Recent form
2-8
PHX -5.7 vs TOR -9.9 margin
PHX brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Toronto Tempo at Phoenix Mercury
TOR
TOR
11-28
PregameSat, 10:00 PM EDTAZ Family Sports Net, Merc+, WNBA League Pass
PHX
PHX
13-26
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
oronto Tempo visit Phoenix Mercury Saturday at 8/29 - 10:00 PM EDT.
Vegas opened PHX as a 8.5-point favorite with the total at 177.5. PHX's moneyline implies a 80% break-even, TOR the inverse.
For bettors: the PHX side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 177.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line just movedMoneyline ↘ 15 over 2.4h41m ago
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
44
FG %
44
Season series
Series tied 1-1
May 20TOR98@PHX90
TOR98@PHX90Jun 27PHX89@TOR80
PHX89@TOR80Aug 30TOR@PHXtoday
TOR@PHXtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PHX -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
177.5
High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 2.4h
Moneyline
TOR+32024%PHX-41080%15· 2.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
177.5
-1.0 since open
Scouting report
TOR @ PHX
StorylineTOR dropped 3 straight · PHX lost 4 in a row.
Rest going in
PHX +1 day
TORStandard
1 day
last game Aug 28
PHXStandard
2 days
last game Aug 27
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
PHX -8.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
177.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
PHX -410
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
TORmetricPHX
11-28
Record
13-26
#6
Conf rank
#7
-6.9
Pt diff
-4.0
L3
Streak
L4
1-9
Last 10
2-8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
PHX -8.5·O/U 177.5·TOR +320/PHX -410
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
PHX vs TOR.
PHX has dropped 4 straight; TOR is 1-9 over its last 10.
68.7%
model · PHX win prob
Recent form
- PHX2–8-5.7
- TOR1–9-9.9
Situational
- PHX2d rest
- TOR1d restB2B
- +1.0d differential
PHX has 1 more rest day. PHX has 0 straight road games; TOR has 2.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Kahleah CopperPHX22.1points · ±8.7
Kahleah Copper · 22.1 pts · last-10 23 vs season 20.7.
- Marina MabreyTOR20.7points · ±8.0
Marina Mabrey · 20.7 pts · last-10 20.6 vs season 20.9.
- Alyssa ThomasPHX13.9points · ±4.7
Alyssa Thomas · 13.9 pts · last-10 13.7 vs season 14.1.
Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2
PHX is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-05-19TOR @ PHX98–90
- 2026-06-27PHX @ TOR89–80
Line move
open -395→-410toward PHX
The market has moved 0.6pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
64.4%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
66.8%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
63.1%
P(PHX win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
61.8%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.14 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-0.56
CLV pp
Open price
+310
Close price
+320
Open no-vig
23.4%
Close no-vig
22.8%
Market faded the model
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at PHX?
- The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
PHX vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
140
projections · 90 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX22.1± 8.7high
- Marina MabreyTOR20.7± 8.0high
- Kelsey PlumPHX19.1± 12.3medium
Rebounds
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.7± 3.8high
- Aneesah MorrowTOR7.2± 4.2high
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR6.6± 4.0high
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.3± 2.1high
- Julie AllemandTOR5.6± 3.0high
- Kelsey PlumPHX4.9± 3.7medium
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.1± 1.4high
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2medium
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR0.8± 1.1high
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.4± 1.4high
- Julie AllemandTOR1.2± 1.2high
- Laura JuskaiteTOR1.1± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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