Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at EDM?

The model favors EDM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1EDM

OTT

29-22-9

EDM

30-24-8

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesEDM wins series 2-0VegasEDM -120

OTT · top performer

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

2Points

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

Leon Draisaitl

C · #29

5Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	19:26
D. BathersonRW · #19	2	0	-1	3	1	1	0	17:22
N. CousinsC · #21	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:37
D. CozensC · #24	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	14:58
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	7:27
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:49
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	1	2	1	5	16:47
S. HallidayC · #83	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:56
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	-1	1	2	2	2	21:00
T. StutzleC · #18	0	2	-1	0	0	0	0	19:15
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	1	-1	1	1	0	2	19:18
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	23:18
N. JensenD · #3	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	20:26
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	-1	0	2	0	2	13:55
J. SandersonD · #85	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	25:36
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	14:19
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	22:15

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	37	5	32	.865	61:50

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DraisaitlC · #29	2	3	2	4	0	1	0	23:08
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	10:21
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	10:31
Z. HymanLW · #18	1	0	0	5	0	3	0	22:51
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	13:09
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2:25
C. McDavidC · #97	0	2	0	4	1	1	0	27:37
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	1	0	1	5	2	2	0	21:18
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	-1	2	6	0	7	12:13
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:35
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:08
M. SavoieC · #22	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	16:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	1	1	-1	4	0	1	2	28:37
M. EkholmD · #14	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	25:14
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	16:58
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	20:38
S. StastneyD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:34
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	11:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	21	4	17	.810	61:13

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

EDM wins series 2-0

Oct 21

EDM3@

OTT2

Mar 4

OTT4@

EDM5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT+10050%

EDM-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 29 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat OTT 5-4. L. Draisaitl led the way — 2 G · 3 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
OTT	2	2	0	0	4
EDM	2	0	2	1	5

Period scoring

OTT won 1 · EDM won 2

OTT

EDM

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:50
Game End
OTT 4·EDM 5
OT·1:50
End of OT
OTT 4·EDM 5
OT·1:50
Evan Bouchard Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (70), Leon Draisaitl (57)
· ·
OTT 4·EDM 5
OT·1:43
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·1:43
Goalie Stopped
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·1:41
Leon Draisaitl Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·1:32
Zach Hyman Tip-In saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·0:55
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·0:55
Brady Tkachuk Holding against Connor McDavid
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·0:47
Tim Stützle Backhand Wide Right
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·0:00
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·19:17
Artem Zub shot blocked by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·19:16
Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·19:11
Jake Sanderson Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:58
Dylan Cozens faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:58
Goalie Stopped
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:55
Nick Jensen Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:37
Giveaway by Thomas Chabot
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:35
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Adam Henrique
·
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:35
Zach Hyman Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (56), Evan Bouchard (53)
· ·
OTT 4·EDM 4
3rd·18:17
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·18:17
Icing
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·18:10
Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·18:08
Giveaway by Brady Tkachuk
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·18:05
Zach Hyman Snap Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·17:46
Evan Bouchard Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·16:44
Michael Amadio shot blocked by Zach Hyman
·
OTT 4·EDM 3
3rd·16:41
Ridly Greig Snap Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 4·EDM 3

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT +100/EDM -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off Ottawa Senators, 5–4 in overtime.

OTT +1.5 cashed (EDM won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · EDM favored

Elo Static
55.3%
P(EDM win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(EDM win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(EDM win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at EDM?: The model favors EDM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsEdmonton Oilers

Elsewhere in the NHL