NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11ORL

ORL

41-36

138127

DAL

24-53

NBAFri, Apr 3FinalSeriesORL wins series 2-0VegasORL -6.5

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 138–127.

ORL -6.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 239.5 OVER by 25.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ORL · top performer

Desmond Bane

G · #3

27.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Cooper Flagg

F · #32

44.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	31	10	4-10	1-1	1-5	-9	7	5
F. WagnerF · #22	17	18	8-12	0-3	2-2	+18	4	1
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	36	28	8-16	2-3	10-10	+6	6	3
D. BaneG · #3	33	27	8-13	3-5	8-9	+27	7	5
J. SuggsG · #4	31	19	8-12	3-6	—	0	4	9
Bench
J. CainF · #8	21	8	2-3	1-2	3-3	+7	4	4
T. da SilvaF · #23	29	19	6-11	3-4	4-6	-6	5	1
N. PendaF · #93	2	0	—	—	—	-1	1	1
G. BitadzeC · #35	12	2	0-1	—	2-2	+5	4	2
J. CarterG · #2	20	5	2-4	1-2	—	+6	1	4
J. HowardG · #13	5	2	1-1	—	—	+3	0	0
J. RichardsonG · #11	2	0	0-1	—	—	-1	0	0
Team		138	47-84	14-26	30-37		43	35
DNP: M. Wagner

DNP: M. Wagner

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GaffordF · #21	20	7	2-3	—	3-6	+3	3	1
N. MarshallF · #13	24	9	3-12	1-3	2-2	-16	4	2
C. FlaggF · #32	34	51	19-30	6-9	7-7	-2	6	3
M. ChristieG · #00	29	14	4-7	3-6	3-3	+8	5	3
R. NembhardG · #9	22	2	1-6	0-4	—	0	7	5
Bench
K. MiddletonF · #20	12	0	0-4	0-3	—	-10	1	1
D. PowellF · #7	25	0	—	—	—	-11	5	1
T. SmithF · #23	6	1	0-2	0-2	1-2	-2	2	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	22	18	7-13	4-10	—	-11	1	2
B. WilliamsG · #10	26	23	7-15	0-3	9-11	-11	2	5
J. PoulakidasG · #1	19	0	0-2	0-2	—	-4	4	2
A. JohnsonG · #8	2	2	1-1	—	—	+1	1	0
Team		127	44-95	14-42	25-31		41	25

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

ORL wins series 2-0

Mar 6

DAL114@

ORL115

Apr 4

ORL138@

DAL127today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL-27073%

DAL+22031%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -6.5↗SpreadBet ORL -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowORL ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:18

ORL

D. Bane

Game leader · 33 min

27 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST

DAL

C. Flagg

Game leader · 34 min50-point game

51 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

How it ended

ORL beat DAL 138-127. D. Bane paced them with 27 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST. DAL outscored the other side 35-27 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

102 PTS · 28 REB · 23 AST

GS 84

Bench(7)

36 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST

GS 36

DALstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 25 REB · 14 AST

GS 71

Bench(7)

44 PTS · 16 REB · 11 AST

GS 29

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	38	33	40	27	138
DAL	31	27	34	35	127

Period scoring

ORL won 3 · DAL won 1

Tristan 7

Thompson 8

Jr. 13

Flagg 8

Suggs 10

Flagg 14

Bane 9

Flagg 24

ORL

DAL

Shooting comparison

ORL

DAL

56%

47-84

46%

44-95

54%

14-26

3PT

33%

14-42

81%

30-37

81%

25-31

Play-by-play · 522 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 138·DAL 127
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 138·DAL 127
Q4·4.2
shot clock turnover
ORL 138·DAL 127
Q4·28.2
AJ Johnson makes driving layup
ORL 138·DAL 127
Q4·29.5
AJ Johnson offensive rebound
ORL 138·DAL 125
Q4·33.0
John Poulakidas misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 138·DAL 125
Q4·41.7
Jett Howard makes 3-foot layup (Noah Penda assists)
·
ORL 138·DAL 125
Q4·49.3
Noah Penda defensive rebound
ORL 136·DAL 125
Q4·49.3
Ryan Nembhard misses running pullup jump shot
ORL 136·DAL 125
Q4·51.6
Tyler Smith defensive rebound
ORL 136·DAL 125
Q4·56.0
Wendell Carter Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper
·
ORL 136·DAL 125
Q4·1:10
Tyler Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 136·DAL 125
Q4·1:10
Mavericks offensive team rebound
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·1:10
Tyler Smith misses free throw 1 of 2
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·1:10
Noah Penda loose ball foul
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·1:10
Mavericks offensive team rebound
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·1:10
Ryan Nembhard misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·1:13
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·1:16
Jase Richardson misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·1:34
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·1:37
Tyler Smith misses 24-foot three point jumper
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·1:45
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·1:48
Wendell Carter Jr. misses 8-foot floating jump shot
·
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·2:04
Tyler Smith enters the game for Cooper Flagg
·
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·2:04
Ryan Nembhard personal take foul
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·2:05
Cooper Flagg makes free throw 1 of 1
ORL 136·DAL 124
Q4·2:05
Noah Penda enters the game for Jamal Cain
·
ORL 136·DAL 123
Q4·2:05
Jase Richardson enters the game for Tristan da Silva
·
ORL 136·DAL 123
Q4·2:05
Jett Howard enters the game for Paolo Banchero
·
ORL 136·DAL 123
Q4·2:05
Jevon Carter enters the game for Jalen Suggs
·
ORL 136·DAL 123

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

47-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-95

FG %

14-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-42

30-37

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-31

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

ORL -6.5·O/U 239.5·ORL -270/DAL +220

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Franz WagnerORL · F
DEFL4.398
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.796
Desmond BaneORL · G
DEFL2.686

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DAL vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Cooper FlaggDAL
23.6± 14.0high
Kyrie IrvingDAL
23.4± 13.6high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Daniel GaffordDAL
7.8± 3.6high
Moussa CisseDAL
7.8± 4.7high

Assists

Ryan NembhardDAL
6.2± 5.9high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Dereck Lively IIDAL
1.6± 1.3low
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

DAL

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.7%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.6%

114.2

PPG

114.9

114.1

26.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR