UTAH
21-57
HOU
48-29
Recap · NBA
ouston Rockets held off Utah Jazz, 140–106. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
HOU -18.5 cashed (won by 34). Total cleared the 231.5 OVER by 14.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
UTAH · top performer
Cody Williams
F · #5
27
Pts
11
Reb
4
Ast
HOU · top performer
Kevin Durant
F · #7
25
Pts
5
Reb
6
Ast
NBA · Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 17 | 8-16 | 0-4 | 1-1 | -22 | 7 | 2 | |
| 38 | 27 | 10-16 | 0-2 | 7-10 | -29 | 11 | 4 | |
| 33 | 20 | 7-16 | 2-6 | 4-5 | -22 | 3 | 5 | |
| 30 | 3 | 1-7 | 1-4 | — | -24 | 5 | 3 | |
| 33 | 22 | 9-17 | 2-8 | 2-3 | -17 | 6 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 21 | 15 | 7-11 | — | 1-3 | -15 | 10 | 1 | |
| 25 | 2 | 1-9 | 0-1 | — | -20 | 1 | 4 | |
| 29 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | — | -21 | 2 | 2 | |
| Team | 106 | 43-96 | 5-27 | 15-22 | 45 | 22 | ||
| DNP: K. Love, S. Mykhailiuk, E. Harkless, I. Collier | ||||||||
DNP: K. Love, S. Mykhailiuk, E. Harkless, I. Collier
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 25 | 8-12 | 2-4 | 7-8 | +24 | 5 | 6 | |
| 24 | 18 | 6-16 | 4-8 | 2-2 | +12 | 5 | 0 | |
| 28 | 19 | 8-12 | 0-2 | 3-6 | +16 | 4 | 5 | |
| 32 | 21 | 7-11 | — | 7-9 | +14 | 8 | 4 | |
| 29 | 12 | 4-10 | 4-8 | — | +26 | 2 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 7 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | — | +3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 9 | 7 | 3-4 | 1-2 | — | +9 | 2 | 1 | |
| 12 | 7 | 3-5 | — | 1-1 | +5 | 6 | 2 | |
| 22 | 16 | 7-10 | 2-3 | — | +17 | 7 | 0 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | +15 | 4 | 1 | |
| 18 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-4 | — | +8 | 2 | 3 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +20 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 5 | 1-1 | — | 3-4 | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 140 | 51-92 | 15-32 | 23-30 | 46 | 30 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
55
22
Ast
30
Season series
HOU wins series 3-1
HOU129@UTAH101HOU125@UTAH133UTAH105@HOU125UTAH106@HOU140todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
HOU -18.5
Between 10 and —
Total
231.5
Standard · +5.5 vs avg
Moneyline
UTAH+11008%HOU-210095%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
18.5
0.0 since open
Total
231.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:36
UTAHC. Williams
FGame leader · 38 minDouble-double
27 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST
HOUK. Durant
FGame leader · 30 min
25 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
HOU beat UTAH 140-106. K. Durant paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. HOU outscored the other side 34-22 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
HOU vs UTAH
Starters vs bench
production by unitUTAHstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
89 PTS · 32 REB · 15 AST
GS 64
Bench(3)
17 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST
GS 14
HOUstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
95 PTS · 24 REB · 22 AST
GS 81
Bench(8)
45 PTS · 22 REB · 8 AST
GS 45
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 22 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 106 |
| HOU | 34 | 35 | 38 | 33 | 140 |
Period scoring
UTAH won 0 · HOU won 4
Q1
Williams 6
Durant 9
Q2
Filipowski 8
Durant 26
Q3
Sensabaugh 9
Sheppard 37
Q4
Bailey 13
Tate 7
Shooting comparison
45%
43-96
FG
55%
51-92
19%
5-27
3PT
47%
15-32
68%
15-22
FT
77%
23-30
Play-by-play · 482 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 106·HOU 140
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 106·HOU 140
- Q4·1.5
shot clock turnover
UTAH 106·HOU 140
- Q4·23.3
Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound
UTAH 106·HOU 140
- Q4·25.9
Cody Williams misses free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 106·HOU 140
- Q4·25.9
Cody Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 106·HOU 140
- Q4·25.9
Jeff Green shooting foul
UTAH 105·HOU 140
- Q4·34.0
Cody Williams defensive rebound
UTAH 105·HOU 140
- Q4·35.1
Jeff Green misses 23-foot three point jumper
UTAH 105·HOU 140
- Q4·58.5
Ace Bailey makes 15-foot two point shot
UTAH 105·HOU 140
- Q4·1:05
JD Davison makes 2-foot two point shot (Aaron Holiday assists)
·
UTAH 103·HOU 140
- Q4·1:26
Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound
UTAH 103·HOU 138
- Q4·1:27
Cody Williams misses 23-foot three point jumper
UTAH 103·HOU 138
- Q4·1:35
Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)
·
UTAH 103·HOU 138
- Q4·1:47
Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound
UTAH 103·HOU 135
- Q4·1:47
Oscar Tshiebwe misses free throw 1 of 1
UTAH 103·HOU 135
- Q4·1:47
Jeff Green shooting foul
UTAH 103·HOU 135
- Q4·1:47
Oscar Tshiebwe makes two point shot
UTAH 103·HOU 135
- Q4·1:47
Oscar Tshiebwe offensive rebound
UTAH 101·HOU 135
- Q4·1:47
Cody Williams misses driving layup
UTAH 101·HOU 135
- Q4·1:59
Dorian Finney-Smith makes tip shot
UTAH 101·HOU 135
- Q4·1:59
Dorian Finney-Smith offensive rebound
UTAH 101·HOU 133
- Q4·2:00
Jae'Sean Tate misses driving layup
UTAH 101·HOU 133
- Q4·2:19
Ace Bailey makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 101·HOU 133
- Q4·2:19
Jazz offensive team rebound
UTAH 100·HOU 133
- Q4·2:19
Ace Bailey misses free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 100·HOU 133
- Q4·2:19
JD Davison loose ball foul
UTAH 100·HOU 133
- Q4·2:19
Jazz defensive team rebound
UTAH 100·HOU 133
- Q4·2:20
Jeff Green misses 17-foot two point shot
UTAH 100·HOU 133
- Q4·2:35
Cody Williams offensive foul turnover
UTAH 100·HOU 133
Team stats
UTAH
Away
Stat
HOU
Home
43-96
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
51-92
45
FG %
55
5-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-32
15-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-30
22
Assists
30
13
Turnovers
10
Betting line
HOU -18.5·O/U 231.5·UTAH +1100/HOU -2100
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Reed SheppardHOU · GDEFL599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · GTOUCHES86.297
Alperen SengunHOU · CCONT8.295- Kevin DurantHOU · FTS%64.190
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU · FDEFL2.583
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · UTAH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs UTAH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Kevin DurantHOU25.3± 4.5high
- Lauri MarkkanenUTAH24.2± 5.0high
- Keyonte GeorgeUTAH21.4± 8.8high
Rebounds
- Jusuf NurkicUTAH11.4± 4.1high
- Walker KesslerUTAH10.7± 2.2low
- Alperen SengunHOU9.4± 3.5high
Assists
- Isaiah CollierUTAH6.6± 2.5high
- Kennedy ChandlerUTAH6.5± 2.2medium
- Kevin DurantHOU5.8± 2.2high
Blocks
- Walker KesslerUTAH1.8± 2.5low
- Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH1.3± 1.3high
- Alperen SengunHOU1.1± 0.7high
Steals
- Bez MbengUTAH2.5± 1.7medium
- Amen ThompsonHOU1.9± 1.3high
- John KoncharUTAH1.9± 1.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
UTAH
league avg
HOU
53.6%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.7%
46.7%
FG%
47.0
▶47.4%
117.6
PPG
114.9
114.1
29.6
Assists / G
25.0
25.1
15.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶14.3