NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1EDM

OTT

29-22-9

EDM

30-24-8

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesEDM wins series 2-0VegasEDM -120

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off Ottawa Senators, 5–4 in overtime.

OTT +1.5 cashed (EDM won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

2Points

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

Leon Draisaitl

C · #29

5Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
M. AmadioRW · #22	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	19:26
D. BathersonRW · #19	2	0	-1	3	1	1	0	17:22
N. CousinsC · #21	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:37
D. CozensC · #24	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	14:58
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	7:27
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:49
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	1	2	1	5	16:47
S. HallidayC · #83	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:56
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	-1	1	2	2	2	21:00
T. StutzleC · #18	0	2	-1	0	0	0	0	19:15
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	1	-1	1	1	0	2	19:18
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:32

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
T. ChabotD · #72	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	23:18
N. JensenD · #3	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	20:26
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	-1	0	2	0	2	13:55
J. SandersonD · #85	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	25:36
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	14:19
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	22:15

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
L. UllmarkG · #35	37	5	32	.865	61:50

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
L. DraisaitlC · #29	2	3	2	4	0	1	0	23:08
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	10:21
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	10:31
Z. HymanLW · #18	1	0	0	5	0	3	0	22:51
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	13:09
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2:25
C. McDavidC · #97	0	2	0	4	1	1	0	27:37
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	1	0	1	5	2	2	0	21:18
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	-1	2	6	0	7	12:13
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:35
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:08
M. SavoieC · #22	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	16:32

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
E. BouchardD · #2	1	1	-1	4	0	1	2	28:37
M. EkholmD · #14	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	25:14
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	16:58
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	20:38
S. StastneyD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:34
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	11:18

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
C. IngramG · #39	21	4	17	.810	61:13

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

EDM wins series 2-0

Oct 21

EDM3@

OTT2

Mar 4

OTT4@

EDM5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT+10050%

EDM-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat OTT 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
OTT	2	2	0	0	4
EDM	2	0	2	1	5

Period scoring

OTT won 1 · EDM won 2

OTT

EDM

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:50
Game End
OTT 4·EDM 5
OT·1:50
End of OT
OTT 4·EDM 5
OT·1:50
Evan Bouchard Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (70), Leon Draisaitl (57)
· ·
OTT 4·EDM 5
OT·1:43
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·1:43
Goalie Stopped
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·1:41
Leon Draisaitl Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·1:32
Zach Hyman Tip-In saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·0:55
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·0:55
Brady Tkachuk Holding against Connor McDavid
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·0:47
Tim Stützle Backhand Wide Right
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·0:00
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·19:17
Artem Zub shot blocked by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·19:16
Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·19:11
Jake Sanderson Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:58
Dylan Cozens faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:58
Goalie Stopped
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:55
Nick Jensen Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:37
Giveaway by Thomas Chabot
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:35
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Adam Henrique
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:35
Zach Hyman Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (56), Evan Bouchard (53)
· ·
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:17
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·18:17
Icing
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·18:10
Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·18:08
Giveaway by Brady Tkachuk
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·18:05
Zach Hyman Snap Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·17:46
Evan Bouchard Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·16:44
Michael Amadio shot blocked by Zach Hyman
·
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·16:41
Ridly Greig Snap Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 4·EDM 3

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT +100/EDM -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Jake WalmanEDM · D
SHOT MPH99.599
Connor McDavidEDM · C
BURSTS5496
Evan BouchardEDM · D
SHOT MPH97.395
Spencer StastneyEDM · D
BURSTS6788
Darnell NurseEDM · D
BURSTS1386

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · EDM favored

Elo Static
55.3%
P(EDM win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(EDM win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(EDM win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit