NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+34ATL

ATL

45-33

141107

BKN

18-59

NBAFri, Apr 3FinalSeriesATL wins series 4-0VegasATL -16.5

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks went into Brooklyn Nets and beat them, 141–107. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -16.5 cashed (won by 34). Total cleared the 225.5 OVER by 22.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

CJ McCollum

G · #3

25.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BKN · top performer

Malachi Smith

G · #18

13.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	27	15	5-11	2-5	3-4	+37	7	4
J. JohnsonF · #1	28	18	6-12	1-2	5-7	+28	11	5
C. McCollumG · #3	25	25	8-12	4-7	5-6	+15	2	7
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	34	21	8-16	4-9	1-1	+21	4	3
D. DanielsG · #5	29	11	5-8	1-2	—	+29	4	6
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	15	13	4-5	3-4	2-2	+16	2	1
J. KumingaF · #0	21	12	4-6	3-3	1-2	+8	2	1
M. GueyeF · #18	17	5	2-3	—	1-1	-7	4	1
A. NewellF · #14	5	5	2-4	1-2	—	+7	1	2
Z. RisacherF · #10	13	2	1-3	0-2	—	-6	1	0
C. KolokoC · #35	4	5	2-2	—	1-1	+4	1	0
B. HieldG · #8	4	0	0-2	—	—	+4	0	0
G. VincentG · #4	10	3	1-3	1-3	—	+6	0	4
K. WallaceG · #2	4	4	2-2	—	—	+4	1	1
C. HoustanG · #33	4	2	1-1	—	—	+4	1	1
Team		141	51-90	20-39	19-24		41	36

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. ClowneyF · #21	21	12	4-7	0-2	4-4	-17	4	1
N. ClaxtonC · #33	25	16	7-10	0-1	2-2	-19	5	2
T. MannG · #14	23	8	3-5	2-3	—	-14	2	1
D. PowellG · #4	29	6	2-7	0-2	2-2	-25	2	4
N. TraoreG · #88	29	13	5-11	2-6	1-2	-23	2	4
Bench
T. ScottF · #13	8	6	2-3	1-1	1-1	-11	2	1
Z. WilliamsF · #1	21	8	2-10	1-3	3-4	-15	3	3
J. MinottF · #00	21	10	3-7	2-5	2-2	-12	3	0
C. JohnsonF · #31	23	11	5-7	—	1-2	-11	6	4
M. SmithG · #18	17	15	5-8	4-5	1-1	-5	2	0
B. SarafG · #77	25	2	1-4	—	—	-18	2	4
Team		107	39-79	12-28	17-20		33	24
DNP: J. Wilson, E.J. Liddell, O. Agbaji, T. Etienne

DNP: J. Wilson, E.J. Liddell, O. Agbaji, T. Etienne

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

ATL wins series 4-0

Oct 29

ATL117@

BKN112

Feb 22

BKN104@

ATL115

Mar 12

BKN97@

ATL108

Apr 3

ATL141@

BKN107today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -16.5

Between 10 and —

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-180095%

BKN+10009%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -16.5↗SpreadBet ATL -16.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

16.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ BKN

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 12:00

ATL

C. McCollum

Game leader · 25 min

25 PTS · 2 REB · 7 AST

BKN

M. Smith

Game leader · 17 min

15 PTS · 2 REB · 0 AST

How it ended

ATL beat BKN 141-107. C. McCollum paced them with 25 PTS, 2 REB, 7 AST. ATL outscored the other side 43-22 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BKN vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 28 REB · 25 AST

GS 85

Bench(10)

51 PTS · 13 REB · 11 AST

GS 50

BKNstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST

GS 38

Bench(6)

52 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST

GS 42

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 35-25

+8pp→ 92% WP

Corey Kispert · enters the game for Zaccharie Risacher

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	35	36	27	43	141
BKN	25	30	30	22	107

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · BKN won 1

McCollum 8

Smith 6

Johnson 9

Smith 6

McCollum 7

Claxton 8

Kispert 13

Scott 6

ATL

BKN

Shooting comparison

ATL

BKN

57%

51-90

49%

39-79

51%

20-39

3PT

43%

12-28

79%

19-24

85%

17-20

Play-by-play · 453 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 141·BKN 107
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 141·BKN 107
Q4·4.2
Ben Saraf bad pass turnover (Keaton Wallace steals)
·
ATL 141·BKN 107
Q4·13.1
Caleb Houstan makes 9-foot turnaround jump shot (Asa Newell assists)
·
ATL 141·BKN 107
Q4·26.6
Keaton Wallace defensive rebound
ATL 139·BKN 107
Q4·30.1
Trevon Scott misses driving floating jump shot
ATL 139·BKN 107
Q4·43.9
Drake Powell defensive rebound
ATL 139·BKN 107
Q4·43.9
Buddy Hield misses 21-foot running jump shot
ATL 139·BKN 107
Q4·46.3
Christian Koloko defensive rebound
ATL 139·BKN 107
Q4·49.7
Ben Saraf misses driving layup
ATL 139·BKN 107
Q4·59.9
Keaton Wallace makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Caleb Houstan assists)
·
ATL 139·BKN 107
Q4·1:16
Nolan Traore traveling turnover
ATL 137·BKN 107
Q4·1:24
Asa Newell makes two point shot
ATL 137·BKN 107
Q4·1:25
Asa Newell offensive rebound
ATL 135·BKN 107
Q4·1:28
Chaney Johnson blocks Asa Newell 's 1-foot driving dunk
· ·
ATL 135·BKN 107
Q4·1:37
Trevon Scott makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)
·
ATL 135·BKN 107
Q4·1:53
Christian Koloko makes 1-foot dunk (Keaton Wallace assists)
·
ATL 135·BKN 104
Q4·2:06
Chaney Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
·
ATL 133·BKN 104
Q4·2:06
Nets offensive team rebound
ATL 133·BKN 103
Q4·2:06
Chaney Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2
·
ATL 133·BKN 103
Q4·2:06
Asa Newell shooting foul
ATL 133·BKN 103
Q4·2:27
Christian Koloko makes free throw 1 of 1
ATL 133·BKN 103
Q4·2:27
Ben Saraf shooting foul
ATL 132·BKN 103
Q4·2:27
Christian Koloko makes 4-foot reverse layup (Asa Newell assists)
·
ATL 132·BKN 103
Q4·2:44
Trevon Scott makes free throw 1 of 1
ATL 130·BKN 103
Q4·2:44
Christian Koloko shooting foul
ATL 130·BKN 102
Q4·2:44
Trevon Scott makes 1-foot running dunk (Chaney Johnson assists)
· ·
ATL 130·BKN 102
Q4·2:46
Chaney Johnson defensive rebound
·
ATL 130·BKN 100
Q4·2:49
Buddy Hield misses 21-foot jumper
ATL 130·BKN 100
Q4·3:03
Nolan Traore loose ball foul
ATL 130·BKN 100

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

BKN

Home

51-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-79

FG %

20-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-28

19-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-20

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

ATL -16.5·O/U 225.5·ATL -1800/BKN +1000

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.297
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.297
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.395
CJ McCollumATL · G
DRIVES10.288
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL · G
USG%23.582

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

BKN

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.0%

47.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

44.3%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

105.9

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR