NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21CHA

IND

18-59

108129

CHA

42-36

NBAFri, Apr 3FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasCHA -15.5

IND · top performer

Pascal Siakam

F · #43

21.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Brandon Miller

F · #24

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ CHA

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	34	30	13-24	2-4	2-3	-11	7	2
J. HuffC · #32	24	12	5-18	2-10	—	-7	6	4
K. BrownG · #24	28	12	5-10	1-2	1-2	-16	9	4
B. SheppardG · #26	25	7	2-7	1-3	2-2	-10	3	2
Q. JacksonG · #29	25	16	6-8	2-3	2-3	-12	3	5
Bench
O. ToppinF · #1	20	11	4-9	3-6	—	-5	4	1
M. PotterC · #11	13	4	2-5	0-2	—	-18	2	0
E. ThompsonG · #55	30	3	1-2	1-2	—	-11	3	0
K. JonesG · #7	23	7	3-5	1-2	—	-9	6	10
T. PeterG · #4	18	6	2-5	2-2	—	-6	2	1
Team		108	43-93	15-36	7-10		45	29
DNP: A. Nesmith

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	26	19	7-16	3-5	2-2	+4	6	1
B. MillerF · #24	30	22	9-17	4-8	—	+10	6	3
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	25	7	3-7	—	1-1	-1	8	2
L. BallG · #1	30	18	6-15	5-12	1-2	+17	6	9
K. KnueppelG · #7	30	20	7-12	3-7	3-3	+20	4	4
Bench
X. TillmanF · #26	17	2	1-2	—	—	+22	3	2
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	18	7	2-4	2-3	1-2	-7	3	1
C. WhiteG · #3	14	11	3-7	1-2	4-4	+5	3	4
J. GreenG · #10	24	6	2-5	2-4	—	+8	2	2
T. MannG · #23	4	4	2-2	—	—	+1	1	0
S. JamesG · #4	23	13	4-9	4-8	1-1	+26	6	3
Team		129	46-96	24-49	13-15		48	31
DNP: G. Williams

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

43-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

46-96

FG %

15-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

24-49

7-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 20

CHA118@

IND127

Jan 9

IND114@

CHA112

Feb 27

CHA133@

IND109

Apr 3

IND108@

CHA129today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+90010%

CHA-160094%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -15.5↗SpreadBet CHA -15.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat IND 129-108. B. Miller led with 22 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST. CHA outscored the other side 38-24 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 28 REB · 17 AST

GS 61

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 17 REB · 12 AST

GS 24

CHAstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 30 REB · 19 AST

GS 74

Bench(6)

43 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST

GS 43

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	24	26	32	26	108
CHA	38	31	31	29	129

Period scoring

IND won 1 · CHA won 3

Siakam 5

James 10

Huff 7

Siakam 12

Huff 5

Bridges 14

Siakam 14

Bridges 10

IND

CHA

Shooting comparison

IND

CHA

46%

43-93

48%

46-96

42%

15-36

3PT

49%

24-49

70%

7-10

87%

13-15

Play-by-play · 468 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 108·CHA 129
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 108·CHA 129
Q4·5.2
shot clock turnover
IND 108·CHA 129
Q4·27.1
Tre Mann defensive rebound
IND 108·CHA 129
Q4·29.1
Micah Potter misses layup
IND 108·CHA 129
Q4·40.2
Tre Mann makes driving layup (Josh Green assists)
·
IND 108·CHA 129
Q4·1:00
Sion James defensive rebound
IND 108·CHA 127
Q4·1:02
Taelon Peter misses dunk
IND 108·CHA 127
Q4·1:07
Kobe Brown defensive rebound
IND 108·CHA 127
Q4·1:10
Pat Connaughton misses 23-foot three point jumper
IND 108·CHA 127
Q4·1:30
Quenton Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 108·CHA 127
Q4·1:30
Quenton Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 107·CHA 127
Q4·1:30
Xavier Tillman shooting foul
IND 106·CHA 127
Q4·1:50
Tre Mann makes 17-foot step back jumpshot (Xavier Tillman assists)
·
IND 106·CHA 127
Q4·2:06
Sion James defensive rebound
IND 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:11
Xavier Tillman blocks Kobe Brown 's 8-foot two point shot
·
IND 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:23
Quenton Jackson defensive rebound
IND 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:25
Sion James misses 9-foot fade away jump shot
IND 106·CHA 125
Q4·2:55
Taelon Peter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Quenton Jackson assists)
·
IND 106·CHA 125
Q4·3:13
Xavier Tillman makes 2-foot two point shot (Sion James assists)
·
IND 103·CHA 125
Q4·3:31
Xavier Tillman enters the game for Kon Knueppel
·
IND 103·CHA 123
Q4·3:31
Tre Mann enters the game for Miles Bridges
·
IND 103·CHA 123
Q4·3:31
Hornets Full timeout
IND 103·CHA 123
Q4·3:31
Quenton Jackson makes layup (Kobe Brown assists)
·
IND 103·CHA 123
Q4·3:33
Quenton Jackson defensive rebound
IND 101·CHA 123
Q4·3:37
Josh Green misses 23-foot running jump shot
IND 101·CHA 123
Q4·3:40
Miles Bridges defensive rebound
IND 101·CHA 123
Q4·3:42
Quenton Jackson misses driving dunk
IND 101·CHA 123
Q4·3:48
Micah Potter enters the game for Pascal Siakam
·
IND 101·CHA 123
Q4·3:48
Kobe Brown enters the game for Obi Toppin
·
IND 101·CHA 123

Betting line

CHA -15.5·O/U 234.5·IND +900/CHA -1600

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off Indiana Pacers, 129–108. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA -15.5 cashed (won by 21). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
LaMelo BallCHA · G
USG%31.397
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996
Pascal SiakamIND · F
USG%30.096

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHA vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 165 high confidence

Points

Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
LaMelo BallCHA
22.2± 8.0high
Brandon MillerCHA
18.8± 5.5high

Rebounds

Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Moussa DiabateCHA
8.8± 2.9high
Micah PotterIND
6.1± 4.5high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
LaMelo BallCHA
7.3± 2.5high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Ryan KalkbrennerCHA
1.3± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium
Pascal SiakamIND
1.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

CHA

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

115.8

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.2

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR