Park factor
95 total idx
Oakland Coliseum run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Baltimore Orioles at Athletics
BAL
BAL
65-69
PregameSat, 10:05 PM EDTMLB.TV
ATH
ATH
53-81
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketSutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Shane Baz
SP · #34
4-14
W-L
4.04
ERA
1.35
WHIP
135
K
151.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTBL(4-14)5.2 IP3 ER3 K
vsNYYL(4-13)6.1 IP3 ER10 K
@MINL(4-12)3.0 IP5 ER2 K
Home starter
Jack Perkins
RP · #50
3-9
W-L
6.68
ERA
1.48
WHIP
104
K
90.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@HOUW(3-9)5.0 IP1 ER6 K
@KC-3.2 IP0 ER4 K
vsTBL(2-9)5.0 IP6 ER2 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob58% / 42%
LeanAway · 8pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesATH leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ATH vs BAL.
ATH is 4-6 recently; BAL is 4-6.
41.7%
model · ATH win prob
Recent form
- ATH4–6-1.1
- BAL4–6+0.2
Situational
- ATH3d rest
- BAL2d rest
- +1.0d differential
ATH has 1 more rest day. ATH has 0 straight road games; BAL has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.4pp
Players to watch
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5strikeouts · ±1.7
Trevor Rogers · 5.5 K · last-10 6 vs season 4.8.
- Shane BazBAL5.3strikeouts · ±3.1
Shane Baz · 5.3 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 5.2.
- Jacob LopezATH5.0strikeouts · ±2.6
Jacob Lopez · 5 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 4.3.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
39.9%
ensemble · BAL favored
Elo Static
44.1%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.9%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.4%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.58 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATH vs BAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 100 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gage JumpATH5.7± 3.8medium
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5± 1.7high
- Shane BazBAL5.3± 3.1high
Hits
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.4± 1.1high
- Henry BolteATH1.1± 1.1high
- Jeff McNeilATH1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.8± 2.4high
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL2.1± 2.7high
- Tommy WhiteATH1.7± 1.9high
RBIs
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1.1± 1.6high
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.1± 1.4high
- Brian ServenATH0.9± 1.2medium
Earned runs
- Jeffrey SpringsATH3.8± 1.8high
- Kade MorrisATH3.8± 4.8low
- Gage JumpATH3.1± 2.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BAL
league avg
ATH
.717
OPS
.719
.721
.318
OBP
.318
.319
4.54
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.37
4.21
Team ERA
◀
4.16
5.46
1.34
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.50
8.1
K / 9
8.5
▶8.5
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 29BAL★
Orioles
69-91
vs58.4%BAL
ATH
Athletics
62-95
BAL 58.4%win prob41.6% ATH
BAL 1475 · ATH 1410Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Red SoxYankees8/29 - 1:05 PM EDT
- DodgersTigers8/29 - 1:10 PM EDT
- White SoxTwins8/29 - 2:10 PM EDT
- PiratesCardinals8/29 - 2:15 PM EDT
- RedsCubs8/29 - 2:20 PM EDT
- MarinersBlue Jays8/29 - 3:07 PM EDT
- MarlinsNationals8/29 - 4:05 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/29 - 4:05 PM EDT
- RockiesBraves8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AstrosMets8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RoyalsGuardians8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- PadresRays8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- Red SoxYankees8/29 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RangersBrewers8/29 - 7:15 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/29 - 10:05 PM EDT
- PhilliesAngels8/29 - 10:07 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
