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FINAL+2TB
TB
52-33
31
HOU
43-47
Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
36,039 attended
Line movement
200 snapshots
HOU spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
HOU no-vig %
50.0%
open 50.0%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Logged before first pitch · graded in public
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
35.4%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
42.1%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.9%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.01 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-110
Close price
-110
Open no-vig
50.0%
Close no-vig
50.0%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Logged before tip · graded in public
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at HOU?
- The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
- How is the pick graded?
- In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.
Player projections
HOU vs TB.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 104 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Drew RasmussenTB5.8± 3.9high
- Peter LambertHOU5.6± 2.2medium
- Hunter BrownHOU5.5± 2.8low
Hits
- Jeremy PenaHOU1.7± 0.9high
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.2± 1.3high
- Yainer DiazHOU1.1± 1.6high
Total bases
- Jeremy PenaHOU3.2± 2.0high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU2.0± 1.9high
- Christian WalkerHOU1.8± 1.7high
RBIs
- Isaac ParedesHOU0.8± 1.3high
- Jeremy PenaHOU0.7± 1.0high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Ronel BlancoHOU4.0± 1.4low
- Tatsuya ImaiHOU2.3± 2.0medium
- Steven MatzTB2.2± 2.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TB
league avg
HOU
.729
OPS
.720
.735
.329
OBP
◀
.318
.319
4.39
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.65
3.68
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.66
1.15
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.38
8.2
K / 9
8.5
▶8.9
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
TB wins
TB 3 · HOU 1 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked TB +8pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
