NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NJ

FLA

30-28-3

30-29-2

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 3FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-1VegasFLA -120

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils held off Florida Panthers, 5–1.

NJ +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FLA · top performer

Anton Lundell

C · #15

1Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Connor Brown

RW · #16

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

FLA30-28-3

NJ30-29-2

FLA30-28-3NJ30-29-2

FLA

30-28-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

30-29-2

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

NJ wins series 2-1

Oct 16

FLA1@

NJ3

Nov 21

NJ0@

FLA1

Mar 4

FLA1@

NJ5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA-12055%

NJ+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat FLA 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	1	0	0	1
NJ	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

FLA won 0 · NJ won 2

FLA

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 1·NJ 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 1·NJ 5
3rd·19:55
A.J. Greer hit Paul Cotter
·
FLA 1·NJ 5
3rd·19:20
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Tomas Nosek
·
FLA 1·NJ 5
3rd·19:20
Simon Nemec Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (15), Jack Hughes (29)
· ·
FLA 1·NJ 5
3rd·18:50
Arseny Gritsyuk Wrist Shot Wide Right
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·18:35
Arseny Gritsyuk Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·18:15
Giveaway by Brett Pesce
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·18:05
Giveaway by Jesper Bratt
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·18:01
Giveaway by Sam Bennett
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·17:53
Sam Reinhart shot blocked by Jesper Bratt
·
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·17:49
Cody Glass faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·17:49
Icing
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·17:45
Luke Hughes Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·16:28
Giveaway by Sandis Vilmanis
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·16:23
Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Nick Bjugstad
·
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·16:23
Dawson Mercer Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none
FLA 1·NJ 4
3rd·16:22
Takeaway by Dawson Mercer
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·16:05
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·16:05
Puck in Netting
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·15:52
Gustav Forsling Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·15:01
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Jonas Siegenthaler
·
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·14:38
Cody Glass faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·14:38
Puck in Netting
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·14:35
Arseny Gritsyuk shot blocked by Aaron Ekblad
·
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·14:15
Sam Reinhart Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·14:13
Giveaway by Simon Nemec
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·13:53
Takeaway by Simon Nemec
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·12:49
Giveaway by Lenni Hameenaho
FLA 1·NJ 3
3rd·12:27
Giveaway by Matthew Tkachuk
FLA 1·NJ 3

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 5.5·FLA -120/NJ +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497
Uvis BalinskisFLA · D
SKATE MPH23.195
Sam BennettFLA · C
DIST MI239.693
Niko MikkolaFLA · D
BURSTS6788
Sam ReinhartFLA · C
DIST MI212.684

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NJ win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

NJ vs FLA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jack HughesNJ
4.3± 1.7high
Timo MeierNJ
3.3± 3.0high
Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high

Goals

Jack HughesNJ
0.6± 0.8high
Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Jack HughesNJ
1.6± 1.7high
Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands