Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
KC#9 · American Football Conference
Kansas City Chiefs
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#17 of 32
Elo rating 1512.9 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2025-12-07 → 2026-01-04 · Full ATS profile →
Lost by 10 vs HOU, 10-20, 2025-12-07. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 3 vs LAC, 13-16, 2025-12-14. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 17 at TEN, 9-26, 2025-12-21. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 7 vs DEN, 13-20, 2025-12-25. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 2 at LV, 12-14, 2026-01-04. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 15th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 940 graded plays; the defense ranked 16th across 896.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
940 off plays · 896 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.018
Team EPA per play
15th of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.002
Team EPA per play allowed
16th of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split940/896 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays+0.01855
15th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG +0.088 (9th)
Success44.9%58
14th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 48.9% (4th)
Explosive6.1%6
30th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 5.5% (32nd)
Dropbacks+0.03842
19th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.153 (11th)
Rushes-0.02365
12th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.028 (12th)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays+0.00252
16th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG -0.009 (13th)
Success44.5%48
17th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 42.3% (8th)
Explosive6.6%74
9th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 7.1% (7th)
Dropbacks+0.06942
19th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.049 (15th)
Rushes-0.09684
6th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.112 (10th)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.018 · 2024 REG +0.088 · -0.070
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG +0.002 · 2024 REG -0.009 · +0.011
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 940 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1Patrick Mahomes22 TD3,587
- 2Chris Oladokun1 TD235
- 3Shane Buechele0 TD88
- 4Gardner Minshew0 TD37
Rushing yards
- 1Kareem Hunt8 TD611
- 2Isiah Pacheco1 TD462
- 3Patrick Mahomes5 TD422
- 4Brashard Smith0 TD151
- 5Xavier Worthy0 TD87
Receiving yards
- 1Travis Kelce5 TD851
- 2Marquise Brown5 TD587
- 3Rashee Rice5 TD571
- 4Xavier Worthy1 TD532
- 5Tyquan Thornton3 TD438
Receptions
- 1Travis Kelce17 G76
- 2Rashee Rice8 G53
- 3Marquise Brown16 G49
- 4Xavier Worthy14 G42
- 5JuJu Smith-Schuster17 G33
Total TDs
- 1Patrick Mahomes14 G27
- 2Kareem Hunt17 G9
- 3Rashee Rice8 G6
- 4Travis Kelce17 G5
- 5Marquise Brown16 G5
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
Yards per carry
- 1Patrick Mahomes64 car6.6
- 2Isiah Pacheco118 car3.9
- 3Kareem Hunt163 car3.7
Min 50 carries.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
Patrick Mahomes
502 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate60.6
- EPA / play+0.182
- Accuracy +-2.9%
- Pressure0.2%
Built on +0.182 EPA/play and -2.9% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Middle
avg rank 19.0
YDS
20th
Total yards
PASS
16th
Pass yards
RUSH
25th
Rush yards
PTS
21st
Points
TO
13th
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Pass-leaning
69% pass · 31% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
339vs 342 yds/GLeague avg
Passing yards
232vs 225 yds/GLeague avg
Rushing yards
107vs 117 yds/GSlight gap
Points scored
21.5vs 23.5 pts/GSlight gap
Turnovers
0.80vs 0.90 TO/GSlight edge
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 6 picks
The new arrivals.
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 12
Acquired a 2027 sixth-round pick from Atlanta Falcons for T Wanya Morris and a 2027 seventh-round pick.
- Jun 9
Waived DB Marlen Sewell. Signed S L'Jarius Sneed to a contract.
- May 21
Signed R Mason Thomas to a rookie contract.
- May 20
Signed CB Jadon Canady to a rookie contract.
Source · ESPN
Offense · 45
The attack
A. Armstrong
WR · #85
B. Smith
RB · #24
C.J. Hanson
G · #61
C. Oladokun
QB · #19
C. Godrick
OT · #72
C. Humphrey
C · #52
C. Allen
WR · #13
E. Smith
RB · #35
E. Demercado
RB · #25
E. Johnson
RB · #10
E. Pole
OT · #79
E. Driskell
OT · #75
G. Nussmeier
QB · #14
H. Nourzad
C · #60
J. De Jesus
WR · #80
J. Briningstool
TE · #88
J. Royals
WR · #11
J. Wiley
TE · #12
J. Brownlee
WR · #89
J. Ott
RB · #42
J. Moore
OT · #77
J. Caldwell
WR · #8
J. Holiday
WR · #82
J. Gyllenborg
TE · #84
J. Simmons
OT · #71
J. Thompson
G · #62
J. Fields
QB · #6
K. Benson
OT · #70
K. Walker III
RB · #9
K. Suamataia
OT · #76
M. Pline
TE · #46
M. Waletzko
OT · #73
M. Caliendo
G · #66
N. Remigio
WR · #81
N. Gray
TE · #83
O. Evans
WR · #7
P. Mahomes
QB · #15
P. Nygra
OT · #51
R. Rice
WR · #4
T. Kelce
TE · #87
T. Watson
TE · #49
T. Smith
G · #65
T. Thornton
WR · #2
X. Loyd
WR · #17
X. Worthy
WR · #1
Defense · 43
The stop unit
A. Gilman
S · #17
A. McNeill
DT · #93
A. Dunn Jr.
DE · #49
A. Gillotte
DE · #97
B. Phillips
CB · #45
C. Conner
S · #27
C. Jones
DT · #95
C. Roland-Wallace
CB · #30
C. Brevard
DT · #96
C. Christiansen
LB · #48
C. McDonald
LB · #44
D. Perkins-McAllister
CB · #19
D. Payne
DT · #90
D. Singleton
S · #25
D. Tranquill
LB · #23
E. Downs
LB · #40
F. Anudike-Uzomah
DE · #91
G. Karlaftis
DE · #56
J. Cochrane
LB · #43
J. Hicks
S · #21
J. Canady
CB · #22
J. Bassa
LB · #31
K. Kohou
CB · #26
K. Elam
CB · #24
K. Arnold
LB · #53
K. Knowles
CB · #35
K. Tonga
DT · #92
K. Fulton
CB · #8
L. Sneed
CB · #38
M. Delane
CB · #5
M. Harris
DT · #68
M. Smith Jr.
CB · #39
N. Bolton
LB · #32
N. Williams
CB · #20
O. Norman-Lott
DT · #55
P. Woods
DT · #99
R. Thomas
DE · #51
T. McCalister
S · #34
T. Smith
DE · #57
V. Anthony Jr.
DE · #98
W. Bissainthe
LB · #59
X. Nwankpa
S · #29
Z. Vedder
CB · #47
Special teams · 3
