NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10MIA

PHI

41-34

109119

MIA

40-36

NBAMon, Mar 30FinalSeriesMIA wins series 2-1VegasPHI -2.5

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

17.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

25.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 18pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:23

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	35	19	7-18	4-11	1-1	-22	4	2
D. BarlowF · #25	20	4	2-2	—	—	-12	4	0
J. EmbiidC · #21	34	26	10-25	2-6	4-5	-18	7	3
T. MaxeyG · #0	44	23	7-20	2-9	7-7	+1	7	9
V. EdgecombeG · #77	30	13	5-8	1-3	2-2	-33	1	5
Bench
J. EdwardsF · #11	1	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
A. BonaC · #30	14	2	0-1	—	2-2	+10	3	0
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	31	11	5-14	1-4	—	+9	11	3
Q. GrimesG · #5	32	11	4-8	2-5	1-2	+12	5	4
Team		109	40-96	12-38	17-19		42	26
DNP: T. Watford, M. Beauchamp, J. Walker, A. Drummond, C. Payne, K. Lowry

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	36	14	6-13	2-5	0-1	+5	8	0
B. AdebayoC · #13	42	23	5-11	1-4	12-13	+27	16	6
D. MitchellG · #45	30	9	4-9	1-5	—	-2	4	5
T. HerroG · #14	42	30	12-24	3-10	3-5	+18	4	3
P. LarssonG · #9	36	20	8-13	0-4	4-6	+18	10	3
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	6	3	1-3	1-3	—	-8	3	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	32	14	5-13	2-6	2-2	+11	6	5
K. WareC · #7	13	5	2-7	1-3	—	-14	6	2
D. SmithG · #12	3	1	—	—	1-2	-5	0	0
Team		119	43-93	11-40	22-29		57	24
DNP: M. Gardner, K. Johnson, N. Jovic, V. Goldin, T. Keels, K. Jakucionis

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

40-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-93

FG %

12-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-40

17-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA wins series 2-1

Nov 23

MIA127@

PHI117

Feb 27

MIA117@

PHI124

Mar 30

PHI109@

MIA119today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

242.5

High-scoring · +16.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI-14259%

MIA+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -2.5↗SpreadBet PHI -2.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

242.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat PHI 119-109. B. Adebayo led with 23 PTS, 16 REB, 6 AST. Joel Embiid's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST

GS 59

Bench(4)

24 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST

GS 21

MIAstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 42 REB · 17 AST

GS 82

Bench(4)

23 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI3rd Quarter · 8:23 · 63-66

+18pp→ 39% WP

Joel Embiid · bad pass turnover (Pelle Larsson steals)

MIA4th Quarter · 2:36 · 107-108

+17pp→ 53% WP

Tyler Herro · makes 26-foot running jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)

MIA4th Quarter · 2:08 · 107-111

+17pp→ 80% WP

Tyler Herro · makes 28-foot running jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	34	27	26	22	109
MIA	38	20	33	28	119

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · MIA won 3

George 11

Herro 10

Grimes 5

Herro 11

Maxey 9

Wiggins 13

Embiid 10

Herro 12

PHI

MIA

Shooting comparison

PHI

MIA

42%

40-96

46%

43-93

32%

12-38

3PT

28%

11-40

89%

17-19

76%

22-29

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 109·MIA 119
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 109·MIA 119
Q4·12.6
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
PHI 109·MIA 119
Q4·15.3
Joel Embiid misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHI 109·MIA 119
Q4·18.5
76ers offensive team rebound
PHI 109·MIA 119
Q4·20.8
Tyrese Maxey misses 23-foot fade away jump shot
PHI 109·MIA 119
Q4·26.9
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 109·MIA 119
Q4·26.9
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 109·MIA 118
Q4·26.9
Tyrese Maxey personal take foul
PHI 109·MIA 117
+0.5pp
Q4·28.8
(00:28.8) [76ers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
PHI 109·MIA 117
−0.5pp
Q4·28.8
Joel Embiid personal foul
PHI 109·MIA 117
Q4·33.7
Joel Embiid makes driving layup (VJ Edgecombe assists)
·
PHI 109·MIA 117
Q4·45.8
Tyler Herro makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot
PHI 107·MIA 117
Q4·55.2
Tyrese Maxey offensive foul turnover
PHI 107·MIA 115
Q4·55.2
Tyrese Maxey offensive foul
PHI 107·MIA 115
+2pp
Q4·1:02
Pelle Larsson makes 6-foot two point shot
PHI 107·MIA 115
+2pp
Q4·1:21
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
PHI 107·MIA 113
+1pp
Q4·1:25
Tyler Herro blocks Paul George 's 22-foot three point jumper
·
PHI 107·MIA 113
+3pp
Q4·1:35
Paul George enters the game for Quentin Grimes
·
PHI 107·MIA 113
Q4·1:35
76ers Full timeout
PHI 107·MIA 113
Q4·1:35
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes driving layup
PHI 107·MIA 113
+5pp
Q4·1:48
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
PHI 107·MIA 111
+2pp
Q4·1:52
Joel Embiid misses 16-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
PHI 107·MIA 111
+6pp
Q4·2:08
Tyler Herro makes 28-foot running jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 107·MIA 111
+17pp
Q4·2:12
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
PHI 107·MIA 108
+3pp
Q4·2:14
Tyrese Maxey misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHI 107·MIA 108
+8pp
Q4·2:36
Tyler Herro makes 26-foot running jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 107·MIA 108
+17pp
Q4·2:38
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
PHI 107·MIA 105
+2pp
Q4·2:43
Joel Embiid misses 18-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
PHI 107·MIA 105
+6pp
Q4·3:08
Bam Adebayo makes tip in dunkBIG MOMENT
PHI 107·MIA 105
+7pp

Betting line

PHI -2.5·O/U 242.5·PHI -142/MIA +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat held off Philadelphia 76ers, 119–109.

MIA +2.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 242.5 by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

LeBron JamesPHI
7.2± 2.6high
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high

Blocks

Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high
LeBron JamesPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Rayan RupertPHI
1.3± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

MIA

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.2%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.8%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.0

Team pages

Philadelphia 76ersMiami Heat

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR