Live · 1
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1BUF
VGK

VGK

28-19-14

23
BUF

BUF

36-19-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesBUF leads series 1-0VegasBUF -135

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Vegas Golden Knights, 3–2.

VGK +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Ivan Barbashev

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Ryan McLeod

Ryan McLeod

C · #71

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
3
VGK28-19-14BUF36-19-6
VGK

VGK

28-19-14

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

36-19-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

2

Season series

BUF leads series 1-0

Mar 4VGKVGK2@BUFBUF3today
Mar 18BUFBUF2@VGKVGK0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK+11447%
BUFBUF-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat VGK 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK0202
BUF1203

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · BUF won 1

0
1

1

2
2

2

0
0

3

VGK
BUF

Play-by-play · 325 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Tomas Hertl shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  4. 3rd·19:40

    Braeden Bowman Snap Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  5. 3rd·19:39

    Giveaway by Bowen Byram

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  6. 3rd·19:09

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  7. 3rd·19:09

    Icing

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  8. 3rd·19:07

    Mattias Samuelsson Snap Shot Wide Right

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  9. 3rd·18:56

    Tomas Hertl hit Bowen Byram

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  10. 3rd·18:42

    Shea Theodore Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  11. 3rd·17:35

    Giveaway by Keegan Kolesar

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  12. 3rd·17:32

    Giveaway by Jason Zucker

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  13. 3rd·17:14

    Colton Sissons faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  14. 3rd·17:14

    Puck in Netting

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  15. 3rd·17:11

    Ryan McLeod Snap Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  16. 3rd·16:48

    Takeaway by Peyton Krebs

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  17. 3rd·15:38

    Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  18. 3rd·15:30

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  19. 3rd·15:30

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  20. 3rd·15:28

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  21. 3rd·15:16

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  22. 3rd·15:16

    Icing

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  23. 3rd·14:58

    Giveaway by Bowen Byram

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  24. 3rd·14:53

    Shea Theodore Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  25. 3rd·14:14

    Jack Quinn Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  26. 3rd·14:03

    Colton Sissons faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  27. 3rd·14:03

    Puck in Netting

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  28. 3rd·13:53

    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Noah Hanifin

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  29. 3rd·13:19

    Mitch Marner faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    VGK 2·BUF 3

  30. 3rd·13:19

    Puck in Netting

    VGK 2·BUF 3

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

29

Shots

28

0.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

2

27

Faceoffs W

34

10

Blocks

10

14

Giveaways

15

5

Takeaways

9

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +114/BUF -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR