DET
54-21
OKC
60-16
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder held off Detroit Pistons, 114–110 in overtime. Decided by 4.
DET +11.5 cashed (OKC won by 4). Total cleared the 217.5 OVER by 6.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DET · top performer
Paul Reed
F · #7
21
Pts
10
Reb
2
Ast
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
47
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
NBA · Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 34 | 21 | 7-13 | 1-2 | 6-8 | -5 | 10 | 2 | |
| 30 | 19 | 6-12 | 5-11 | 2-2 | +5 | 5 | 1 | |
| 38 | 17 | 7-16 | 3-9 | 0-1 | -11 | 6 | 6 | |
| 26 | 8 | 3-5 | — | 2-6 | +19 | 7 | 5 | |
| 36 | 15 | 7-17 | 1-5 | — | -4 | 4 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 19 | 4 | 1-3 | — | 2-4 | +1 | 7 | 3 | |
| 24 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-2 | — | -21 | 2 | 1 | |
| 26 | 10 | 4-11 | 2-5 | — | -8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 18 | 12 | 4-9 | 4-6 | 0-2 | +4 | 1 | 4 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 110 | 41-97 | 16-43 | 12-23 | 46 | 30 | ||
| DNP: W. Moore Jr., B. Klintman, I. Jones | ||||||||
DNP: W. Moore Jr., B. Klintman, I. Jones
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 13 | 6-11 | 1-3 | — | +1 | 9 | 1 | |
| 41 | 47 | 12-19 | 2-3 | 21-25 | +8 | 5 | 3 | |
| 22 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | — | -11 | 3 | 2 | |
| 27 | 9 | 4-9 | 1-5 | — | +1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 36 | 14 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 6-6 | +5 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 32 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-5 | — | +11 | 13 | 2 | |
| 27 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | +12 | 1 | 4 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | +1 | 4 | 0 | |
| 14 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-5 | — | -11 | 1 | 0 | |
| 17 | 10 | 4-8 | 2-5 | — | +4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 14 | 7 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 1-1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 114 | 38-81 | 10-34 | 28-32 | 42 | 17 | ||
| DNP: B. Barnhizer, P. Sandfort, B. Carlson, N. Topic | ||||||||
DNP: B. Barnhizer, P. Sandfort, B. Carlson, N. Topic
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
47
30
Ast
17
Season series
Series tied 1-1
OKC116@DET124DET110@OKC114todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -11.5
Between 10 and —
Total
217.5
Defensive · -8.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DET+47018%OKC-65087%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 9 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
11.5
0.0 since open
Total
217.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 35pp · OT · 48.3
DETP. Reed
FGame leader · 34 minDouble-double
21 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
OKCS. Gilgeous-Alexander
GGame leader · 41 min40-point game
47 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
OKC beat DET 114-110. S. Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 47 points and 5 rebounds. Pistons Full's play in the ot drove the biggest swing of the night (35pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
OKC vs DET
Starters vs bench
production by unitDETstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
80 PTS · 32 REB · 20 AST
GS 68
Bench(5)
30 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST
GS 18
OKCstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
85 PTS · 19 REB · 10 AST
GS 64
Bench(6)
29 PTS · 23 REB · 7 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactShai Gilgeous-Alexander · personal foul
Ajay Mitchell · blocks Daniss Jenkins 's 3-foot driving layup
Cason Wallace · misses driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 24 | 19 | 31 | 27 | 9 | 110 |
| OKC | 31 | 22 | 26 | 22 | 13 | 114 |
Period scoring
DET won 2 · OKC won 3
Q1
Green 5
Mitchell 16
Q2
Green 5
Holmgren 22
Q3
Green 6
Wallace 34
Q4
Thompson 5
Gilgeous-Alexander 24
OT
II 5
Gilgeous-Alexander 8
Shooting comparison
42%
41-97
FG
47%
38-81
37%
16-43
3PT
29%
10-34
52%
12-23
FT
88%
28-32
Play-by-play · 555 plays
- OT·0.0
End of Game
DET 110·OKC 114
- OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
DET 110·OKC 114
+0.6pp
- OT·1.5
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
DET 110·OKC 114
- OT·1.5
Kevin Huerter misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot
DET 110·OKC 114
+4pp
- OT·5.4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 110·OKC 114
−3pp
- OT·5.4
Luguentz Dort enters the game for Jared McCain
·
DET 110·OKC 113
- OT·5.4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 110·OKC 113
+0.7pp
- OT·5.4
Kevin Huerter personal foulBIG MOMENT
DET 110·OKC 112
+7pp
- OT·6.4
Jared McCain enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
DET 110·OKC 112
- OT·6.4
Thunder Full timeout
DET 110·OKC 112
- OT·6.4
Daniss Jenkins makes driving layup
DET 110·OKC 112
- OT·13.3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 108·OKC 112
−2pp
- OT·13.3
Luguentz Dort enters the game for Jaylin Williams
· ·
DET 108·OKC 111
- OT·13.3
Thunder offensive team rebound
DET 108·OKC 111
−3pp
- OT·13.3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses free throw 1 of 2
DET 108·OKC 111
−2pp
- OT·13.3
Caris LeVert enters the game for Ronald Holland II
·
DET 108·OKC 111
- OT·13.3
Ronald Holland II personal foulBIG MOMENT
DET 108·OKC 111
+7pp
- OT·31.3
Thunder Full timeout
DET 108·OKC 111
- OT·31.3
Paul Reed makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DET 108·OKC 111
+8pp
- OT·31.3
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Caris LeVert
·
DET 107·OKC 111
- OT·31.3
Paul Reed makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 107·OKC 111
−2pp
- OT·31.3
Cason Wallace shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DET 106·OKC 111
−10pp
- OT·48.3
Pistons Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
DET 106·OKC 111
+35pp
- OT·48.3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 3 of 3
DET 106·OKC 111
−3pp
- OT·48.3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 3
DET 106·OKC 110
+4pp
- OT·48.3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 3
DET 106·OKC 109
+1pp
- OT·48.3
Javonte Green enters the game for Ronald Holland IIBIG MOMENT
·
DET 106·OKC 108
+18pp
- OT·48.3
Kevin Huerter shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DET 106·OKC 108
+11pp
- OT·48.9
(00:48.9) [Pistons] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Pistons] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
DET 106·OKC 108
−18pp
- OT·1:09
Paul Reed makes dunk (Kevin Huerter assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DET 106·OKC 108
−6pp
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
OKC
Home
41-97
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-81
42
FG %
47
16-43
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-34
12-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
28-32
30
Assists
17
16
Turnovers
17
Betting line
OKC -11.5·O/U 217.5·DET +470/OKC -650
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Cason WallaceOKC · GDEFL599+- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GUSG%32.899
Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799
Ajay MitchellOKC · GDRIVES14.796
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.595
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
OKC vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- Tobias HarrisDET16.3± 7.8high
Rebounds
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Jalen WilliamsOKC4.8± 2.9high
Blocks
- Ausar ThompsonDET1.5± 1.3high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Jalen DurenDET1.0± 1.1high
Steals
- Ausar ThompsonDET2.0± 1.8high
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DET
league avg
OKC
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.9%
48.0%
FG%
47.0
48.2%
115.9
PPG
114.9
▶118.5
27.0
Assists / G
25.0
25.8
14.3
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶11.9