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Stanford Stadium · Stanford, CA

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Stanford Cardinal

HAW
HAW

HAW

0-0

PregameSat, 7:00 PM EDTACC Network · Stanford Stadium
STAN
STAN

STAN

0-0

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Line movement

+1.3pp

STAN move

Market move toward STAN signals real support beyond opener prices this morning.

Model rank

+125.4

STAN Elo vs HAW Elo

HAW owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing STAN uphill early today again.

Recent form

4-2

HAW +5.5 vs STAN -11.4 margin

HAW brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Scouting report · pre-game

STAN vs HAW.

STAN is 2-5 recently; HAW is 4-2.

40.0%

model · STAN win prob

Recent form

  • STAN25-11.4
  • HAW42+5.5

Situational

  • STAN273d rest
  • HAW248d rest
  • +25.0d differential

STAN has 25 more rest days. STAN has 0 straight road games; HAW has 0.

Model angle

No actionable edge surfaced.

Line move

open -175-185toward STAN

The market has moved 1.3pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

NCAAFSat, Aug 298/29 - 7:00 PM EDTVegasSTAN -4.5

Preview · NCAAF

awai'i Rainbow Warriors visit Stanford Cardinal Saturday at 8/29 - 7:00 PM EDT.

Vegas opened STAN as a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 48.5. STAN's moneyline implies a 66% break-even, HAW the inverse.

For bettors: the STAN side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 48.5 total reads defensive vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STAN -4.5

Between 3 and 7

Total

48.5

Defensive · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HAWHAW+16438%
STANSTAN-19866%

13· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

+1.0 since open

Total

48.5

-2.0 since open

Betting line

STAN -4.5·O/U 48.5·HAW +164/STAN -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

SP+ matchup · 2025

Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings

cfbfastR

HAW

HAW

league avg

STAN

STAN

+1.7

SP+ composite

+0.0

-11.8

27.3

Offense rating

28.0

18.4

27.3

Defense rating

28.0

28.6

+1.7

Special teams

+0.0

-1.7