Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BUF

VGK

28-19-14

BUF

36-19-6

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesBUF leads series 1-0VegasBUF -135

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

1Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Tage Thompson

C · #72

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:41
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:15
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	20:48
J. EichelC · #9	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	21:19
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-2	2	2	0	0	11:47
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-2	1	7	1	0	11:40
R. LavoieC · #36	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:34
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	22:11
C. ReinhardtLW · #23	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	11:01
B. SaadLW · #20	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	8:14
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	13:01
R. SmithRW · #19	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	19:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	18:16
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-1	3	0	3	0	19:10
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:26
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	2	4	1	0	15:59
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	1	2	3	1	0	20:36
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	24:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SchmidG · #40	28	3	25	.893	58:29

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	9:46
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	16:32
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	8:34
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	20:04
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	8:57
R. McLeodC · #71	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	15:51
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:35
N. OstlundC · #86	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	14:19
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	15:05
T. ThompsonC · #72	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	21:07
A. TuchRW · #89	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	19:36
J. ZuckerLW · #17	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	22:42
R. DahlinD · #26	0	2	2	1	3	1	0	25:50
M. KesselringD · #8	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:19
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	10:58
O. PowerD · #25	1	0	-1	2	0	2	0	22:54
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	25:15

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	29	2	27	.931	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF leads series 1-0

Mar 4

VGK2@

BUF3today

Mar 18

BUF2@

VGK0

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+11447%

BUF-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat VGK 3-2. T. Thompson led the way — 1 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	0	2	0	2
BUF	1	2	0	3

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · BUF won 1

VGK

BUF

Play-by-play · 325 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:58
Tomas Hertl shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:40
Braeden Bowman Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:39
Giveaway by Bowen Byram
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:09
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:09
Icing
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:07
Mattias Samuelsson Snap Shot Wide Right
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·18:56
Tomas Hertl hit Bowen Byram
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·18:42
Shea Theodore Snap Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:35
Giveaway by Keegan Kolesar
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:32
Giveaway by Jason Zucker
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:14
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:14
Puck in Netting
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:11
Ryan McLeod Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:48
Takeaway by Peyton Krebs
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:38
Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:30
Josh Norris faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:30
Goalie Stopped
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:28
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:16
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:16
Icing
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·14:58
Giveaway by Bowen Byram
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·14:53
Shea Theodore Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·14:14
Jack Quinn Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·14:03
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·14:03
Puck in Netting
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·13:53
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·13:19
Mitch Marner faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
VGK 2·BUF 3
3rd·13:19
Puck in Netting
VGK 2·BUF 3

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +114/BUF -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Vegas Golden Knights, 3–2.

VGK +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.0%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
65.0%
P(BUF win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.0%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.0%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsBuffalo Sabres

Elsewhere in the NHL