NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6CLE

ATL

45-35

116122

CLE

51-29

NBAWed, Apr 8FinalSeriesCLE leads series 2-1VegasCLE -4.5

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers held off Atlanta Hawks, 122–116.

CLE -4.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 237.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

Jonathan Kuminga

F · #0

16.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

25.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	33	18	7-10	1-2	3-4	-33	5	0
J. JohnsonF · #1	34	12	4-16	0-5	4-4	-10	11	6
C. McCollumG · #3	32	12	6-16	0-3	—	-4	4	4
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	39	25	10-19	4-9	1-1	-13	4	2
D. DanielsG · #5	33	12	5-11	1-3	1-2	-5	7	6
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	7	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
J. KumingaF · #0	30	24	11-20	2-7	0-1	+9	6	3
M. GueyeF · #18	16	3	1-3	1-2	—	+25	5	1
G. VincentG · #4	15	10	3-3	3-3	1-3	0	1	1
Team		116	47-98	12-34	10-15		43	23
DNP: A. Newell, Z. Risacher, T. Bradley, C. Koloko, B. Hield, K. Wallace

DNP: A. Newell, Z. Risacher, T. Bradley, C. Koloko, B. Hield, K. Wallace

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	21	8	3-4	2-3	—	+12	4	2
J. AllenC · #31	29	16	4-9	—	8-11	+3	8	0
E. MobleyC · #4	36	22	8-15	0-3	6-10	+20	19	3
J. HardenG · #1	34	21	6-23	4-10	5-5	+1	5	4
D. MitchellG · #45	35	31	12-19	1-4	6-6	+20	7	4
Bench
D. SchroderG · #8	15	5	2-4	0-1	1-1	-22	1	3
M. StrusG · #2	21	8	3-7	2-5	—	-2	2	2
S. MerrillG · #5	27	6	2-3	2-3	—	0	0	3
K. EllisG · #14	22	5	1-4	1-4	2-2	-2	1	1
Team		122	41-88	12-33	28-35		47	22
DNP: L. Nance Jr., O. Sarr, N. Tomlin, R. Minix, C. Porter Jr., T. Proctor

DNP: L. Nance Jr., O. Sarr, N. Tomlin, R. Minix, C. Porter Jr., T. Proctor

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

CLE leads series 2-1

Nov 2

ATL109@

CLE117

Nov 29

CLE123@

ATL130

Apr 8

ATL116@

CLE122today

Apr 10

CLE102@

ATL124

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+14541%

CLE-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 25pp · 4th Quarter · 3:04

ATL

J. Kuminga

Game leader · 30 min

24 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

CLE

D. Mitchell

Game leader · 35 min30-point game

31 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST

How it ended

CLE beat ATL 122-116. D. Mitchell paced them with 31 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. CLE outscored the other side 44-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 31 REB · 18 AST

GS 57

Bench(4)

37 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 31

CLEstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

98 PTS · 43 REB · 13 AST

GS 84

Bench(4)

24 PTS · 4 REB · 9 AST

GS 17

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE4th Quarter · 4:38 · 110-112

+10pp→ 80% WP

Mouhamed Gueye · shooting foul

CLE4th Quarter · 3:04 · 112-118

+25pp→ 89% WP

Evan Mobley · makes free throw 2 of 2

CLE4th Quarter · 1:32 · 116-118

+10pp→ 87% WP

Dyson Daniels · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	29	38	20	29	116
CLE	33	27	44	18	122

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · CLE won 2

Johnson 6

Mobley 10

Alexander-Walker 8

Mitchell 10

Okongwu 7

Mitchell 13

Alexander-Walker 10

Mobley 9

ATL

CLE

Shooting comparison

ATL

CLE

48%

47-98

47%

41-88

35%

12-34

3PT

36%

12-33

67%

10-15

80%

28-35

Play-by-play · 494 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 116·CLE 122
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 116·CLE 122
+1pp
Q4·19.7
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
ATL 116·CLE 122
+0.6pp
Q4·21.8
Jonathan Kuminga misses driving layup
ATL 116·CLE 122
+2pp
Q4·30.1
Donovan Mitchell out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 116·CLE 122
−2pp
Q4·30.1
Dean Wade enters the game for Donovan Mitchell
·
ATL 116·CLE 122
Q4·30.1
Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound
ATL 116·CLE 122
+0.6pp
Q4·30.8
CJ McCollum misses running pullup jump shot
ATL 116·CLE 122
+2pp
Q4·35.5
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
ATL 116·CLE 122
Q4·38.3
James Harden misses 13-foot fade away jump shot
ATL 116·CLE 122
−0.8pp
Q4·59.9
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
ATL 116·CLE 122
+0.9pp
Q4·1:04
Jonathan Kuminga misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 116·CLE 122
+2pp
Q4·1:11
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 116·CLE 122
−2pp
Q4·1:11
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 116·CLE 121
+6pp
Q4·1:11
Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
ATL 116·CLE 120
Q4·1:11
(01:11) [Cavaliers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Cavaliers] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
ATL 116·CLE 120
+6pp
Q4·1:11
Cavaliers Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
ATL 116·CLE 120
−11pp
Q4·1:11
Dyson Daniels personal foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 116·CLE 120
+5pp
Q4·1:21
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
ATL 116·CLE 120
+2pp
Q4·1:24
CJ McCollum misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 116·CLE 120
+5pp
Q4·1:32
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 116·CLE 120
−5pp
Q4·1:32
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 116·CLE 119
+1pp
Q4·1:32
Dyson Daniels personal foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 116·CLE 118
+10pp
Q4·1:41
Nickeil Alexander-Walker lost ball turnover (Jarrett Allen steals)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 116·CLE 118
+9pp
Q4·1:51
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
ATL 116·CLE 118
−2pp
Q4·1:53
Sam Merrill misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 116·CLE 118
−6pp
Q4·2:15
Jonathan Kuminga makes dunk (Dyson Daniels assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 116·CLE 118
−6pp
Q4·2:22
James Harden lost ball turnover (Nickeil Alexander-Walker steals)
·
ATL 114·CLE 118
−5pp
Q4·2:47
CJ McCollum makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 114·CLE 118
−3pp
Q4·3:04
Evan Mobley makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 112·CLE 118
+25pp

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

47-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-88

FG %

12-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-33

10-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

28-35

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

CLE -4.5·O/U 237.5·ATL +145/CLE -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.898
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.297
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.297

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

CLE

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

47.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

117.2

PPG

114.9

117.4

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.1

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR