NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15SA

CHI

29-46

114129

57-18

NBAMon, Mar 30FinalSeriesSA wins series 2-0VegasSA -17.5

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Chicago Bulls, 129–114.

CHI +17.5 cashed (SA won by 15). Total stayed UNDER 246.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHI · top performer

Leonard Miller

F · #11

21.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

39.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. YabuseleF · #28	30	15	4-10	1-6	6-8	-8	5	2
I. OkoroF · #35	25	6	2-5	1-3	1-2	-10	3	0
M. BuzelisF · #14	28	12	5-12	1-6	1-1	-28	6	2
T. JonesG · #30	26	23	9-13	2-3	3-3	-7	2	3
J. GiddeyG · #3	33	9	3-5	2-3	1-2	-18	7	10
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	21	2	0-7	0-4	2-2	+3	1	1
L. MillerF · #11	25	21	9-14	3-8	—	-9	6	4
L. OlbrichC · #47	4	0	—	—	0-2	0	1	0
C. SextonG · #2	27	20	8-15	3-6	1-1	0	3	3
R. DillinghamG · #7	20	6	3-12	0-5	—	+2	1	1
Team		114	43-93	13-44	15-21		35	26
DNP: A. Simons, Y. Kawamura

DNP: A. Simons, Y. Kawamura

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	28	13	5-7	3-5	—	+9	8	3
V. WembanyamaF · #1	31	41	17-27	3-6	4-4	+15	16	4
D. FoxG · #4	23	7	3-8	0-3	1-2	+9	2	6
D. VassellG · #24	31	6	2-9	2-4	—	+20	7	3
S. CastleG · #5	35	21	6-12	3-6	6-10	+24	8	10
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	17	3	1-5	0-2	1-2	-5	1	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	26	15	5-11	2-5	3-4	+11	2	1
C. BryantF · #11	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	0	0
L. KornetC · #7	19	10	4-5	—	2-2	-8	5	1
D. HarperG · #2	24	13	6-11	1-2	—	+4	6	3
Team		129	49-96	14-34	17-24		55	31
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

SA wins series 2-0

Nov 11

SA121@

CHI117

Mar 31

CHI114@

SA129today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -17.5

Between 10 and —

Total

246.5

High-scoring · +20.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+11008%

SA-210095%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -17.5↗SpreadBet SA -17.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

17.5

0.0 since open

Total

246.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHI ↔ SA

CHI

L. Miller

Game leader · 25 min

21 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST

V. Wembanyama

Game leader · 31 min40-point game

41 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST

How it ended

SA beat CHI 129-114. V. Wembanyama led the way with 41 points and 16 rebounds. SA outscored the other side 35-19 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 23 REB · 17 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

49 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 33

SAstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 41 REB · 26 AST

GS 85

Bench(5)

41 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST

GS 33

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	28	19	35	32	114
SA	29	35	38	27	129

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · SA won 3

Jones 7

Wembanyama 10

Miller 9

Castle 12

Jones 12

Wembanyama 14

Buzelis 10

Castle 6

CHI

Shooting comparison

CHI

46%

43-93

51%

49-96

30%

13-44

3PT

41%

14-34

71%

15-21

71%

17-24

Play-by-play · 489 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 114·SA 129
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 114·SA 129
Q4·19.4
Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three pointer (Patrick Williams assists)
·
CHI 114·SA 129
Q4·28.8
shot clock turnover
CHI 111·SA 129
Q4·52.1
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
CHI 111·SA 129
Q4·55.0
Patrick Williams misses 27-foot three point jumper
CHI 111·SA 129
Q4·1:04
Devin Vassell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)
·
CHI 111·SA 129
Q4·1:14
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
CHI 111·SA 126
Q4·1:18
Stephon Castle misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHI 111·SA 126
Q4·1:35
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
CHI 111·SA 126
Q4·1:44
Lachlan Olbrich misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 111·SA 126
Q4·1:44
Bulls offensive team rebound
CHI 111·SA 126
Q4·1:44
Lachlan Olbrich misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 111·SA 126
Q4·1:44
Luke Kornet shooting foul
CHI 111·SA 126
Q4·1:54
Luke Kornet makes layup (Stephon Castle assists)
·
CHI 111·SA 126
Q4·2:11
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
CHI 111·SA 124
Q4·2:13
Rob Dillingham misses running pullup jump shot
CHI 111·SA 124
Q4·2:18
Lachlan Olbrich defensive rebound
CHI 111·SA 124
Q4·2:21
Julian Champagnie misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHI 111·SA 124
Q4·2:34
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
CHI 111·SA 124
Q4·2:35
Patrick Williams misses driving layup
CHI 111·SA 124
Q4·2:42
Collin Sexton defensive rebound
CHI 111·SA 124
Q4·2:44
Luke Kornet misses layup
CHI 111·SA 124
Q4·3:00
Rob Dillingham makes 8-foot pullup jump shot
CHI 111·SA 124
Q4·3:09
Stephon Castle makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 109·SA 124
Q4·3:09
Stephon Castle makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 109·SA 123
Q4·3:09
Collin Sexton shooting foul
CHI 109·SA 122
Q4·3:19
Collin Sexton makes running layup
CHI 109·SA 122
Q4·3:22
Collin Sexton defensive rebound
CHI 107·SA 122
Q4·3:30
Keldon Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHI 107·SA 122

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

Home

43-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-96

FG %

13-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-34

15-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-24

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

SA -17.5·O/U 246.5·CHI +1100/SA -2100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.896
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.591
Devin VassellSA · G
DEFL2.583
Keldon JohnsonSA · F
TS%61.376

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Victor WembanyamaSA
25.2± 4.8high
Collin SextonCHI
17.9± 4.5high
Tre JonesCHI
17.5± 7.4high

Rebounds

Victor WembanyamaSA
9.9± 3.2high
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Victor WembanyamaSA
3.0± 1.1high
Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Devin VassellSA
1.2± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

54.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.3%

46.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

116.3

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

28.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.3

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR