NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SAC

25-53

113117

SAC

21-57

NBAFri, Apr 3FinalSeriesNO wins series 2-1VegasNO -6.5

Recap · NBA

acramento Kings held off New Orleans Pelicans, 117–113. Decided by 4.

SAC +6.5 cashed (NO lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 232.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NO · top performer

Jeremiah Fears

G · #0

23.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Maxime Raynaud

C · #42

26.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	13	3	1-3	1-2	—	0	1	1
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	29	13	5-11	—	3-4	-4	6	3
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	32	13	5-9	1-5	2-2	-3	4	4
Y. MissiC · #21	20	6	2-5	—	2-3	+3	7	2
S. BeyG · #41	29	20	7-15	1-6	5-5	-7	1	3
Bench
D. QueenC · #22	28	8	3-10	0-2	2-2	-7	6	2
M. PeavyG · #14	32	8	2-5	2-3	2-2	+5	3	3
J. HawkinsG · #24	21	14	5-7	4-5	—	-3	0	0
J. FearsG · #0	37	28	10-19	5-11	3-3	-4	8	6
Team		113	40-84	14-34	19-21		36	24
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Oduro, H. Dickinson, J. Poole, T. Alexander

DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Oduro, H. Dickinson, J. Poole, T. Alexander

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	25	12	6-10	0-2	0-1	+7	7	2
M. RaynaudC · #42	29	28	11-14	0-1	6-7	+1	9	4
D. DeRozanG · #10	23	14	7-11	—	—	+1	2	5
D. CarterG · #22	32	9	3-10	2-6	1-3	+5	6	3
N. CliffordG · #5	39	23	9-16	4-6	1-2	+7	5	6
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	18	3	1-6	1-5	—	-1	3	2
D. CardwellC · #32	24	6	3-3	—	—	+4	8	1
D. PlowdenG · #29	31	17	5-12	2-8	5-5	+1	3	1
K. HayesG · #3	20	5	1-8	1-5	2-2	-5	3	5
Team		117	46-90	10-33	15-20		46	29
DNP: D. Eubanks, D. Hunter, K. Murray

DNP: D. Eubanks, D. Hunter, K. Murray

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

NO wins series 2-1

Feb 10

SAC94@

NO120

Mar 6

NO133@

SAC123

Apr 4

NO113@

SAC117today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO-24571%

SAC+20033%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -6.5↗SpreadBet NO -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNO ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 49pp · 4th Quarter · 1:52

J. Fears

Game leader · 37 min

28 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST

SAC

M. Raynaud

Game leader · 29 min

28 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

How it ended

SAC beat NO 117-113. M. Raynaud paced them with 28 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. SAC outscored the other side 32-21 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 49% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 19 REB · 13 AST

GS 41

Bench(4)

58 PTS · 17 REB · 11 AST

GS 53

SACstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST

GS 74

Bench(4)

31 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC4th Quarter · 1:00 · 111-112

+15pp→ 62% WP

Derik Queen · offensive charge

SAC4th Quarter · 44.2 · 111-114

+28pp→ 75% WP

Maxime Raynaud · makes driving layup (Devin Carter assists)

NO4th Quarter · 1:52 · 111-112

+49pp→ 49% WP

Nique Clifford · bad pass turnover (Derik Queen steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	30	36	26	21	113
SAC	21	34	30	32	117

Period scoring

NO won 2 · SAC won 2

Fears 8

Raynaud 8

Fears 10

Raynaud 9

Bey 8

Clifford 9

Fears 8

Raynaud 9

SAC

Shooting comparison

SAC

48%

40-84

51%

46-90

41%

14-34

3PT

30%

10-33

90%

19-21

75%

15-20

Play-by-play · 458 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 113·SAC 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 113·SAC 117
Q4·0.1
Pelicans offensive team rebound
NO 113·SAC 117
Q4·0.2
Saddiq Bey misses heave jump shot
NO 113·SAC 117
+2pp
Q4·2.2
Devin Carter makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 113·SAC 117
Q4·2.2
Kings offensive team rebound
NO 113·SAC 116
−0.7pp
Q4·2.2
Devin Carter misses free throw 1 of 2
NO 113·SAC 116
−0.5pp
Q4·2.2
Jeremiah Fears personal take foul
NO 113·SAC 116
+2pp
Q4·2.9
Kings Full timeout
NO 113·SAC 116
Q4·2.9
Doug McDermott enters the game for Dylan Cardwell
·
NO 113·SAC 116
Q4·2.9
Nique Clifford defensive rebound
NO 113·SAC 116
+0.6pp
Q4·2.9
Dylan Cardwell blocks Jeremiah Fears 's 2-foot running dunk
·
NO 113·SAC 116
−0.6pp
Q4·2.9
Kings Full timeout
NO 113·SAC 116
Q4·2.9
(00:02.9) [Kings] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Kings] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
NO 113·SAC 116
+9pp
Q4·2.9
Kings Full timeout
NO 113·SAC 116
+0.7pp
Q4·8.4
Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
NO 113·SAC 116
+2pp
Q4·9.7
Nique Clifford misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 113·SAC 116
−10pp
Q4·9.7
Nique Clifford makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 113·SAC 116
+1pp
Q4·9.7
Saddiq Bey personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NO 113·SAC 115
+10pp
Q4·9.7
Nique Clifford defensive rebound
NO 113·SAC 115
+4pp
Q4·10.7
Dylan Cardwell blocks Zion Williamson 's 6-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
NO 113·SAC 115
+9pp
Q4·16.8
Pelicans Full timeout
NO 113·SAC 115
Q4·16.8
Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 113·SAC 115
−5pp
Q4·16.8
Kings offensive team rebound
NO 113·SAC 114
−5pp
Q4·16.8
Maxime Raynaud misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 113·SAC 114
−6pp
Q4·16.8
Derik Queen personal take foul
NO 113·SAC 114
Q4·18.3
Derik Queen personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NO 113·SAC 114
+15pp
Q4·24.6
Saddiq Bey makes 3-foot two point shot
NO 113·SAC 114
−5pp
Q4·37.0
Pelicans offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NO 111·SAC 114
−8pp
Q4·37.0
Devin Carter blocks Jeremiah Fears 's 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
NO 111·SAC 114
+9pp

Team stats

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

40-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

46-90

FG %

14-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-33

19-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-20

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

NO -6.5·O/U 232.5·NO -245/SAC +200

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high
Saddiq BeyNO
19.2± 4.8high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

Russell WestbrookSAC
7.5± 2.7high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

SAC

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.5%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

115.5

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.5

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR