Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at ATH?

The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Miami Marlins vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 5, 2026

FINAL+1MIA

MIA

49-42

ATH

41-49

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

8,686 attended

Line movement

29 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.5 · +0.5

ATH no-vig %

51.7%

open 53.2% · -1.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

35.4%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
42.1%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.7%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.4%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.48

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at ATH?: The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

ATH vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 3.0low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.4± 1.9high

Hits

Jeff McNeilATH
1.1± 0.8high
Tommy WhiteATH
1.1± 1.7medium
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Joe MackMIA
1.9± 2.0high
Jonah HeimATH
1.7± 2.1high

RBIs

Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.0± 1.6high
Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high
Gage JumpATH
2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

ATH

.732

OPS

◀

.719

.722

.325

OBP

◀

.318

.321

4.39

Runs / G

4.50

4.35

4.00

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.42

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.50

8.5

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 9 · ATH 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	1	2	3	0	0	2	0	0	1	9
ATH	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	3	8

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.346	4	2	3	3	1	1	0
H. HernandezLF	.234	4	2	3	2	2	2	1
L. HicksC	.286	5	0	2	2	0	0	0
X. Edwards2B	.302	4	0	2	0	0	2	1
J. Sanoja3B	.278	6	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.244	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
L. Jimenez3B	.202	4	1	1	2	1	1	0
J. MarseeCF	.192	1	2	1	0	0	0	0
B. NavarretoC	.222	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
G. ConineRF	.226	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MackC	.254	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	9	16	9	4	7	4

Player

.346

.234

.286

.302

.278

.244

.202

.192

.222

.226

.254

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. PerezSP	7.0	0	0	0	0	8	92
L. BacharRP	0.0	4	5	5	2	0	26
M. PetersenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	3	3	2	1	1	29
Team	9.0	7	8	7	3	10	156

Player

7.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

156

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BolteCF	.285	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Kurtz1B	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Z. Gelof3B	.282	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. ButlerRF	.202	3	2	1	0	0	1	1
J. Kuroda-Grauer3B	.409	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
C. CortesRF	.281	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.232	2	2	0	0	0	2	2
J. HeimC	.245	4	1	2	6	1	0	1
B. ServenC	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. ThomasRF	.227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	8	7	7	1	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. JumpSP	3.0	8	6	5	3	1	85
M. BarnettRP	2.0	3	2	2	0	0	32
J. SternerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	17
H. HarrisRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
L. MedinaRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	1	21
E. AlvaradoRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	28
Team	9.0	16	9	8	7	4	200

Team

MIA

ATH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

ATH vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.