MIN
46-29
DAL
24-51
Recap · NBA
innesota Timberwolves went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 124–94. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
MIN -8.5 cashed (won by 30). Total stayed UNDER 236.5 by 18.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Ayo Dosunmu
G · #13
18
Pts
15
Reb
12
Ast
DAL · top performer
Daniel Gafford
F · #21
21
Pts
8
Reb
2
Ast
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 24 | 9-14 | 3-4 | 3-7 | +26 | 3 | 4 | |
| 28 | 14 | 6-8 | — | 2-2 | +27 | 10 | 1 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | -4 | 0 | 2 | |
| 30 | 15 | 5-11 | 5-9 | — | +30 | 3 | 2 | |
| 33 | 18 | 8-13 | 1-2 | 1-1 | +30 | 15 | 12 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | +4 | 3 | 4 | |
| 5 | 6 | 3-3 | — | — | -2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 25 | 12 | 5-14 | 2-6 | — | +2 | 5 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | +1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 5 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 23 | 12 | 5-10 | 1-5 | 1-1 | +9 | 4 | 3 | |
| 23 | 17 | 7-13 | 2-3 | 1-1 | +29 | 2 | 4 | |
| Team | 124 | 51-96 | 14-31 | 8-12 | 51 | 33 | ||
| DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips | ||||||||
DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 23 | 9 | 4-10 | 1-1 | — | -24 | 6 | 1 | |
| 24 | 21 | 9-11 | — | 3-8 | -23 | 8 | 2 | |
| 31 | 12 | 5-19 | 0-3 | 2-4 | -35 | 4 | 1 | |
| 28 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-2 | — | -29 | 4 | 0 | |
| 20 | 8 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 1-2 | -9 | 3 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 24 | 9 | — | — | 9-10 | -7 | 8 | 2 | |
| 18 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-3 | — | +2 | 8 | 0 | |
| 22 | 5 | 1-8 | 1-6 | 2-2 | -9 | 2 | 2 | |
| 28 | 15 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 6-6 | -21 | 6 | 7 | |
| 18 | 8 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 2-2 | +3 | 3 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | +2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 94 | 31-89 | 7-29 | 25-34 | 53 | 21 | ||
| DNP: M. Bagley III | ||||||||
DNP: M. Bagley III
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
53
FG %
35
33
Ast
21
Season series
MIN wins series 4-0
DAL96@MIN120MIN118@DAL105DAL111@MIN122MIN124@DAL94todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
236.5
High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN-35578%DAL+28026%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
236.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 11:35
MINA. Dosunmu
GGame leader · 33 minTriple-double
18 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST
DALD. Gafford
FGame leader · 24 min
21 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
MIN beat DAL 124-94. A. Dosunmu stuffed the line with 18 PTS, 15 REB, and 12 AST. MIN outscored the other side 38-25 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 31 REB · 21 AST
GS 69
Bench(7)
53 PTS · 20 REB · 12 AST
GS 39
DALstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 25 REB · 9 AST
GS 28
Bench(6)
41 PTS · 28 REB · 12 AST
GS 36
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 35 | 21 | 38 | 30 | 124 |
| DAL | 23 | 23 | 25 | 23 | 94 |
Period scoring
MIN won 3 · DAL won 1
Q1
Dosunmu 8
Williams 9
Q2
Randle 7
Christie 11
Q3
DiVincenzo 11
Gafford 11
Q4
Reid 7
Poulakidas 8
Shooting comparison
53%
51-96
FG
35%
31-89
45%
14-31
3PT
24%
7-29
67%
8-12
FT
74%
25-34
Play-by-play · 508 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 124·DAL 94
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 124·DAL 94
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
MIN 124·DAL 94
- Q4·10.1
Jaylen Clark defensive rebound
MIN 124·DAL 94
- Q4·13.2
Ryan Nembhard misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 124·DAL 94
- Q4·22.0
Jaylen Clark makes driving layup
MIN 124·DAL 94
- Q4·22.0
Jaylen Clark offensive rebound
MIN 122·DAL 94
- Q4·25.4
Mike Conley misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 122·DAL 94
- Q4·41.6
Tyler Smith makes two point shot
MIN 122·DAL 94
- Q4·42.8
Tyler Smith offensive rebound
MIN 122·DAL 92
- Q4·42.8
Joan Beringer blocks AJ Johnson 's 3-foot driving layup
·
MIN 122·DAL 92
- Q4·47.7
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 1-foot running dunk
MIN 122·DAL 92
- Q4·50.5
Ryan Nembhard bad pass turnover (Terrence Shannon Jr. steals)
·
MIN 120·DAL 92
- Q4·52.5
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 120·DAL 92
- Q4·52.5
Mavericks offensive team rebound
MIN 120·DAL 92
- Q4·55.2
John Poulakidas misses 28-foot three point jumper
MIN 120·DAL 92
- Q4·1:04
Joan Beringer makes two point shot
MIN 120·DAL 92
- Q4·1:05
Joan Beringer offensive rebound
MIN 118·DAL 92
- Q4·1:06
Kyle Anderson misses driving floating jump shot
MIN 118·DAL 92
- Q4·1:17
(01:17) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
MIN 118·DAL 92
- Q4·1:17
Ryan Nembhard makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (AJ Johnson assists)
·
MIN 118·DAL 92
- Q4·1:21
AJ Johnson defensive rebound
MIN 118·DAL 89
- Q4·1:23
Mike Conley misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 118·DAL 89
- Q4·1:32
Joan Beringer defensive rebound
MIN 118·DAL 89
- Q4·1:35
John Poulakidas misses 28-foot three point jumper
MIN 118·DAL 89
- Q4·1:50
Joan Beringer makes dunk (Kyle Anderson assists)
·
MIN 118·DAL 89
- Q4·1:58
Terrence Shannon Jr. defensive rebound
MIN 116·DAL 89
- Q4·2:02
Tyler Smith misses 26-foot running jump shot
MIN 116·DAL 89
- Q4·2:07
John Poulakidas defensive rebound
MIN 116·DAL 89
- Q4·2:10
Terrence Shannon Jr. misses driving floating jump shot
MIN 116·DAL 89
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
51-96
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-89
53
FG %
35
14-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-29
8-12
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
25-34
33
Assists
21
10
Turnovers
15
Betting line
MIN -8.5·O/U 236.5·MIN -355/DAL +280
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Joan BeringerMIN · FTS%68.397
Julius RandleMIN · FDRIVES1290- Ayo DosunmuMIN · GTS%63.087
Naz ReidMIN · CDRIVES5.877
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- Cooper FlaggDAL23.6± 14.0high
- Kyrie IrvingDAL23.4± 13.6high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Daniel GaffordDAL7.8± 3.6high
- Moussa CisseDAL7.8± 4.7high
Assists
- Ryan NembhardDAL6.2± 5.9high
- Brandon WilliamsDAL4.2± 1.8high
- Cooper FlaggDAL4.1± 2.7high
Blocks
- Dereck Lively IIDAL1.6± 1.3low
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Moussa CisseDAL1.2± 1.2high
Steals
- Cooper FlaggDAL1.4± 1.4high
- Kyrie IrvingDAL1.4± 1.1high
- Naji MarshallDAL1.4± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIN
league avg
DAL
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.7%
47.6%
FG%
47.0
46.6%
116.8
PPG
114.9
114.1
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.3
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.0