Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at TOR?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 21, 2026

FINAL+10TB

58-42

122

TOR

46-55

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

42,881 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

17.2%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
30.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
28.2%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
29.1%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at TOR?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+31.4pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

★ best

-111DraftKings

edge +31.4pp · implied 50.3%

TOR

no live price

Book	TB	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-111★	-108	+31.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high
Trey YesavageTOR
5.3± 3.0medium

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.2± 1.1high
Nick FortesTB
1.2± 1.3high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
2.2± 2.7high
George SpringerTOR
1.9± 1.6high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
0.7± 0.9high
Nick FortesTB
0.7± 1.3high
George SpringerTOR
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonTOR
3.5± 2.7medium
Max ScherzerTOR
3.4± 3.9low
Freddy PeraltaTB
3.2± 3.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TOR

.732

OPS

◀

.720

.682

.329

OBP

◀

.318

.304

4.44

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

3.75

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.04

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.31

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 12 · TOR 2 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +20pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	3	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	4	12
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.312	6	2	2	3	1	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.289	6	0	2	0	0	0	2
J. Caminero3B	.288	3	1	2	0	0	3	0
C. MullinsCF	.202	6	2	2	0	0	0	1
J. DeLucaRF	.261	6	1	2	3	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.289	5	1	4	1	0	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.257	5	2	4	0	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.219	5	1	0	0	0	0	2
N. FortesC	.266	5	2	3	4	1	0	0
Team		47	12	21	11	2	3	7

Player

.312

.289

.288

.202

.261

.289

.257

.219

.266

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RasmussenSP	5.0	7	2	2	1	5	93
C. SulserRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	18
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
Team	9.0	7	2	2	1	6	139

Player

5.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

139

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LukesRF	.290	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Clement2B	.300	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
G. SpringerDH	.228	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.239	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. Okamoto3B	.227	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. ValenzuelaC	.233	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. GimenezSS	.226	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. StrawRF	.223	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Urias2B	.276	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	7	1	0	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GausmanSP	3.1	9	5	4	2	1	90
M. StrawRF	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	15
M. FluhartyRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	11
L. EstradaRP	2.0	3	3	3	1	3	41
P. CorbinSP	2.1	7	4	4	0	3	48
Team	9.0	21	12	11	3	7	205

Team

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TOR vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TOR vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.