Toronto Tempo at Phoenix Mercury
TOR
8-9
PHX
5-13
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
oronto Tempo visit Phoenix Mercury Saturday at 8/29 - 10:00 PM EDT. PHX is 3-5 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
44
FG %
43
Season series
TOR leads series 1-0
TOR98@PHX90PHX@TORupcomingTOR@PHXtodayScouting report
TOR @ PHX
Tale of the tape
8-9
Record
5-13
#5
Conf rank
#7
-2.4
Pt diff
-3.7
L1
Streak
L1
5-5
Last 10
3-7
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.2%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 10 high confidence
Points
- Marina MabreyTOR19.9± 9.6medium
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.3± 10.1medium
- Brittney SykesTOR18.1± 10.6medium
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.3± 3.0high
- Alyssa ThomasPHX6.1± 2.8medium
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR6.0± 3.4low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.6± 2.6medium
- Marina MabreyTOR4.0± 2.3medium
- Julie AllemandTOR3.8± 3.0low
Blocks
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.3± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.1± 1.1high
- DeWanna BonnerPHX0.7± 0.9high
Steals
- Laura JuskaiteTOR1.7± 1.5medium
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Julie AllemandTOR1.6± 1.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
TOR
league avg
PHX
43.8%
FG%
44.7
42.7%
35.0%
3PT %
33.5
32.4%
89.6
PPG
85.9
82.5
19.4
Assists / G
18.0
19.4
12.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.4