Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 9, 2026

FINAL+8NYY

NYY

51-42

124

54-37

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

18,255 attended

Line movement

37 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TB no-vig %

56.4%

open 56.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.0%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
64.1%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.1%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.2%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-144

Close price

-144

Open no-vig

56.4%

Close no-vig

56.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

TB vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 116 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.7± 2.7high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.2± 2.7low
Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.2± 1.0high
Nick FortesTB
1.2± 1.3high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Nick FortesTB
1.8± 2.2high
Jonny DeLucaTB
1.7± 2.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Nick FortesTB
0.7± 1.3high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
0.6± 1.6high
Jonny DeLucaTB
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
2.5± 2.2high
Will WarrenNYY
2.5± 2.3high
Gerrit ColeNYY
2.3± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

.721

OPS

.719

.728

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.328

4.57

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.36

3.28

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.71

1.18

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.15

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 12 · TB 4 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	6	1	0	3	1	1	0	12
TB	1	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.234	5	2	2	1	0	0	0
B. Rice1B	.275	4	3	2	5	2	1	1
J. DominguezRF	.233	4	1	2	0	0	1	1
C. BellingerLF	.247	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
J. CaballeroSS	.246	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.221	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
M. SchuemannLF	.240	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.215	5	1	2	2	0	0	2
A. WellsC	.151	4	2	1	1	1	1	1
Team		38	12	14	12	3	4	7

Player

.234

.275

.233

.247

.246

.221

.240

.215

.151

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BlackburnRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	3	35
J. BirdRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	15
R. YarbroughRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	17
C. DovalRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	13
B. HeadrickRP	1.2	3	1	1	0	3	25
A. ChivilliRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	22
T. HillRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	15
Team	9.0	10	4	4	2	9	142

Player

2.0

0.2

1.0

0.2

1.2

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.326	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.287	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
J. Caminero3B	.277	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.195	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.255	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.277	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.237	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. FortesC	.257	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
R. Palacios2B	.245	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DeLucaRF	.261	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		36	4	10	3	1	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RasmussenSP	2.1	7	6	6	0	2	61
B. Williamson2B	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	5
C. BooserRP	1.2	1	1	1	0	2	21
C. LeguminaRP	2.0	2	3	3	3	2	33
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	18
C. RoycroftRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	14
Team	9.0	14	12	12	4	7	152

Team

NYY

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TB vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.