BOS
50-25
ATL
43-33
BOS · top performer
Luka Garza
C · #52
20
Pts
9
Reb
1
Ast
ATL · top performer
Onyeka Okongwu
F · #17
20
Pts
10
Reb
3
Ast
Biggest swing: 43pp · 3rd Quarter · 10:17
NBA · Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 28 | 20 | 8-9 | 2-3 | 2-2 | +6 | 9 | 1 | |
| 36 | 7 | 3-12 | 1-6 | — | -8 | 5 | 4 | |
| 40 | 29 | 9-29 | 3-9 | 8-14 | -5 | 10 | 9 | |
| 26 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 | — | -3 | 2 | 2 | |
| 31 | 8 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 21 | 7 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -3 | 3 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 4 | 1-2 | — | 2-2 | -8 | 7 | 1 | |
| 6 | 3 | 1-1 | — | 1-2 | -6 | 2 | 0 | |
| 26 | 16 | 6-14 | 4-6 | — | -19 | 2 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | — | -4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Team | 102 | 35-85 | 14-37 | 18-26 | 48 | 18 | ||
| DNP: N. Queta | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 36 | 20 | 7-14 | 4-10 | 2-2 | +12 | 10 | 3 | |
| 36 | 20 | 7-13 | 1-2 | 5-6 | -8 | 12 | 5 | |
| 30 | 14 | 6-17 | 2-6 | — | +11 | 1 | 6 | |
| 35 | 17 | 6-16 | 3-8 | 2-3 | +1 | 4 | 6 | |
| 38 | 18 | 8-11 | 2-3 | 0-1 | +8 | 5 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 23 | 10 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 2-3 | +14 | 6 | 1 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | — | -2 | 4 | 1 | |
| 16 | 9 | 3-4 | 3-3 | — | +12 | 2 | 0 | |
| 14 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | +2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 112 | 43-92 | 15-38 | 11-15 | 45 | 28 | ||
| DNP: C. Kispert, A. Newell, C. Koloko, B. Hield, K. Wallace, C. Houstan | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
47
18
Ast
28
Team stats
BOS
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
35-85
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
43-92
41
FG %
47
14-37
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-38
18-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-15
18
Assists
28
15
Turnovers
11
Season series
Series tied 2-2
BOS132@ATL106ATL117@BOS106ATL102@BOS109BOS102@ATL112todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ATL -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
225.5
Standard · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
BOS+12045%ATL-14259%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 26 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
225.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
ATL beat BOS 112-102. O. Okongwu led with 20 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST. ATL outscored the other side 36-22 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs BOS
Starters vs bench
production by unitBOSstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 30 REB · 17 AST
GS 50
Bench(7)
35 PTS · 18 REB · 1 AST
GS 23
ATLstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
89 PTS · 32 REB · 25 AST
GS 75
Bench(4)
23 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactOnyeka Okongwu · bad pass turnover (Jordan Walsh steals)
CJ McCollum · out of bounds bad pass turnover
Jalen Johnson · lost ball turnover (Derrick White steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 30 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 102 |
| ATL | 29 | 25 | 36 | 22 | 112 |
Period scoring
BOS won 2 · ATL won 2
Q1
Garza 8
Johnson 7
Q2
Pritchard 5
McCollum 8
Q3
Brown 9
Okongwu 27
Q4
Brown 14
McCollum 7
Shooting comparison
41%
35-85
FG
47%
43-92
38%
14-37
3PT
39%
15-38
69%
18-26
FT
73%
11-15
Play-by-play · 476 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 102·ATL 112
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 102·ATL 112
- Q4·17.3
Max Shulga enters the game for Derrick White
·
BOS 102·ATL 112
- Q4·17.3
John Tonje enters the game for Jaylen Brown
·
BOS 102·ATL 112
- Q4·17.3
Jaylen Brown out of bounds bad pass turnover
BOS 102·ATL 112
- Q4·27.1
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 102·ATL 112
- Q4·27.1
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 102·ATL 111
- Q4·27.1
Jordan Walsh personal take foul
BOS 102·ATL 110
- Q4·27.9
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
BOS 102·ATL 110
- Q4·30.0
Jaylen Brown misses free throw 3 of 3
BOS 102·ATL 110
+2pp
- Q4·30.0
Derrick White enters the game for Luka Garza
·
BOS 102·ATL 110
- Q4·30.0
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 3
BOS 102·ATL 110
−1pp
- Q4·30.0
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 3
BOS 101·ATL 110
- Q4·30.0
Dyson Daniels shooting foul
BOS 100·ATL 110
−0.6pp
- Q4·42.9
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
BOS 100·ATL 110
- Q4·42.9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses free throw 3 of 3
BOS 100·ATL 110
- Q4·42.9
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Derrick White
·
BOS 100·ATL 110
- Q4·42.9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 3
BOS 100·ATL 110
- Q4·42.9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 3
BOS 100·ATL 109
- Q4·42.9
Jordan Walsh shooting foul
BOS 100·ATL 108
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:00
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
BOS 100·ATL 108
- Q4·1:02
Jaylen Brown misses free throw 1 of 1
BOS 100·ATL 108
+3pp
- Q4·1:02
Nickeil Alexander-Walker shooting foul
BOS 100·ATL 108
−4pp
- Q4·1:02
Jaylen Brown makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
BOS 100·ATL 108
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:13
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
BOS 98·ATL 108
- Q4·1:16
CJ McCollum misses 15-foot step back jumpshot
BOS 98·ATL 108
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:36
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
BOS 98·ATL 108
- Q4·1:39
Jaylen Brown misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 98·ATL 108
+0.8pp
- Q4·1:51
CJ McCollum makes driving layup
BOS 98·ATL 108
+1pp
- Q4·2:13
Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three pointer
BOS 98·ATL 106
−2pp
Betting line
ATL -2.5·O/U 225.5·BOS +120/ATL -142
Recap · NBA
tlanta Hawks held off Boston Celtics, 112–102.
ATL -2.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 11.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort- Onyeka OkongwuATL · FDEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · GDEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · FTOUCHES79.397- Luka GarzaBOS · CTS%68.296
CJ McCollumATL · GDRIVES10.288
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
145
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Jayson TatumBOS22.9± 3.5high
- Jalen JohnsonATL19.8± 3.8high
- CJ McCollumATL19.4± 8.5high
Rebounds
- Jayson TatumBOS10.4± 3.8high
- Jalen JohnsonATL9.1± 2.5high
- Neemias QuetaBOS8.4± 3.6high
Assists
- Jayson TatumBOS6.4± 2.6high
- Ryan NembhardATL6.2± 5.9high
- Jalen JohnsonATL5.8± 1.8high
Blocks
- Derrick WhiteBOS1.1± 1.3high
- Neemias QuetaBOS1.0± 0.8high
- CJ McCollumATL0.9± 0.9high
Steals
- Dyson DanielsATL2.1± 1.3high
- Paul GeorgeBOS1.5± 1.1high
- Jayson TatumBOS1.4± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
BOS
league avg
ATL
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.1%
46.5%
FG%
47.0
▶47.2%
114.2
PPG
114.9
▶117.2
24.6
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.6
11.5
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.4