MIN
46-31
PHI
43-34
Recap · NBA
hiladelphia 76ers held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 115–103.
PHI -3.5 cashed (won by 12). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 15.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Bones Hyland
G · #8
21
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
PHI · top performer
Tyrese Maxey
G · #0
21
Pts
6
Reb
8
Ast
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves at Philadelphia 76ers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 37 | 21 | 9-15 | 1-2 | 2-6 | -12 | 7 | 3 | |
| 29 | 5 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 1-1 | -1 | 16 | 1 | |
| 29 | 11 | 3-11 | 3-9 | 2-3 | -18 | 0 | 1 | |
| 36 | 19 | 6-16 | 4-6 | 3-3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | |
| 26 | 8 | 3-15 | 0-7 | 2-3 | -14 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| 29 | 12 | 5-14 | 1-6 | 1-1 | -8 | 7 | 1 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | -5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 30 | 21 | 7-14 | 5-9 | 2-3 | -2 | 5 | 3 | |
| Team | 103 | 38-101 | 14-43 | 13-20 | 43 | 21 | ||
| DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, M. Conley, J. Clark | ||||||||
DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, M. Conley, J. Clark
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 38 | 23 | 6-15 | 3-7 | 8-10 | 0 | 6 | 6 | |
| 26 | 7 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | +9 | 10 | 1 | |
| 34 | 19 | 6-17 | 1-6 | 6-7 | +15 | 13 | 7 | |
| 35 | 21 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 6-6 | +14 | 6 | 8 | |
| 37 | 8 | 4-9 | 0-2 | — | +1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 9 | 4 | 1-1 | — | 2-2 | +11 | 6 | 0 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 30 | 21 | 8-12 | 4-6 | 1-1 | +6 | 5 | 1 | |
| 25 | 10 | 5-8 | 0-1 | — | +9 | 4 | 1 | |
| Team | 115 | 41-82 | 9-26 | 24-28 | 53 | 27 | ||
| DNP: T. Watford, M. Beauchamp, J. Walker, J. Edwards, C. Payne, K. Lowry | ||||||||
DNP: T. Watford, M. Beauchamp, J. Walker, J. Edwards, C. Payne, K. Lowry
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
50
21
Ast
27
Season series
PHI wins series 2-0
PHI135@MIN108MIN103@PHI115todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PHI -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
233.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+14241%PHI-17063%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
233.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 13.2
MINB. Hyland
GGame leader · 30 min
21 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
PHIT. Maxey
GGame leader · 35 min
21 PTS · 6 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
PHI beat MIN 115-103. T. Maxey led with 21 PTS, 6 REB, 8 AST. PHI outscored the other side 42-24 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHI vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 30 REB · 11 AST
GS 39
Bench(4)
39 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST
GS 29
PHIstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 37 REB · 25 AST
GS 71
Bench(4)
37 PTS · 16 REB · 2 AST
GS 33
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPaul George · technical foul
Joel Embiid · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)
Kelly Oubre Jr. · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 30 | 24 | 32 | 103 |
| PHI | 19 | 22 | 42 | 32 | 115 |
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · PHI won 2
Q1
Edwards 5
George 6
Q2
Hyland 14
George 9
Q3
Randle 8
Maxey 26
Q4
Dosunmu 11
Jr. 16
Shooting comparison
38%
38-101
FG
50%
41-82
33%
14-43
3PT
35%
9-26
65%
13-20
FT
86%
24-28
Play-by-play · 485 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 103·PHI 115
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 103·PHI 115
- Q4·17.6
shot clock turnover
MIN 103·PHI 115
- Q4·39.8
Kelly Oubre Jr. defensive rebound
MIN 103·PHI 115
- Q4·41.9
Bones Hyland misses two point shot
MIN 103·PHI 115
- Q4·54.8
Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)
·
MIN 103·PHI 115
- Q4·1:01
Ayo Dosunmu lost ball turnover (Paul George steals)
·
MIN 103·PHI 112
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:08
Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)
·
MIN 103·PHI 112
+4pp
- Q4·1:27
Julius Randle makes running layup (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)
·
MIN 103·PHI 109
−2pp
- Q4·1:31
Tyrese Maxey bad pass turnover (Bones Hyland steals)
·
MIN 101·PHI 109
−1pp
- Q4·1:47
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 101·PHI 109
+1pp
- Q4·1:47
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 100·PHI 109
- Q4·1:47
Paul George personal foul
MIN 99·PHI 109
−2pp
- Q4·1:56
Kelly Oubre Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1
MIN 99·PHI 109
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:56
Julius Randle shooting foul
MIN 99·PHI 108
+2pp
- Q4·1:56
Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot
MIN 99·PHI 108
+2pp
- Q4·2:17
Ayo Dosunmu makes two point shot
MIN 99·PHI 106
−1pp
- Q4·2:29
VJ Edgecombe makes two point shot
MIN 97·PHI 106
+3pp
- Q4·2:55
Julius Randle makes 1-foot running dunk
MIN 97·PHI 104
−2pp
- Q4·2:57
Paul George bad pass turnover (Julius Randle steals)
·
MIN 95·PHI 104
−1pp
- Q4·3:07
Bones Hyland makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 95·PHI 104
- Q4·3:07
Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 94·PHI 104
- Q4·3:07
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 94·PHI 104
+1pp
- Q4·3:07
Bones Hyland misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 94·PHI 104
+2pp
- Q4·3:07
VJ Edgecombe personal foul
MIN 94·PHI 104
−3pp
- Q4·3:17
Julius Randle defensive rebound
MIN 94·PHI 104
- Q4·3:19
Joel Embiid misses 11-foot fade away jump shot
MIN 94·PHI 104
−0.7pp
- Q4·3:36
Rudy Gobert makes tip in dunk
MIN 94·PHI 104
−0.8pp
- Q4·3:36
Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
MIN 92·PHI 104
- Q4·3:39
Ayo Dosunmu misses two point shot
MIN 92·PHI 104
+0.6pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
PHI
Home
38-101
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-82
38
FG %
50
14-43
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-26
13-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
24-28
21
Assists
27
12
Turnovers
15
Betting line
PHI -3.5·O/U 233.5·MIN +142/PHI -170
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Joel EmbiidPHI · CUSG%34.399+- Tyrese MaxeyPHI · GTOUCHES94.599
Anthony EdwardsMIN · GUSG%31.397
Paul GeorgePHI · FDEFL3.595
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Joel EmbiidPHI25.3± 7.2high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI25.0± 6.5high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Joel EmbiidPHI8.0± 3.5high
- Julius RandleMIN7.2± 2.1high
Assists
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI5.9± 1.9high
- Joel EmbiidPHI4.6± 2.6high
- Ayo DosunmuMIN3.9± 3.1high
Blocks
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Joel EmbiidPHI1.3± 1.4high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
Steals
- Paul GeorgePHI1.5± 1.1high
- Donte DiVincenzoMIN1.2± 1.3high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI1.2± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIN
league avg
PHI
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.9%
47.6%
FG%
47.0
46.0%
116.8
PPG
114.9
114.3
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
24.1
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶12.8