Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at TOR?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 20, 2026

FINAL+6TB

57-42

TOR

46-54

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

40,837 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

57.2%

open 56.1% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

19.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
30.8%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
31.3%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
30.4%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.13

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+118

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

43.9%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at TOR?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+15.1pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

★ best

-229DraftKings

edge +15.1pp · implied 65.4%

TOR

no live price

Book	TB	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-229★	+171	+15.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high
Trey YesavageTOR
5.3± 3.0medium

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.2± 1.0high
Nick FortesTB
1.2± 1.3high
George SpringerTOR
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

George SpringerTOR
2.0± 1.6high
Nick FortesTB
1.8± 2.2high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

George SpringerTOR
0.8± 1.3high
Nick FortesTB
0.7± 1.3high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
3.4± 3.9low
Shane BieberTOR
2.9± 3.2low
Trey YesavageTOR
2.6± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TOR

.728

OPS

◀

.719

.682

.328

OBP

◀

.318

.304

4.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.92

3.71

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.07

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.31

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 7 · TOR 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +19pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	1	1	0	2	1	1	0	1	7
TOR	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.311	5	2	2	1	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.289	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.285	4	0	3	2	0	1	0
C. MullinsCF	.199	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.282	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.218	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
R. Palacios2B	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. FortesC	.258	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
T. WallsSS	.224	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
Team		37	7	13	7	3	2	9

Player

.311

.289

.285

.199

.282

.218

.236

.258

.224

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. MartinezSP	6.0	6	1	1	1	0	82
C. BooserRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
C. LeguminaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
B. BakerRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	16
Team	9.0	8	1	1	2	2	122

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

122

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. Clement2B	.298	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
N. LukesRF	.290	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. SpringerDH	.224	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
K. Okamoto3B	.229	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. VarshoCF	.239	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. KirkC	.204	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.228	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. StrawRF	.221	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	8	1	0	2	2

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CeaseSP	6.0	7	5	3	1	7	101
B. FisherRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	16
B. LittleRP	2.0	4	1	1	1	1	28
Team	9.0	13	7	5	2	9	145

Team

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TOR vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.