MEM
25-55
DEN
52-28
Recap · NBA
enver Nuggets held off Memphis Grizzlies, 136–119.
MEM +23.5 cashed (DEN won by 17). Total cleared the 247.5 OVER by 7.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MEM · top performer
Cedric Coward
F · #23
27
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
DEN · top performer
Nikola Jokic
C · #15
14
Pts
16
Reb
10
Ast
NBA · Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 22 | 16 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | +14 | 6 | 1 | |
| 33 | 15 | 5-10 | 4-7 | 1-4 | -30 | 0 | 2 | |
| 22 | 27 | 10-17 | 3-7 | 4-5 | +14 | 6 | 2 | |
| 33 | 9 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 0-2 | -30 | 3 | 7 | |
| 22 | 15 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 3-3 | +14 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 5 | 2 | 1-3 | — | — | +1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 28 | 7 | 2-10 | 2-10 | 1-2 | -30 | 7 | 3 | |
| 37 | 16 | 6-12 | 3-8 | 1-1 | -20 | 6 | 1 | |
| 39 | 12 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 4-4 | -18 | 6 | 5 | |
| Team | 119 | 42-92 | 19-50 | 16-23 | 38 | 24 | ||
| DNP: O. Prosper, G. Jackson, C. Spencer | ||||||||
DNP: O. Prosper, G. Jackson, C. Spencer
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 22 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | +17 | 2 | 6 | |
| 30 | 18 | 8-12 | 2-4 | — | +7 | 3 | 2 | |
| 31 | 14 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 4-5 | +24 | 16 | 10 | |
| 35 | 26 | 8-17 | 5-10 | 5-5 | +18 | 7 | 5 | |
| 27 | 14 | 7-10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | +21 | 2 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -9 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| 13 | 14 | 6-6 | — | 2-3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| 19 | 13 | 5-10 | 3-8 | — | +13 | 4 | 2 | |
| 26 | 13 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 3-5 | +4 | 7 | 2 | |
| 6 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | — | -2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 15 | 10 | 4-6 | 2-3 | — | -8 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 136 | 53-90 | 14-36 | 16-21 | 52 | 31 | ||
| DNP: T. Jones | ||||||||
DNP: T. Jones
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
59
24
Ast
31
Season series
DEN leads series 3-1
DEN125@MEM115DEN0@MEM0MEM116@DEN122DEN118@MEM125MEM119@DEN136todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DEN -23.5
Between 10 and —
Total
247.5
High-scoring · +21.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MEM+18005%DEN-500098%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
23.5
0.0 since open
Total
247.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:08
MEMC. Coward
FGame leader · 22 min
27 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
DENN. Jokic
CGame leader · 31 minTriple-double
14 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST
How it ended
DEN beat MEM 136-119. N. Jokic stuffed the line with 14 PTS, 16 REB, and 10 AST. DEN outscored the other side 39-22 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DEN vs MEM
Starters vs bench
production by unitMEMstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 17 REB · 15 AST
GS 66
Bench(4)
37 PTS · 21 REB · 9 AST
GS 27
DENstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 30 REB · 24 AST
GS 76
Bench(9)
58 PTS · 22 REB · 7 AST
GS 47
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCameron Johnson · shooting foul
Toby Okani · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 33 | 39 | 22 | 25 | 119 |
| DEN | 37 | 31 | 39 | 29 | 136 |
Period scoring
MEM won 1 · DEN won 3
Q1
Hendricks 8
Murray 11
Q2
Williamson 12
Murray 9
Q3
Okani 6
Jr. 10
Q4
Coward 11
Valanciunas 10
Shooting comparison
46%
42-92
FG
59%
53-90
38%
19-50
3PT
39%
14-36
70%
16-23
FT
76%
16-21
Play-by-play · 452 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 119·DEN 136
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 119·DEN 136
- Q4·18.5
DaRon Holmes II makes 22-foot three pointer (Jalen Pickett assists)
·
MEM 119·DEN 136
- Q4·34.4
Cedric Coward makes running layup
MEM 119·DEN 133
- Q4·38.7
Cedric Coward defensive rebound
MEM 117·DEN 133
- Q4·41.2
DaRon Holmes II misses 26-foot three point jumper
MEM 117·DEN 133
- Q4·54.2
Cedric Coward makes free throw 1 of 1
MEM 117·DEN 133
- Q4·54.2
Jalen Pickett shooting foul
MEM 116·DEN 133
- Q4·54.2
Cedric Coward makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot
MEM 116·DEN 133
- Q4·1:07
KJ Simpson traveling turnover
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·1:17
DaRon Holmes II offensive rebound
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·1:21
Zeke Nnaji misses 22-foot three point jumper
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·1:29
KJ Simpson defensive rebound
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·1:33
Walter Clayton Jr. misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·1:48
Lucas Williamson defensive rebound
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·1:50
Curtis Jones misses driving layup
·
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·2:05
DaRon Holmes II defensive rebound
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·2:08
Lucas Williamson misses 23-foot running jump shot
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·2:11
Cedric Coward defensive rebound
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·2:14
Jalen Pickett misses 25-foot three point jumper
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·2:16
DaRon Holmes II offensive rebound
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·2:20
KJ Simpson misses driving floating jump shot
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·2:34
DaRon Holmes II defensive rebound
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·2:37
Cedric Coward misses free throw 2 of 2
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·2:37
Cedric Coward makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 114·DEN 133
- Q4·2:37
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 113·DEN 133
- Q4·2:37
Zeke Nnaji shooting foul
MEM 113·DEN 133
- Q4·3:01
Jalen Pickett makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
MEM 113·DEN 133
- Q4·3:14
Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 113·DEN 130
- Q4·3:14
KJ Simpson enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas
·
MEM 112·DEN 130
Team stats
MEM
Away
Stat
DEN
Home
42-92
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
53-90
46
FG %
59
19-50
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-36
16-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-21
24
Assists
31
6
Turnovers
12
Betting line
DEN -23.5·O/U 247.5·MEM +1800/DEN -5000
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort- Nikola JokicDEN · CTOUCHES12399+
Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.296
Aaron GordonDEN · FCONT6.790
Jonas ValanciunasDEN · CUSG%26.789
Cameron JohnsonDEN · FTS%62.986
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MEM favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DEN vs MEM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
- Ja MorantMEM19.6± 8.8high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Zach EdeyMEM11.3± 7.8low
- Santi AldamaMEM6.7± 2.1high
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Ja MorantMEM8.1± 3.9high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
Blocks
- Zach EdeyMEM1.9± 2.3low
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
- Peyton WatsonDEN1.0± 1.1high
Steals
- Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM1.9± 2.1low
- Taylor HendricksMEM1.5± 2.0high
- Bruce BrownDEN1.3± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MEM
league avg
DEN
53.3%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶57.2%
45.6%
FG%
47.0
▶49.2%
114.7
PPG
114.9
▶121.1
27.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.7
14.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶12.1