Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at NYY?

The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 19, 2026

FINAL+1NYY

LAD

63-37

NYY

55-44

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

43,378 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYY no-vig %

47.8%

open 47.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
45.5%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.7%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.7%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.17

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-120

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at NYY?: The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.3pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

LAD

★ best

+128DraftKings

edge +16.3pp · implied 41.2%

NYY

no live price

Book	LAD	NYY	Best edge
DraftKings	+128★	-168	+16.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYY vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 107 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.7± 2.7high
Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.7medium
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.2± 2.7low

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.8± 0.9high
Andy PagesLAD
1.2± 0.8high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.4± 2.8high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.3± 1.4high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.4high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
Andy PagesLAD
0.7± 1.2high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Emmet SheehanLAD
2.9± 2.0high
Roki SasakiLAD
2.6± 2.7medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.5± 2.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

NYY

.771

OPS

◀

.719

.721

.340

OBP

◀

.318

.310

5.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.57

3.64

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.28

1.14

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.18

9.1

K / 9

8.5

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

LAD 1 · NYY 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
NYY	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Los Angeles DodgersNew York Yankees

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.290	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. PagesCF	.266	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Freeman1B	.285	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
M. BettsSS	.226	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. TuckerRF	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Rojas2B	.293	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. HernándezLF	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.262	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. AlfonzoC	.091	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Freeland2B	.234	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Edman2B	.355	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
D. RushingC	.247	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		29	1	4	1	1	4	8

Player

.290

.266

.285

.226

.240

.293

.241

.262

.091

.234

.355

.247

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. KleinRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	24
K. HurtRP	2.0	0	0	0	2	1	29
E. HenriquezRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	21
J. DreyerRP	0.1	3	0	0	0	0	17
B. StewartRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	22
A. VesiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	10
E. PhillipsRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	24
Team	8.0	8	2	2	5	9	147

Player

1.0

2.0

0.2

0.1

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.230	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Rice1B	.281	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.259	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
C. BellingerLF	.255	3	0	2	1	0	1	1
J. DominguezRF	.229	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.224	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
A. VolpeSS	.245	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. WellsC	.152	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
J. CaballeroSS	.244	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. McMahon3B	.216	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	8	2	1	5	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. YarbroughRP	2.2	2	0	0	0	1	36
P. BlackburnRP	2.1	1	0	0	1	1	25
B. HeadrickRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	22
F. CruzRP	0.1	1	1	1	2	1	16
D. BednarRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	32
Team	9.0	4	1	1	4	8	131

Team

LAD

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYY vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.