PHI
41-34
MIA
40-36
Recap · NBA
iami Heat held off Philadelphia 76ers, 119–109.
MIA +2.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 242.5 by 14.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHI · top performer
Tyrese Maxey
G · #0
23
Pts
7
Reb
9
Ast
MIA · top performer
Bam Adebayo
C · #13
23
Pts
16
Reb
6
Ast
NBA · Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 19 | 7-18 | 4-11 | 1-1 | -22 | 4 | 2 | |
| 20 | 4 | 2-2 | — | — | -12 | 4 | 0 | |
| 34 | 26 | 10-25 | 2-6 | 4-5 | -18 | 7 | 3 | |
| 44 | 23 | 7-20 | 2-9 | 7-7 | +1 | 7 | 9 | |
| 30 | 13 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -33 | 1 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | +3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 2 | 0-1 | — | 2-2 | +10 | 3 | 0 | |
| 31 | 11 | 5-14 | 1-4 | — | +9 | 11 | 3 | |
| 32 | 11 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 1-2 | +12 | 5 | 4 | |
| Team | 109 | 40-96 | 12-38 | 17-19 | 42 | 26 | ||
| DNP: T. Watford, M. Beauchamp, J. Walker, A. Drummond, C. Payne, K. Lowry | ||||||||
DNP: T. Watford, M. Beauchamp, J. Walker, A. Drummond, C. Payne, K. Lowry
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 36 | 14 | 6-13 | 2-5 | 0-1 | +5 | 8 | 0 | |
| 42 | 23 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 12-13 | +27 | 16 | 6 | |
| 30 | 9 | 4-9 | 1-5 | — | -2 | 4 | 5 | |
| 42 | 30 | 12-24 | 3-10 | 3-5 | +18 | 4 | 3 | |
| 36 | 20 | 8-13 | 0-4 | 4-6 | +18 | 10 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | — | -8 | 3 | 0 | |
| 32 | 14 | 5-13 | 2-6 | 2-2 | +11 | 6 | 5 | |
| 13 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-3 | — | -14 | 6 | 2 | |
| 3 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 119 | 43-93 | 11-40 | 22-29 | 57 | 24 | ||
| DNP: M. Gardner, K. Johnson, N. Jovic, V. Goldin, T. Keels, K. Jakucionis | ||||||||
DNP: M. Gardner, K. Johnson, N. Jovic, V. Goldin, T. Keels, K. Jakucionis
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
46
26
Ast
24
Season series
MIA wins series 2-1
MIA127@PHI117MIA117@PHI124PHI109@MIA119todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PHI -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
242.5
High-scoring · +16.5 vs avg
Moneyline
PHI-14259%MIA+12045%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
242.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 18pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:23
PHIT. Maxey
GGame leader · 44 min
23 PTS · 7 REB · 9 AST
MIAB. Adebayo
CGame leader · 42 minDouble-double
23 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
MIA beat PHI 119-109. B. Adebayo led with 23 PTS, 16 REB, 6 AST. Joel Embiid's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIA vs PHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHIstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
85 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST
GS 59
Bench(4)
24 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST
GS 21
MIAstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
96 PTS · 42 REB · 17 AST
GS 82
Bench(4)
23 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST
GS 19
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJoel Embiid · bad pass turnover (Pelle Larsson steals)
Tyler Herro · makes 26-foot running jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)
Tyler Herro · makes 28-foot running jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 34 | 27 | 26 | 22 | 109 |
| MIA | 38 | 20 | 33 | 28 | 119 |
Period scoring
PHI won 1 · MIA won 3
Q1
George 11
Herro 10
Q2
Grimes 5
Herro 11
Q3
Maxey 9
Wiggins 13
Q4
Embiid 10
Herro 12
Shooting comparison
42%
40-96
FG
46%
43-93
32%
12-38
3PT
28%
11-40
89%
17-19
FT
76%
22-29
Play-by-play · 475 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 109·MIA 119
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 109·MIA 119
- Q4·12.6
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
PHI 109·MIA 119
- Q4·15.3
Joel Embiid misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHI 109·MIA 119
- Q4·18.5
76ers offensive team rebound
PHI 109·MIA 119
- Q4·20.8
Tyrese Maxey misses 23-foot fade away jump shot
PHI 109·MIA 119
- Q4·26.9
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 109·MIA 119
- Q4·26.9
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 109·MIA 118
- Q4·26.9
Tyrese Maxey personal take foul
PHI 109·MIA 117
+0.5pp
- Q4·28.8
(00:28.8) [76ers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
PHI 109·MIA 117
−0.5pp
- Q4·28.8
Joel Embiid personal foul
PHI 109·MIA 117
- Q4·33.7
Joel Embiid makes driving layup (VJ Edgecombe assists)
·
PHI 109·MIA 117
- Q4·45.8
Tyler Herro makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot
PHI 107·MIA 117
- Q4·55.2
Tyrese Maxey offensive foul turnover
PHI 107·MIA 115
- Q4·55.2
Tyrese Maxey offensive foul
PHI 107·MIA 115
+2pp
- Q4·1:02
Pelle Larsson makes 6-foot two point shot
PHI 107·MIA 115
+2pp
- Q4·1:21
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
PHI 107·MIA 113
+1pp
- Q4·1:25
Tyler Herro blocks Paul George 's 22-foot three point jumper
·
PHI 107·MIA 113
+3pp
- Q4·1:35
Paul George enters the game for Quentin Grimes
·
PHI 107·MIA 113
- Q4·1:35
76ers Full timeout
PHI 107·MIA 113
- Q4·1:35
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes driving layup
PHI 107·MIA 113
+5pp
- Q4·1:48
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
PHI 107·MIA 111
+2pp
- Q4·1:52
Joel Embiid misses 16-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
PHI 107·MIA 111
+6pp
- Q4·2:08
Tyler Herro makes 28-foot running jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 107·MIA 111
+17pp
- Q4·2:12
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
PHI 107·MIA 108
+3pp
- Q4·2:14
Tyrese Maxey misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHI 107·MIA 108
+8pp
- Q4·2:36
Tyler Herro makes 26-foot running jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 107·MIA 108
+17pp
- Q4·2:38
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
PHI 107·MIA 105
+2pp
- Q4·2:43
Joel Embiid misses 18-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
PHI 107·MIA 105
+6pp
- Q4·3:08
Bam Adebayo makes tip in dunkBIG MOMENT
PHI 107·MIA 105
+7pp
Team stats
PHI
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
40-96
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
43-93
42
FG %
46
12-38
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-40
17-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-29
26
Assists
24
9
Turnovers
11
Betting line
PHI -2.5·O/U 242.5·PHI -142/MIA +120
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Joel EmbiidPHI · CUSG%34.399+- Tyrese MaxeyPHI · GTOUCHES94.599
Paul GeorgePHI · FDEFL3.595
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI · GDEFL3.192
Adem BonaPHI · CTS%63.890
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIA vs PHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Joel EmbiidPHI25.3± 7.2high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI25.0± 6.5high
- Tyler HerroMIA19.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Kel'el WareMIA8.8± 6.0high
- Joel EmbiidPHI8.0± 3.5high
Assists
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI5.9± 1.9high
- Tyler HerroMIA4.6± 1.9high
Blocks
- Kel'el WareMIA1.3± 2.5high
- Joel EmbiidPHI1.3± 1.4high
- Adem BonaPHI1.1± 1.3high
Steals
- Paul GeorgePHI1.5± 1.1high
- Dru SmithMIA1.3± 1.8high
- Bam AdebayoMIA1.2± 0.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
PHI
league avg
MIA
52.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶54.2%
46.0%
FG%
47.0
▶46.8%
114.3
PPG
114.9
▶120.9
24.1
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.0
12.8
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.0