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JAX#8 · American Football Conference

Jacksonville Jaguars

0-0 (0.0%) · -

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Elo rating

#11 of 32

Elo rating 1542.8 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings

Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Final 5 · 2026

2025-12-14 → 2026-01-11 · Full ATS profile →

latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01

Model picks on JAX

No graded picks for this league yet

Graded snap by snap

How good were they, snap to snap?

Their offense ranked 12th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 877 graded plays; the defense ranked 8th across 834.

EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.

877 off plays · 834 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds

OFFENSE · 2025 REG

+0.047

Team EPA per play

12th of 32

lg avg +0.009

DEFENSE · 2025 REG

-0.070

Team EPA per play allowed

8th of 32

lg avg +0.014

The full split877/834 plays

Offense — team-wide, every graded snap

All plays+0.04765

12th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG -0.014 (18th)

Success46.2%74

9th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 42.1% (21st)

Explosive7.2%45

18th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 8.7% (11th)

Dropbacks+0.07465

12th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.036 (19th)

Rushes+0.00374

9th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.091 (20th)

Defense — allowed, lower is better

All plays-0.07077

8th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG +0.104 (30th)

Success42.9%68

11th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 44.8% (19th)

Explosive5.9%90

4th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 9.0% (27th)

Dropbacks-0.04674

9th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.169 (30th)

Rushes-0.11994

3rd of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG +0.006 (26th)

Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.

Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.

Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.047 · 2024 REG -0.014 · +0.061

Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG -0.070 · 2024 REG +0.104 · -0.174

Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.

nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 877 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1

nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.

Stat leaders

Who carries them

Passing yards

1Trevor Lawrence29 TD4,007
2Nick Mullens0 TD19

Rushing yards

1Travis Etienne7 TD1,107
2Trevor Lawrence9 TD359
3Bhayshul Tuten5 TD307
4LeQuint Allen Jr.0 TD94
5Dyami Brown0 TD30

Receiving yards

1Parker Washington5 TD847
2Brian Thomas Jr.2 TD707
3Brenton Strange3 TD540
4Jakobi Meyers3 TD483
5Travis Hunter1 TD298

Receptions

1Parker Washington16 G58
2Brian Thomas Jr.14 G48
3Brenton Strange12 G46
4Jakobi Meyers9 G42
5Travis Etienne17 G36

Total TDs

1Trevor Lawrence17 G38
2Travis Etienne17 G13
3Bhayshul Tuten15 G7
4Parker Washington16 G5
5Tim Patrick13 G3

Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.

Yards per carry

1Trevor Lawrence82 car4.4
2Travis Etienne260 car4.3
3Bhayshul Tuten83 car3.7

Min 50 carries.

2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries

Under center

What the QB is worth

QB value (our estimate)

Trevor Lawrence

590 att · n=42 qualified QBs

Our QBR estimate50.9

EPA / play+0.097
Accuracy +-2.8%
Pressure0.2%

Built on +0.097 EPA/play and -2.8% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.

Box-score power tier · league of 32

Where they rank

Middle

avg rank 13.2

YDS

11th

Total yards

PASS

11th

Pass yards

RUSH

20th

Rush yards

PTS

8th

Points

16th

Turnovers

Offensive profile · 2025

How the offense plays

Per-game · 17 weeks

Identity · Pass-leaning

67% pass · 33% rush

PASS

RUSH

Total yards

352vs 342 yds/GLeague avg

Passing yards

237vs 225 yds/GSlight edge

Rushing yards

115vs 117 yds/GLeague avg

Points scored

28.2vs 23.5 pts/GAbove avg

Turnovers

0.90vs 0.90 TO/GLeague avg

Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.

2026 Draft Class · 7 picks

The new arrivals.

RND 2 · PICK 56

Nate Boerkircher

TE · Texas A&M

RND 3 · PICK 81

Albert Regis

DT · Texas A&M

RND 3 · PICK 88

Emmanuel Pregnon

G · Oregon

RND 3 · PICK 100

Jalen Huskey

SAF · Maryland

RND 4 · PICK 119

Wesley Williams

EDGE · Duke

RND 5 · PICK 164

Tanner Koziol

TE · Houston

RND 6 · PICK 191

Josh Cameron

WR · Baylor

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

3 moves

Jun 4
Signed OL Trystan Colon and CB Dane Jackson to contracts. Placed CB Keith Taylor on injured reserve. Waived OL Sal Wormley.
Jun 1
Signed DT Quinton Bohanna to a contract.
May 21
Signed TE Nate Boerkircher toa rookie contract.

Source · ESPN

Offense · 46