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FINAL+1UTA
UTA

UTA

32-25-4

32
WSH

WSH

31-25-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesUTA leads series 1-0VegasWSH -112

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into Washington Capitals and beat them, 3–2.

UTA +1.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTA · top performer

UTA
Dylan Guenther

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

WSH
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Pierre-Luc Dubois

LW · #80

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Utah Mammoth at Washington Capitals · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
2
UTA32-25-4WSH31-25-7
UTA

UTA

32-25-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WSH

WSH

31-25-7

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Season series

UTA leads series 1-0

Mar 4UTAUTA3@WSHWSH2today
Mar 27WSHWSH7@UTAUTA4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAUTA-10852%
WSHWSH-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat WSH 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
UTA2103
WSH1012

Period scoring

UTA won 2 · WSH won 1

2
1

1

1
0

2

0
1

3

UTA
WSH

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  3. 3rd·19:41

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Barrett Hayton

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  4. 3rd·19:41

    Icing

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  5. 3rd·19:11

    Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Barrett Hayton

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  6. 3rd·19:11

    Icing

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  7. 3rd·19:01

    Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Nate Schmidt

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  8. 3rd·19:00

    Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Nate Schmidt

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  9. 3rd·18:45

    Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Nate Schmidt

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  10. 3rd·18:39

    Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Barrett Hayton

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  11. 3rd·18:39

    Icing

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  12. 3rd·18:34

    Lawson Crouse Snap Shot Wide Left

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  13. 3rd·18:31

    Pierre-Luc Dubois Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  14. 3rd·18:28

    Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  15. 3rd·18:20

    Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Nate Schmidt

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  16. 3rd·18:02

    Lawson Crouse shot blocked by Tom Wilson

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  17. 3rd·17:58

    Nate Schmidt Snap Shot Wide Right

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  18. 3rd·16:56

    Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Justin Sourdif

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  19. 3rd·16:56

    Icing

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  20. 3rd·16:50

    Rasmus Sandin shot blocked by Mikhail Sergachev

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  21. 3rd·16:46

    Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  22. 3rd·16:46

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  23. 3rd·16:42

    Ryan Leonard Backhand saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  24. 3rd·16:36

    Matt Roy shot blocked by Barrett Hayton

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  25. 3rd·16:09

    Connor McMichael Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  26. 3rd·16:00

    Ryan Leonard hit Jack McBain

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  27. 3rd·15:13

    Giveaway by Tom Wilson

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  28. 3rd·14:45

    Giveaway by Ian Cole

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  29. 3rd·14:44

    Nic Dowd hit Ian Cole

    ·

    UTA 3·WSH 2

  30. 3rd·14:28

    Giveaway by Martin Fehérváry

    UTA 3·WSH 2

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

23

Shots

25

100.0

PCT

100.0

4

PIM

4

22

Faceoffs W

26

15

Blocks

36

10

Giveaways

21

5

Takeaways

5

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·UTA -108/WSH -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797
  • Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
    DIST MI264.495
  • Brandon DuhaimeWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH23.392
  • Nic DowdVGK · C
    SHOT MPH89.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR