TOR
43-34
MEM
25-52
Recap · NBA
oronto Raptors went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 128–96. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
TOR -14.5 cashed (won by 32). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 9.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
TOR · top performer
RJ Barrett
F · #9
25
Pts
3
Reb
4
Ast
MEM · top performer
GG Jackson
F · #45
30
Pts
5
Reb
1
Ast
NBA · Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 17 | 6-11 | 2-3 | 3-3 | +27 | 7 | 5 | |
| 29 | 25 | 9-17 | 4-6 | 3-4 | +26 | 3 | 4 | |
| 23 | 10 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +14 | 3 | 6 | |
| 23 | 8 | 4-6 | — | — | +14 | 7 | 4 | |
| 28 | 7 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 3-3 | +39 | 8 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 21 | 10 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 0 | 6 | 2 | |
| 6 | 4 | 1-1 | — | 2-4 | +1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 23 | 19 | 7-10 | — | 5-8 | +22 | 4 | 1 | |
| 6 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | -7 | 3 | 0 | |
| 23 | 11 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 6-7 | +20 | 1 | 6 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 7 | 7 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | +2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Team | 128 | 44-84 | 9-24 | 31-41 | 51 | 31 | ||
| DNP: G. Temple | ||||||||
DNP: G. Temple
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 9 | 4-10 | 1-5 | — | -7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 27 | 15 | 5-11 | 2-7 | 3-4 | -24 | 2 | 1 | |
| 30 | 30 | 10-16 | 3-6 | 7-9 | -8 | 5 | 1 | |
| 27 | 14 | 5-11 | 2-8 | 2-3 | -27 | 6 | 4 | |
| 25 | 4 | 2-7 | — | — | -30 | 4 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 22 | 8 | 3-10 | 1-7 | 1-2 | -7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 28 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-3 | — | -14 | 7 | 0 | |
| 20 | 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 14 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-6 | -13 | 1 | 1 | |
| 20 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | — | -24 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 96 | 34-85 | 11-42 | 17-26 | 38 | 14 | ||
| DNP: C. Spencer, W. Clayton Jr. | ||||||||
DNP: C. Spencer, W. Clayton Jr.
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
52
FG %
40
31
Ast
14
Season series
TOR wins series 2-0
MEM104@TOR117TOR128@MEM96todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TOR -14.5
Between 10 and —
Total
233.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
TOR-110092%MEM+70013%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
14.5
0.0 since open
Total
233.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:30
TORR. Barrett
FGame leader · 29 min
25 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
MEMG. Jackson
FGame leader · 30 min30-point game
30 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
TOR beat MEM 128-96. R. Barrett paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. TOR outscored the other side 33-20 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MEM vs TOR
Starters vs bench
production by unitTORstarters 52% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 28 REB · 20 AST
GS 63
Bench(9)
61 PTS · 23 REB · 11 AST
GS 56
MEMstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 20 REB · 8 AST
GS 42
Bench(5)
24 PTS · 18 REB · 6 AST
GS 7
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactRJ Barrett · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 26 | 33 | 37 | 32 | 128 |
| MEM | 21 | 20 | 31 | 24 | 96 |
Period scoring
TOR won 4 · MEM won 0
Q1
Barnes 8
Jackson 6
Q2
Barrett 12
Jackson 6
Q3
Ingram 7
Jackson 11
Q4
Dick 7
Okani 15
Shooting comparison
52%
44-84
FG
40%
34-85
38%
9-24
3PT
26%
11-42
76%
31-41
FT
65%
17-26
Play-by-play · 522 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 128·MEM 96
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 128·MEM 96
- Q4·8.3
shot clock turnover
TOR 128·MEM 96
- Q4·32.3
Adama Bal traveling turnover
TOR 128·MEM 96
- Q4·40.6
Gradey Dick makes two point shot
TOR 128·MEM 96
- Q4·40.6
Gradey Dick offensive rebound
TOR 126·MEM 96
- Q4·43.6
Alijah Martin misses 26-foot three point jumper
TOR 126·MEM 96
- Q4·56.7
Rayan Rupert makes two point shot
TOR 126·MEM 96
- Q4·1:00
Rayan Rupert defensive rebound
TOR 126·MEM 94
- Q4·1:02
Gradey Dick misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 126·MEM 94
- Q4·1:02
Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 126·MEM 94
- Q4·1:02
Adama Bal shooting foul
TOR 125·MEM 94
- Q4·1:03
Jamison Battle defensive rebound
TOR 125·MEM 94
- Q4·1:06
Rayan Rupert misses driving floating jump shot
TOR 125·MEM 94
- Q4·1:14
Gradey Dick makes two point shot (Jonathan Mogbo assists)
·
TOR 125·MEM 94
- Q4·1:17
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
TOR 123·MEM 94
- Q4·1:19
Rayan Rupert misses two point shot
TOR 123·MEM 94
- Q4·1:38
Toby Okani defensive rebound
TOR 123·MEM 94
- Q4·1:42
Gradey Dick misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 123·MEM 94
- Q4·1:55
Dariq Whitehead makes driving dunk (Adama Bal assists)
·
TOR 123·MEM 94
- Q4·2:02
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes tip in dunk
·
TOR 123·MEM 92
- Q4·2:02
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
·
TOR 121·MEM 92
- Q4·2:07
Gradey Dick misses two point shot
TOR 121·MEM 92
- Q4·2:26
Gradey Dick defensive rebound
TOR 121·MEM 92
- Q4·2:29
Jonathan Mogbo blocks Rayan Rupert 's 7-foot two point shot
·
TOR 121·MEM 92
- Q4·2:41
Jamison Battle makes driving layup (Alijah Martin assists)
·
TOR 121·MEM 92
- Q4·2:53
Lucas Williamson makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 119·MEM 92
- Q4·2:53
Lucas Williamson makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 119·MEM 91
- Q4·2:53
Gradey Dick shooting foul
TOR 119·MEM 90
- Q4·2:59
Jonathan Mogbo out of bounds lost ball turnover
·
TOR 119·MEM 90
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
MEM
Home
44-84
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-85
52
FG %
40
9-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-42
31-41
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-26
31
Assists
14
14
Turnovers
20
Betting line
TOR -14.5·O/U 233.5·TOR -1100/MEM +700
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Jakob PoeltlTOR · CTS%69.899
Scottie BarnesTOR · FDRIVES16.798- RJ BarrettTOR · FDRIVES16.497
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR · GDEFL3.494
Brandon IngramTOR · FUSG%26.890
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MEM vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- RJ BarrettTOR21.8± 4.6high
- Scottie BarnesTOR20.0± 6.0high
- Ja MorantMEM19.6± 8.8high
Rebounds
- Zach EdeyMEM11.3± 7.8low
- Santi AldamaMEM6.7± 2.1high
- Scottie BarnesTOR6.7± 3.3high
Assists
- Ja MorantMEM8.1± 3.9high
- Scottie BarnesTOR7.1± 3.8high
- Cam SpencerMEM5.8± 2.9high
Blocks
- Zach EdeyMEM1.9± 2.3low
- Scottie BarnesTOR1.5± 1.4high
- Collin Murray-BoylesTOR1.0± 1.0high
Steals
- Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM1.9± 2.1low
- Chucky HepburnTOR1.9± 2.1low
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR1.6± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
TOR
league avg
MEM
54.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.3%
48.1%
FG%
47.0
45.6%
114.3
PPG
114.9
114.7
29.2
Assists / G
25.0
27.8
13.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.6