BOS
52-25
MIL
30-47
BOS · top performer
Jayson Tatum
F · #0
23
Pts
11
Reb
9
Ast
MIL · top performer
Taurean Prince
F · #12
18
Pts
0
Reb
2
Ast
NBA · Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 23 | 8-16 | 4-8 | 3-4 | +30 | 11 | 9 | |
| 27 | 13 | 5-6 | 3-4 | — | +25 | 6 | 2 | |
| 29 | 19 | 8-11 | — | 3-4 | +33 | 10 | 2 | |
| 31 | 17 | 6-11 | 5-9 | — | +34 | 3 | 5 | |
| 30 | 26 | 7-17 | 2-4 | 10-11 | +27 | 3 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| 6 | 6 | 3-3 | — | — | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 16 | 7-12 | 2-6 | — | +2 | 3 | 6 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | +2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 23 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | +4 | 2 | 3 | |
| 12 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-3 | — | +1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 133 | 50-89 | 17-37 | 16-19 | 48 | 33 | ||
| DNP: J. Tonje, A. Williams, M. Shulga | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 25 | 14 | 6-14 | 2-5 | — | -31 | 7 | 3 | |
| 33 | 14 | 5-11 | 4-9 | — | -19 | 10 | 1 | |
| 24 | 9 | 4-15 | 1-4 | — | -32 | 3 | 1 | |
| 19 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | -32 | 1 | 0 | |
| 31 | 15 | 5-9 | 5-9 | — | -23 | 1 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 25 | 18 | 7-8 | 4-5 | — | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 16 | 3 | — | — | 3-4 | +3 | 4 | 6 | |
| 15 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | — | -2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 33 | 11 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 5-5 | -19 | 1 | 2 | |
| 10 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-3 | — | -3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 101 | 35-83 | 21-47 | 10-13 | 30 | 24 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
56
FG %
42
33
Ast
24
Team stats
BOS
Away
Stat
MIL
Home
50-89
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-83
56
FG %
42
17-37
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
21-47
16-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-13
33
Assists
24
8
Turnovers
13
Season series
BOS wins series 3-1
BOS101@MIL116MIL79@BOS107BOS108@MIL81BOS133@MIL101todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
BOS -17.5
Between 10 and —
Total
217.5
Defensive · -8.5 vs avg
Moneyline
BOS-240096%MIL+12008%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 16 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
17.5
0.0 since open
Total
217.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
BOS beat MIL 133-101. J. Tatum led with 23 PTS, 11 REB, 9 AST. BOS outscored the other side 43-26 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIL vs BOS
Starters vs bench
production by unitBOSstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
98 PTS · 33 REB · 22 AST
GS 95
Bench(7)
35 PTS · 15 REB · 11 AST
GS 33
MILstarters 55% of ptsStarters(5)
56 PTS · 22 REB · 10 AST
GS 33
Bench(7)
45 PTS · 8 REB · 14 AST
GS 38
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 43 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 133 |
| MIL | 26 | 29 | 21 | 25 | 101 |
Period scoring
BOS won 4 · MIL won 0
Q1
Queta 13
Dieng 7
Q2
Pritchard 12
Kuzma 12
Q3
Brown 13
Prince 6
Q4
White 9
Green 6
Shooting comparison
56%
50-89
FG
42%
35-83
46%
17-37
3PT
45%
21-47
84%
16-19
FT
77%
10-13
Play-by-play · 415 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 133·MIL 101
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 133·MIL 101
- Q4·4.7
Celtics defensive team rebound
BOS 133·MIL 101
- Q4·5.0
Andre Jackson Jr. misses 6-foot two point shot
BOS 133·MIL 101
- Q4·25.9
shot clock turnover
BOS 133·MIL 101
- Q4·49.1
Thanasis Antetokounmpo bad pass turnover (Ron Harper Jr. steals)
· ·
BOS 133·MIL 101
- Q4·55.1
Baylor Scheierman bad pass turnover (Thanasis Antetokounmpo steals)
· ·
BOS 133·MIL 101
- Q4·1:10
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
BOS 133·MIL 101
- Q4·1:12
Alex Antetokounmpo misses 22-foot three point jumper
·
BOS 133·MIL 101
- Q4·1:25
Jordan Walsh makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Baylor Scheierman assists)
·
BOS 133·MIL 101
- Q4·1:45
Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
BOS 131·MIL 101
- Q4·1:49
Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses 24-foot three point jumper
·
BOS 131·MIL 101
- Q4·2:11
Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
·
BOS 131·MIL 101
- Q4·2:14
Ron Harper Jr. misses 12-foot two point shot
BOS 131·MIL 101
- Q4·2:25
Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
BOS 131·MIL 101
- Q4·2:28
Alex Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 2
·
BOS 131·MIL 101
- Q4·2:28
Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2
·
BOS 131·MIL 101
- Q4·2:28
Bucks Full timeout
BOS 131·MIL 100
- Q4·2:28
Charles Bassey shooting foul
BOS 131·MIL 100
- Q4·2:28
Alex Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
·
BOS 131·MIL 100
- Q4·2:29
Andre Jackson Jr. misses two point shot
BOS 131·MIL 100
- Q4·2:46
Charles Bassey makes alley oop layup (Baylor Scheierman assists)
·
BOS 131·MIL 100
- Q4·2:54
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
BOS 129·MIL 100
- Q4·2:58
Alex Antetokounmpo misses 28-foot running jump shot
·
BOS 129·MIL 100
- Q4·3:03
Pete Nance defensive rebound
BOS 129·MIL 100
- Q4·3:06
Jordan Walsh misses 25-foot three point jumper
BOS 129·MIL 100
- Q4·3:17
Andre Jackson Jr. makes 1-foot driving dunk
BOS 129·MIL 100
- Q4·3:18
Hugo Gonzalez bad pass turnover (Andre Jackson Jr. steals)
·
BOS 129·MIL 98
- Q4·3:33
Pete Nance makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)
·
BOS 129·MIL 98
- Q4·3:38
Pete Nance defensive rebound
BOS 129·MIL 95
Betting line
BOS -17.5·O/U 217.5·BOS -2400/MIL +1200
Recap · NBA
oston Celtics went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 133–101. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
BOS -17.5 cashed (won by 32). Total cleared the 217.5 OVER by 16.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort- Jayson TatumBOS · FTOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · CCONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · CTS%68.296
Myles TurnerMIL · CCONT8.195
Pete NanceMIL · FTS%63.990
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
140
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Jayson TatumBOS22.9± 3.5high
- Ryan RollinsMIL19.5± 7.1high
- Tyler HerroMIL19.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Jayson TatumBOS10.4± 3.8high
- Neemias QuetaBOS8.4± 3.6high
- Jericho SimsMIL7.5± 4.7high
Assists
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL6.9± 2.8high
- Jayson TatumBOS6.4± 2.6high
- Ryan RollinsMIL5.5± 1.9high
Blocks
- Derrick WhiteBOS1.1± 1.3high
- Neemias QuetaBOS1.0± 0.8high
- Mitchell RobinsonBOS0.7± 0.7high
Steals
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL2.1± 1.4high
- Paul GeorgeBOS1.5± 1.1high
- Ryan RollinsMIL1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
BOS
league avg
MIL
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶56.5%
46.5%
FG%
47.0
▶47.7%
114.2
PPG
114.9
110.6
24.6
Assists / G
25.0
▶25.8
11.5
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.5