Park factor
96 total idx
Tropicana Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
NYY
NYY
45-27
PregameThu, 1:10 PM EDT
TB
TB
41-30
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesNYY win series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
47.3%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TB vs NYY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 91 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Ryan WeathersNYY6.3± 3.9low
- Cam SchlittlerNYY6.2± 2.1medium
- Drew RasmussenTB6.2± 4.0low
Hits
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY1.4± 0.8high
- Cody BellingerNYY1.2± 1.2high
- Jonathan ArandaTB1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY2.5± 1.7high
- Cody BellingerNYY2.2± 2.4high
- Ben RiceNYY2.0± 2.0high
RBIs
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY1.1± 1.2high
- Cody BellingerNYY0.8± 1.0high
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY0.7± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Ryan WeathersNYY3.0± 3.1low
- Steven MatzTB2.5± 2.5low
- Will WarrenNYY2.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYY
league avg
TB
.775
OPS
◀
.718
.712
.333
OBP
.319
.333
5.28
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.44
3.32
Team ERA
◀
4.18
3.95
1.18
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.24
8.7
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.0
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant