Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at NJ?

The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NJ

FLA

30-28-3

30-29-2

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-1VegasFLA -120

FLA · top performer

Anton Lundell

C · #15

1Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Dougie Hamilton

D · #7

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	0	-2	3	2	1	0	18:49
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	0	1	7	1	2	9:34
A. LundellC · #15	1	0	-2	3	1	0	0	19:56
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	14:31
B. MarchandLW · #63	0	0	-1	1	2	0	4	14:12
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	10:21
S. ReinhartC · #13	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	22:33
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	1	0	0	3	1	0	13:27
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:06
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	0	-2	2	2	0	0	18:50
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	14:28
S. VilmanisLW · #95	0	0	-2	2	5	0	0	13:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. BalinskisD · #26	0	1	-2	1	0	1	0	16:55
T. BjornfotD · #22	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:47
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	-2	1	0	1	2	23:25
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	22:40
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	17:54
N. MikkolaD · #77	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	20:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BobrovskyG · #72	31	3	28	.903	57:43

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	7:48
J. BrattLW · #63	0	1	2	5	0	1	0	16:52
C. BrownRW · #16	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	17:03
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	9:26
C. GlassC · #12	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	13:14
A. GritsyukRW · #81	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:28
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	12:37
N. HischierC · #13	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	19:06
J. HughesC · #86	0	2	3	1	0	0	0	19:44
T. MeierRW · #28	0	0	2	2	3	0	0	16:03
D. MercerC · #91	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	17:23
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	7:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	3	0	1	1	8	16:17
D. HamiltonD · #7	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	18:29
L. HughesD · #43	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	23:05
S. NemecD · #17	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	20:52
B. PesceD · #22	0	0	1	2	0	3	0	22:04
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	17:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarkstromG · #25	21	1	20	.952	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NJ wins series 2-1

Oct 16

FLA1@

NJ3

Nov 21

NJ0@

FLA1

Mar 4

FLA1@

NJ5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA-12055%

NJ+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat FLA 5-1. D. Hamilton led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	1	0	0	1
NJ	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

FLA won 0 · NJ won 2

FLA

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 1·NJ 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 1·NJ 5
3rd·19:55
A.J. Greer hit Paul Cotter
·
FLA 1·NJ 5
3rd·19:20
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Tomas Nosek
·
FLA 1·NJ 5
3rd·19:20
Simon Nemec Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (15), Jack Hughes (29)
· ·
FLA 1·NJ 5
3rd·18:50
Arseny Gritsyuk Wrist Shot Wide Right
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·18:35
Arseny Gritsyuk Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·18:15
Giveaway by Brett Pesce
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·18:05
Giveaway by Jesper Bratt
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·18:01
Giveaway by Sam Bennett
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·17:53
Sam Reinhart shot blocked by Jesper Bratt
·
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·17:49
Cody Glass faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·17:49
Icing
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·17:45
Luke Hughes Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·16:28
Giveaway by Sandis Vilmanis
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·16:23
Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Nick Bjugstad
·
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·16:23
Dawson Mercer Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·16:22
Takeaway by Dawson Mercer
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·16:05
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·16:05
Puck in Netting
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·15:52
Gustav Forsling Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·15:01
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Jonas Siegenthaler
·
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·14:38
Cody Glass faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·14:38
Puck in Netting
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·14:35
Arseny Gritsyuk shot blocked by Aaron Ekblad
·
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·14:15
Sam Reinhart Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·14:13
Giveaway by Simon Nemec
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·13:53
Takeaway by Simon Nemec
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·12:49
Giveaway by Lenni Hameenaho
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·12:27
Giveaway by Matthew Tkachuk
FLA 1·NJ 3

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 5.5·FLA -120/NJ +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils held off Florida Panthers, 5–1.

NJ +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
54.9%
P(NJ win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.9%
P(NJ win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
55.1%
P(NJ win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at NJ?: The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

NJ vs FLA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jack HughesNJ
4.3± 1.7high
Timo MeierNJ
3.3± 3.0high
Brady TkachukFLA
3.1± 2.4high

Goals

Jack HughesNJ
0.6± 0.8high
Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Jack HughesNJ
1.6± 1.7high
Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Florida PanthersNew Jersey Devils

Elsewhere in the NHL