NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+26PHX

PHX

42-33

131105

MEM

25-50

NBAMon, Mar 30FinalSeriesPHX wins series 2-1VegasPHX -12.5

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 131–105. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PHX -12.5 cashed (won by 26). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

26.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Cam Spencer

G · #24

14.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	24	9	3-7	2-6	1-2	+1	4	1
O. IghodaroF · #11	35	11	5-9	—	1-2	+12	5	8
D. BookerG · #1	26	36	16-24	4-6	—	+5	2	5
C. GillespieG · #12	32	11	4-16	3-11	—	+14	5	10
J. GreenG · #4	24	21	9-18	3-7	—	+1	6	1
Bench
C. HuntleyF · #22	2	0	—	—	—	+7	0	1
R. DunnF · #0	22	6	3-5	0-1	—	+9	8	2
R. FlemingF · #20	24	11	5-11	1-4	—	+25	1	1
K. MaluachC · #10	13	6	2-4	—	2-4	+14	11	0
J. GoodwinG · #23	28	9	3-9	3-8	—	+22	4	8
J. BouyeaG · #17	6	8	4-4	—	—	+12	1	0
K. BreaG · #14	4	3	1-2	1-2	—	+8	0	2
Team		131	55-109	17-45	4-8		47	39

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HendricksF · #22	18	5	2-5	1-3	—	+5	2	0
C. CowardF · #23	24	7	1-7	0-3	5-5	-17	3	3
G. JacksonF · #45	17	14	6-7	0-1	2-2	+2	4	2
C. SpencerG · #24	18	16	6-9	4-5	—	-4	3	5
J. MashackG · #21	37	14	5-11	1-5	3-4	-32	3	2
Bench
T. BurtonF · #5	32	17	7-13	3-7	—	-21	4	1
D. JarreauG · #77	33	12	4-11	0-2	4-4	-24	8	4
A. BalG · #72	31	9	3-6	1-3	2-3	-17	3	2
W. Clayton Jr.G · #4	30	11	4-6	1-1	2-2	-22	3	7
Team		105	38-75	11-30	18-20		33	26
DNP: T. Gibson, O. Prosper, J. Wells

DNP: T. Gibson, O. Prosper, J. Wells

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

PHX wins series 2-1

Oct 30

MEM114@

PHX113

Jan 8

PHX117@

MEM98

Mar 31

PHX131@

MEM105today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX-70088%

MEM+50017%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -12.5↗SpreadBet PHX -12.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHX ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 54pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:21

PHX

D. Booker

Game leader · 26 min30-point game

36 PTS · 2 REB · 5 AST

MEM

C. Spencer

Game leader · 18 min

16 PTS · 3 REB · 5 AST

How it ended

PHX beat MEM 131-105. D. Booker led the way with 36 points and 5 assists. PHX outscored the other side 40-16 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 22 REB · 25 AST

GS 69

Bench(7)

43 PTS · 25 REB · 14 AST

GS 56

MEMstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST

GS 39

Bench(4)

49 PTS · 18 REB · 14 AST

GS 39

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MEM3rd Quarter · 1:07 · 88-89

+9pp→ 45% WP

Walter Clayton Jr. · makes 25-foot three pointer

PHX3rd Quarter · 0.2 · 91-89

+10pp→ 65% WP

Devin Booker · makes 29-foot jump bank shot (Oso Ighodaro assists)

MEM3rd Quarter · 2:21 · 83-86

+54pp→ 54% WP

DeJon Jarreau · out of bounds bad pass turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	34	31	26	40	131
MEM	31	30	28	16	105

Period scoring

PHX won 3 · MEM won 1

Booker 12

Spencer 8

Green 11

Burton 8

Booker 13

Burton 7

Gillespie 11

Bal 3

PHX

MEM

Shooting comparison

PHX

MEM

50%

55-109

51%

38-75

38%

17-45

3PT

37%

11-30

50%

4-8

90%

18-20

Play-by-play · 467 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 131·MEM 105
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 131·MEM 105
Q4·0.1
shot clock turnover
PHX 131·MEM 105
Q4·24.2
Jahmai Mashack makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 131·MEM 105
Q4·24.2
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
PHX 131·MEM 104
Q4·24.2
Jahmai Mashack misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 131·MEM 104
Q4·24.2
Rasheer Fleming shooting foul
PHX 131·MEM 104
Q4·32.0
Jamaree Bouyea makes driving layup
PHX 131·MEM 104
Q4·47.6
DeJon Jarreau out of bounds bad pass turnover
PHX 129·MEM 104
Q4·55.7
Jamaree Bouyea makes driving layup (Koby Brea assists)
·
PHX 129·MEM 104
Q4·1:20
Jahmai Mashack makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 127·MEM 104
Q4·1:20
Jahmai Mashack makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 127·MEM 103
Q4·1:20
CJ Huntley shooting foul
PHX 127·MEM 102
Q4·1:29
Tyler Burton defensive goaltending violation
PHX 127·MEM 102
Q4·1:29
Jamaree Bouyea makes driving layup (Rasheer Fleming assists)
·
PHX 127·MEM 102
Q4·1:34
Jamaree Bouyea defensive rebound
PHX 125·MEM 102
Q4·1:39
Khaman Maluach blocks Tyler Burton's layup
·
PHX 125·MEM 102
Q4·1:45
Rasheer Fleming makes two point shot (CJ Huntley assists)
·
PHX 125·MEM 102
Q4·1:49
Walter Clayton Jr. bad pass turnover (Jamaree Bouyea steals)
·
PHX 123·MEM 102
Q4·1:58
Khaman Maluach makes alley oop layup (Koby Brea assists)
·
PHX 123·MEM 102
Q4·2:15
CJ Huntley enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
PHX 121·MEM 102
Q4·2:15
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Ryan Dunn
·
PHX 121·MEM 102
Q4·2:15
Jahmai Mashack enters the game for Adama Bal
·
PHX 121·MEM 102
Q4·2:15
Suns Full timeout
PHX 121·MEM 102
Q4·2:15
Ryan Dunn defensive rebound
PHX 121·MEM 102
Q4·2:18
Cedric Coward misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHX 121·MEM 102
Q4·2:35
Ryan Dunn out of bounds bad pass turnover
PHX 121·MEM 102
Q4·2:38
Ryan Dunn offensive rebound
PHX 121·MEM 102
Q4·2:43
Koby Brea misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 121·MEM 102
Q4·2:45
Suns offensive team rebound
PHX 121·MEM 102

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

55-109

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-75

FG %

17-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-30

4-8

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-20

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

PHX -12.5·O/U 228.5·PHX -700/MEM +500

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 7 players in cohort

Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792
Collin GillespiePHX · G
TOUCHES59.383
Royce O'NealePHX · F
CONT4.874

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high
Dillon BrooksPHX
20.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high
Santi AldamaMEM
6.7± 2.1high

Assists

Ja MorantMEM
8.1± 3.9high
Cam SpencerMEM
5.8± 2.9high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high
GG JacksonMEM
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

MEM

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.3%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

45.6%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

114.7

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR