malinski

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  9. 3rd·19:00

    Sam Malinski shot blocked by Pavel Mintyukov

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  10. 3rd·18:53

    Sam Malinski Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  11. 3rd·18:16

    Mason McTavish hit Josh Manson

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  12. 3rd·17:59

    Gavin Brindley Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  13. 3rd·17:58

    Jason Polin Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  14. 3rd·17:56

    Giveaway by Olen Zellweger

    COL 5·ANA 1

  15. 3rd·17:46

    Olen Zellweger hit Gavin Brindley

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  16. 3rd·17:42

    Mason McTavish faceoff won against Zakhar Bardakov

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  17. 3rd·17:42

    Puck in Netting

    COL 5·ANA 1

  18. 3rd·17:40

    Brent Burns shot blocked by Pavel Mintyukov

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  19. 3rd·17:33

    Zakhar Bardakov faceoff won against Leo Carlsson

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  20. 3rd·17:33

    Icing

    COL 5·ANA 1

  21. 3rd·17:24

    Martin Necas shot blocked by Leo Carlsson

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  22. 3rd·17:11

    Giveaway by Chris Kreider

    COL 5·ANA 1

  23. 3rd·17:07

    Giveaway by Cale Makar

    COL 5·ANA 1

  24. 3rd·16:22

    Tim Washe hit Sam Malinski

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  25. 3rd·15:47

    Sam Malinski shot blocked by Ryan Poehling

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  26. 3rd·15:18

    Pavel Mintyukov shot blocked by Jason Polin

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  27. 3rd·15:13

    Giveaway by Zakhar Bardakov

    COL 5·ANA 1

  28. 3rd·14:59

    Zakhar Bardakov faceoff won against Ryan Poehling

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

  29. 3rd·14:59

    Icing

    COL 5·ANA 1

  30. 3rd·14:23

    Mason McTavish faceoff won against Zakhar Bardakov

    ·

    COL 5·ANA 1

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

26

Shots

28

33.3

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

6

26

Faceoffs W

25

11

Blocks

10

12

Giveaways

17

5

Takeaways

3

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -148/ANA +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Martin NecasCOL · C
    BURSTS7599
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · ANA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR