TB#15 · National Football Conference

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-0 (0.0%) · -

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Elo rating

#18 of 32

Elo rating 1489.8 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings

Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Final 5 · 2026

2025-12-07 → 2026-01-03 · Full ATS profile →

latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01

Model picks on TB

No graded picks for this league yet

Graded snap by snap

How good were they, snap to snap?

Their offense ranked 16th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 956 graded plays; the defense ranked 20th across 873.

EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.

956 off plays · 873 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds

OFFENSE · 2025 REG

+0.015

Team EPA per play

16th of 32

lg avg +0.009

DEFENSE · 2025 REG

+0.043

Team EPA per play allowed

20th of 32

lg avg +0.014

The full split956/873 plays

Offense — team-wide, every graded snap

All plays+0.01552

16th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG +0.124 (4th)

Success43.6%42

19th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 49.4% (3rd)

Explosive8.2%71

10th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 9.5% (8th)

Dropbacks+0.06361

13th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.166 (7th)

Rushes-0.05739

20th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG +0.056 (5th)

Defense — allowed, lower is better

All plays+0.04339

20th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG +0.038 (22nd)

Success45.8%39

20th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 45.4% (22nd)

Explosive8.6%26

24th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 7.8% (13th)

Dropbacks+0.10632

22nd of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.120 (26th)

Rushes-0.07471

10th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.129 (8th)

Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.

Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.

Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.015 · 2024 REG +0.124 · -0.109

Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.038 · +0.005

Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.

nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 956 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1

nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.

Stat leaders

Who carries them

Passing yards

1Baker Mayfield26 TD3,693
2Teddy Bridgewater0 TD62

Rushing yards

1Bucky Irving1 TD588
2Rachaad White4 TD572
3Baker Mayfield1 TD382
4Sean Tucker7 TD320
5Tez Johnson0 TD22

Receiving yards

1Emeka Egbuka6 TD938
2Cade Otton1 TD572
3Sterling Shepard1 TD371
4Mike Evans3 TD368
5Chris Godwin Jr.2 TD360

Receptions

1Emeka Egbuka17 G63
2Cade Otton15 G59
3Rachaad White17 G40
4Sterling Shepard13 G39
5Chris Godwin Jr.9 G33

Total TDs

Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.

Yards per carry

1Baker Mayfield55 car6.9
2Rachaad White132 car4.3
3Sean Tucker86 car3.7
4Bucky Irving173 car3.4

Min 50 carries.

2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries

Under center

What the QB is worth

QB value (our estimate)

Baker Mayfield

543 att · n=42 qualified QBs

Our QBR estimate48.7

EPA / play+0.063
Accuracy +-1.6%
Pressure0.1%

Built on +0.063 EPA/play and -1.6% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.

Box-score power tier · league of 32

Where they rank

Middle

avg rank 18.6

YDS

21st

Total yards

PASS

19th

Pass yards

RUSH

21st

Rush yards

PTS

18th

Points

TO

14th

Turnovers

Offensive profile · 2025

How the offense plays

Per-game · 17 weeks

Identity · Pass-leaning

66% pass · 34% rush

PASS

RUSH

Total yards

335vs 342 yds/GLeague avg

Passing yards

221vs 225 yds/GLeague avg

Rushing yards

115vs 117 yds/GLeague avg

Points scored

22.9vs 23.5 pts/GLeague avg

Turnovers

0.80vs 0.90 TO/GSlight edge

Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.

2026 Draft Class · 7 picks