NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19LAL

WSH

17-58

101120

LAL

49-26

NBAMon, Mar 30FinalSeriesLAL win series 2-0VegasLAL -15.5

WSH · top performer

Justin Champagnie

F · #9

16.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

LeBron James

F · #23

20.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ LAL

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #9	27	18	8-12	1-2	1-1	+11	4	2
T. VukcevicF · #00	20	14	4-12	1-6	5-6	-16	3	1
B. CarringtonG · #7	28	5	2-6	1-3	—	-20	1	7
W. RileyG · #27	36	20	8-19	1-7	3-3	-22	2	2
T. JohnsonG · #12	23	11	5-12	1-6	—	-3	6	2
Bench
A. GillF · #16	36	11	5-7	—	1-2	-21	5	1
S. CooperG · #13	20	3	1-6	0-2	1-2	+2	2	5
J. WatkinsG · #5	27	8	4-11	0-4	—	-14	5	5
J. HardyG · #8	22	11	4-8	2-5	1-2	-12	5	0
Team		101	41-93	7-35	12-16		33	25
DNP: K. George, A. Sarr, B. Coulibaly

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	33	21	8-16	1-3	4-6	+25	10	12
R. HachimuraF · #28	26	14	6-10	1-3	1-2	+9	6	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	28	4	2-3	—	—	+23	3	2
D. AytonC · #5	22	12	5-5	—	2-2	+9	7	1
A. ReavesG · #15	27	19	4-11	0-4	11-12	+6	3	9
Bench
J. VanderbiltF · #2	23	4	1-3	0-1	2-4	+5	8	1
D. TimmeF · #17	6	0	—	—	—	-8	1	1
D. KnechtF · #4	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-8	0	1
J. HayesC · #11	20	19	8-8	1-1	2-3	+18	7	0
L. KennardG · #10	23	19	7-10	4-5	1-1	+20	2	1
K. BufkinG · #18	3	2	1-2	0-1	—	-8	0	0
B. JamesG · #9	26	6	2-10	0-5	2-2	+4	1	1
Team		120	44-79	7-24	25-32		48	29
DNP: M. Kleber, L. Doncic

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

41-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-79

FG %

7-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-24

12-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-32

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL win series 2-0

Jan 31

LAL142@

WSH111

Mar 31

WSH101@

LAL120today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+85011%

LAL-145094%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -15.5↗SpreadBet LAL -15.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat WSH 120-101. L. James stuffed the line with 21 PTS, 10 REB, and 12 AST. LAL outscored the other side 40-18 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 16 REB · 14 AST

GS 48

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 17 REB · 11 AST

GS 27

LALstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 29 REB · 24 AST

GS 69

Bench(7)

50 PTS · 19 REB · 5 AST

GS 40

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	26	18	33	24	101
LAL	25	40	26	29	120

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · LAL won 2

Vukcevic 7

James 8

Riley 4

James 10

Riley 11

Reaves 8

Champagnie 7

Hayes 10

WSH

LAL

Shooting comparison

WSH

LAL

44%

41-93

56%

44-79

20%

7-35

3PT

29%

7-24

75%

12-16

78%

25-32

Play-by-play · 443 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 101·LAL 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 101·LAL 120
Q4·19.5
Jarred Vanderbilt defensive rebound
WSH 101·LAL 120
Q4·21.7
Will Riley misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 101·LAL 120
Q4·44.2
Kobe Bufkin makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Drew Timme assists)
·
WSH 101·LAL 120
Q4·1:05
Will Riley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sharife Cooper assists)
·
WSH 101·LAL 118
Q4·1:14
Will Riley enters the game for Anthony Gill
·
WSH 98·LAL 118
Q4·1:14
Wizards Full timeout
WSH 98·LAL 118
Q4·1:14
Sharife Cooper defensive rebound
WSH 98·LAL 118
Q4·1:15
Kobe Bufkin misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 98·LAL 118
Q4·1:30
Justin Champagnie makes 2-foot two point shot (Sharife Cooper assists)
·
WSH 98·LAL 118
Q4·1:37
Anthony Gill defensive rebound
WSH 96·LAL 118
Q4·1:40
Bronny James misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
WSH 96·LAL 118
Q4·1:52
Justin Champagnie makes dunk (Jamir Watkins assists)
·
WSH 96·LAL 118
Q4·2:01
Jamir Watkins defensive rebound
WSH 94·LAL 118
Q4·2:03
Dalton Knecht misses 24-foot three point jumper
WSH 94·LAL 118
Q4·2:20
Justin Champagnie makes free throw 1 of 1
WSH 94·LAL 118
Q4·2:20
Dalton Knecht shooting foul
WSH 93·LAL 118
Q4·2:20
Justin Champagnie makes 2-foot layup (Sharife Cooper assists)
·
WSH 93·LAL 118
Q4·2:24
Kobe Bufkin loose ball foul
WSH 91·LAL 118
Q4·2:24
Wizards offensive team rebound
WSH 91·LAL 118
Q4·2:26
Jamir Watkins misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 91·LAL 118
Q4·2:39
Bronny James makes free throw 2 of 2
·
WSH 91·LAL 118
Q4·2:39
Kobe Bufkin enters the game for Rui Hachimura
·
WSH 91·LAL 117
Q4·2:39
Bronny James makes free throw 1 of 2
·
WSH 91·LAL 117
Q4·2:39
Justin Champagnie shooting foul
WSH 91·LAL 116
Q4·2:53
Jamir Watkins makes 2-foot floating jump shot
WSH 91·LAL 116
Q4·2:54
Jamir Watkins offensive rebound
WSH 89·LAL 116
Q4·2:56
Jamir Watkins misses driving layup
WSH 89·LAL 116
Q4·3:05
Rui Hachimura makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Dalton Knecht assists)
·
WSH 89·LAL 116

Betting line

LAL -15.5·O/U 237.5·WSH +850/LAL -1450

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Washington Wizards, 120–101.

LAL -15.5 cashed (won by 19). Total stayed UNDER 237.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Tristan VukcevicWSH · F
USG%26.991
Jamir WatkinsWSH · G
DEFL2.688
Bub CarringtonWSH · G
TOUCHES59.285

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low

Assists

Trae YoungWSH
8.1± 3.5medium
Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Matisse ThybulleLAL
1.7± 1.8high
Ziaire WilliamsLAL
1.7± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

LAL

53.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

112.9

PPG

114.9

▶

114.8

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.1

Team pages

Washington WizardsLos Angeles Lakers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR