NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10ATL

BOS

50-25

102112

ATL

43-33

NBAMon, Mar 30FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasATL -2.5

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Boston Celtics, 112–102.

ATL -2.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

Luka Garza

C · #52

21.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Onyeka Okongwu

F · #17

19.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. GarzaC · #52	28	20	8-9	2-3	2-2	+6	9	1
D. WhiteG · #9	36	7	3-12	1-6	—	-8	5	4
J. BrownG · #7	40	29	9-29	3-9	8-14	-5	10	9
B. ScheiermanG · #55	26	3	1-4	1-4	—	-3	2	2
J. WalshG · #27	31	8	2-5	1-4	3-4	0	4	1
Bench
S. HauserF · #30	21	7	2-5	1-3	2-2	-3	3	0
A. WilliamsF · #77	13	4	1-2	—	2-2	-8	7	1
C. BasseyC · #99	6	3	1-1	—	1-2	-6	2	0
P. PritchardG · #11	26	16	6-14	4-6	—	-19	2	0
J. TonjeG · #8	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
M. ShulgaG · #44	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	13	5	2-4	1-2	—	-4	4	0
Team		102	35-85	14-37	18-26		48	18
DNP: N. Queta

DNP: N. Queta

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	36	20	7-14	4-10	2-2	+12	10	3
J. JohnsonF · #1	36	20	7-13	1-2	5-6	-8	12	5
C. McCollumG · #3	30	14	6-17	2-6	—	+11	1	6
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	35	17	6-16	3-8	2-3	+1	4	6
D. DanielsG · #5	38	18	8-11	2-3	0-1	+8	5	5
Bench
J. KumingaF · #0	23	10	4-11	0-3	2-3	+14	6	1
M. GueyeF · #18	12	2	1-3	0-1	—	-2	4	1
Z. RisacherF · #10	16	9	3-4	3-3	—	+12	2	0
G. VincentG · #4	14	2	1-3	0-2	—	+2	1	1
Team		112	43-92	15-38	11-15		45	28
DNP: C. Kispert, A. Newell, C. Koloko, B. Hield, K. Wallace, C. Houstan

DNP: C. Kispert, A. Newell, C. Koloko, B. Hield, K. Wallace, C. Houstan

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Jan 18

BOS132@

ATL106

Jan 29

ATL117@

BOS106

Mar 27

ATL102@

BOS109

Mar 30

BOS102@

ATL112today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+12045%

ATL-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -2.5↗SpreadBet ATL -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 43pp · 3rd Quarter · 10:17

BOS

L. Garza

Game leader · 28 min

20 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST

ATL

O. Okongwu

Game leader · 36 minDouble-double

20 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

How it ended

ATL beat BOS 112-102. O. Okongwu led with 20 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST. ATL outscored the other side 36-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 30 REB · 17 AST

GS 50

Bench(7)

35 PTS · 18 REB · 1 AST

GS 23

ATLstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 32 REB · 25 AST

GS 75

Bench(4)

23 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST

GS 17

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL2nd Quarter · 8:19 · 35-38

+8pp→ 60% WP

Onyeka Okongwu · bad pass turnover (Jordan Walsh steals)

BOS3rd Quarter · 10:35 · 57-58

+19pp→ 47% WP

CJ McCollum · out of bounds bad pass turnover

BOS3rd Quarter · 10:17 · 59-58

+43pp→ 54% WP

Jalen Johnson · lost ball turnover (Derrick White steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	30	24	22	26	102
ATL	29	25	36	22	112

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · ATL won 2

Garza 8

Johnson 7

Pritchard 5

McCollum 8

Brown 9

Okongwu 27

Brown 14

McCollum 7

BOS

ATL

Shooting comparison

BOS

ATL

41%

35-85

47%

43-92

38%

14-37

3PT

39%

15-38

69%

18-26

73%

11-15

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 102·ATL 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 102·ATL 112
Q4·17.3
Max Shulga enters the game for Derrick White
·
BOS 102·ATL 112
Q4·17.3
John Tonje enters the game for Jaylen Brown
·
BOS 102·ATL 112
Q4·17.3
Jaylen Brown out of bounds bad pass turnover
BOS 102·ATL 112
Q4·27.1
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 102·ATL 112
Q4·27.1
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 102·ATL 111
Q4·27.1
Jordan Walsh personal take foul
BOS 102·ATL 110
Q4·27.9
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
BOS 102·ATL 110
Q4·30.0
Jaylen Brown misses free throw 3 of 3
BOS 102·ATL 110
+2pp
Q4·30.0
Derrick White enters the game for Luka Garza
·
BOS 102·ATL 110
Q4·30.0
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 3
BOS 102·ATL 110
−1pp
Q4·30.0
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 3
BOS 101·ATL 110
Q4·30.0
Dyson Daniels shooting foul
BOS 100·ATL 110
−0.6pp
Q4·42.9
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
BOS 100·ATL 110
Q4·42.9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses free throw 3 of 3
BOS 100·ATL 110
Q4·42.9
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Derrick White
·
BOS 100·ATL 110
Q4·42.9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 3
BOS 100·ATL 110
Q4·42.9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 3
BOS 100·ATL 109
Q4·42.9
Jordan Walsh shooting foul
BOS 100·ATL 108
+0.9pp
Q4·1:00
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
BOS 100·ATL 108
Q4·1:02
Jaylen Brown misses free throw 1 of 1
BOS 100·ATL 108
+3pp
Q4·1:02
Nickeil Alexander-Walker shooting foul
BOS 100·ATL 108
−4pp
Q4·1:02
Jaylen Brown makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
BOS 100·ATL 108
+0.6pp
Q4·1:13
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
BOS 98·ATL 108
Q4·1:16
CJ McCollum misses 15-foot step back jumpshot
BOS 98·ATL 108
−0.5pp
Q4·1:36
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
BOS 98·ATL 108
Q4·1:39
Jaylen Brown misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 98·ATL 108
+0.8pp
Q4·1:51
CJ McCollum makes driving layup
BOS 98·ATL 108
+1pp
Q4·2:13
Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three pointer
BOS 98·ATL 106
−2pp

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

35-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-92

FG %

14-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-38

18-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-15

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

ATL -2.5·O/U 225.5·BOS +120/ATL -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.297
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.297
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.395

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

ATL

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR