Park factor
98 total idx
Angel Stadium run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels
PHI
PHI
75-60
PregameSat, 10:07 PM EDTMLB.TV
LAA
LAA
52-83
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketAngel Stadium · Anaheim, California
Line movement
200 snapshots
LAA spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
LAA no-vig %
32.7%
open 32.5% · +0.2
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Cristopher Sanchez
SP · #61
16-4
W-L
2.62
ERA
1.22
WHIP
194
K
168.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSTL-6.2 IP4 ER7 K
vsMIAW(16-4)6.0 IP1 ER6 K
@STL-6.0 IP0 ER7 K
Home starter
Ryan Johnson
SP · #32
3-7
W-L
5.75
ERA
1.43
WHIP
50
K
67.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@TEXW(3-7)7.0 IP0 ER3 K
vsKCL(2-7)5.1 IP2 ER4 K
vsTEX-4.1 IP1 ER5 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8
Money-243 / +196
Model edge
Win prob77% / 23%
LeanAway · 27pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesPHI leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take PHI on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
LAA vs PHI.
LAA has dropped 5 straight; PHI is 8-2 over its last 10.
23.2%
model · LAA win prob
Recent form
- LAA3–7+0.9
- PHI8–2+1.6
Situational
- LAA1d restB2B
- PHI1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. LAA has 0 straight road games; PHI has 4.
Model angle
+9.2ppon PHI
PHI's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Travel burden is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.2pp
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▲Venue split+1.2pp
Players to watch
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.7strikeouts · ±3.1
Jesus Luzardo · 7.7 K · last-10 7.9 vs season 7.3.
- Zack WheelerPHI7.1strikeouts · ±3.3
Zack Wheeler · 7.1 K · last-10 7.4 vs season 6.7.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.4strikeouts · ±2.8
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.4 K · last-10 6 vs season 7.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
LAA is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-28PHI @ LAA5–3
Line move
open +194→+192flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
20.4%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
34.5%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
30.7%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
33.1%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.56 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAA vs PHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 104 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.7± 3.1high
- Zack WheelerPHI7.1± 3.3high
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.4± 2.8high
Hits
- Zach NetoLAA1.4± 1.4high
- Luis ArraezPHI1.3± 1.1high
- Bryce HarperPHI1.2± 1.0high
Total bases
- Zach NetoLAA2.4± 3.1high
- Bryce HarperPHI2.1± 1.9high
- Kyle SchwarberPHI1.9± 2.3high
RBIs
- Edmundo SosaPHI1.1± 1.6high
- Alec BohmPHI1.0± 1.4high
- Zach NetoLAA0.9± 2.1high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.4± 2.0high
- Yusei KikuchiLAA3.1± 2.9low
- Grayson RodriguezLAA2.9± 2.0medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PHI
league avg
LAA
.716
OPS
◀
.718
.682
.313
OBP
◀
.318
.309
4.54
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.08
4.10
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.28
1.30
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.35
10.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
9.1
The One model★ Lock
Sat, Aug 29PHI★
Phillies
93-74
vs76.9%PHI
LAA
Angels
60-98
PHI 76.9%win prob23.1% LAA
PHI 1547 · LAA 1412Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Red SoxYankees8/29 - 1:05 PM EDT
- DodgersTigers8/29 - 1:10 PM EDT
- White SoxTwins8/29 - 2:10 PM EDT
- PiratesCardinals8/29 - 2:15 PM EDT
- RedsCubs8/29 - 2:20 PM EDT
- MarinersBlue Jays8/29 - 3:07 PM EDT
- MarlinsNationals8/29 - 4:05 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/29 - 4:05 PM EDT
- RockiesBraves8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AstrosMets8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RoyalsGuardians8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- PadresRays8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- Red SoxYankees8/29 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RangersBrewers8/29 - 7:15 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/29 - 10:05 PM EDT
- OriolesAthletics8/29 - 10:05 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
