MIN
47-33
ORL
44-36
Recap · NBA
rlando Magic held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 132–120.
ORL -11.5 cashed (won by 12). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 18.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Terrence Shannon Jr.
G · #1
33
Pts
2
Reb
5
Ast
ORL · top performer
Paolo Banchero
F · #5
20
Pts
8
Reb
6
Ast
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 18 | 7 | 3-4 | 1-2 | — | 0 | 4 | 4 | |
| 24 | 8 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -25 | 7 | 2 | |
| 19 | 18 | 8-16 | 1-5 | 1-2 | -13 | 2 | 2 | |
| 24 | 15 | 6-11 | 1-5 | 2-3 | +4 | 5 | 2 | |
| 21 | 12 | 4-7 | 4-7 | — | -15 | 0 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 24 | 6 | 2-9 | 2-6 | — | -2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 23 | 9 | 4-10 | — | 1-1 | -5 | 8 | 1 | |
| 33 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-4 | — | +4 | 2 | 4 | |
| 31 | 33 | 11-14 | 5-7 | 6-6 | -2 | 2 | 5 | |
| 23 | 9 | 3-8 | 3-7 | — | -6 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 120 | 45-90 | 18-44 | 12-14 | 33 | 22 | ||
| DNP: E. Freeman, R. Zikarsky, Z. Pullin | ||||||||
DNP: E. Freeman, R. Zikarsky, Z. Pullin
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 20 | 8-11 | 1-1 | 3-5 | +12 | 8 | 6 | |
| 22 | 17 | 7-13 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +20 | 0 | 2 | |
| 20 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-2 | +1 | 7 | 1 | |
| 30 | 18 | 7-13 | 1-4 | 3-3 | +22 | 4 | 6 | |
| 25 | 11 | 4-6 | 3-5 | — | +13 | 0 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 7 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-2 | — | -10 | 4 | 1 | |
| 16 | 8 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 20 | 12 | 5-9 | 2-5 | — | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -8 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 14 | 6-11 | — | 2-2 | +21 | 15 | 6 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -7 | 1 | 0 | |
| 15 | 11 | 4-4 | 3-3 | — | +7 | 0 | 2 | |
| 5 | 6 | 2-3 | — | 2-2 | -10 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 7 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 5-6 | +7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -8 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 132 | 51-95 | 12-29 | 18-23 | 48 | 33 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
54
22
Ast
33
Season series
ORL wins series 2-0
ORL119@MIN92MIN120@ORL132todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ORL -11.5
Between 10 and —
Total
233.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+36022%ORL-47082%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
11.5
0.0 since open
Total
233.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 14pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:09
MINT. Shannon Jr.
GGame leader · 31 min30-point game
33 PTS · 2 REB · 5 AST
ORLP. Banchero
FGame leader · 29 min
20 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
ORL beat MIN 132-120. P. Banchero led with 20 PTS, 8 REB, 6 AST. ORL outscored the other side 29-21 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ORL vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 50% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST
GS 55
Bench(5)
60 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST
GS 40
ORLstarters 53% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 19 REB · 19 AST
GS 59
Bench(10)
62 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST
GS 56
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactTerrence Shannon Jr. · shooting foul
Anthony Black · loose ball foul
Julian Phillips · misses 22-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 32 | 21 | 30 | 37 | 120 |
| ORL | 34 | 29 | 38 | 31 | 132 |
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · ORL won 3
Q1
McDaniels 8
Banchero 9
Q2
Reid 11
DiVincenzo 15
Q3
Jr. 9
Suggs 8
Q4
Jr. 20
Carter 8
Shooting comparison
50%
45-90
FG
54%
51-95
41%
18-44
3PT
41%
12-29
86%
12-14
FT
78%
18-23
Play-by-play · 464 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 120·ORL 132
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 120·ORL 132
- Q4·4.0
shot clock turnover
MIN 120·ORL 132
- Q4·29.1
Joe Ingles makes 29-foot three pointer
MIN 120·ORL 132
- Q4·38.1
Alex Morales makes 15-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 117·ORL 132
- Q4·47.5
Magic offensive team rebound
MIN 117·ORL 130
- Q4·48.1
Joan Beringer blocks Alex Morales's two point shot
·
MIN 117·ORL 130
- Q4·1:02
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer
MIN 117·ORL 130
- Q4·1:12
Julian Phillips defensive rebound
MIN 114·ORL 130
- Q4·1:20
Moritz Wagner misses 27-foot three point jumper
·
MIN 114·ORL 130
- Q4·1:21
Colin Castleton offensive rebound
MIN 114·ORL 130
- Q4·1:26
Jase Richardson misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 114·ORL 130
- Q4·1:39
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 114·ORL 130
- Q4·1:39
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 113·ORL 130
- Q4·1:39
Alex Morales personal foul
MIN 112·ORL 130
- Q4·1:49
Alex Morales traveling turnover
MIN 112·ORL 130
- Q4·2:02
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 19-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 112·ORL 130
- Q4·2:13
Alex Morales makes driving layup
MIN 110·ORL 130
- Q4·2:34
Julian Phillips makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)
·
MIN 110·ORL 128
- Q4·2:40
Alex Morales personal foul
MIN 107·ORL 128
- Q4·2:51
Alex Morales makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 107·ORL 128
- Q4·2:51
Alex Morales makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 107·ORL 127
- Q4·2:51
Terrence Shannon Jr. shooting foul
MIN 107·ORL 126
- Q4·3:02
Terrence Shannon Jr. kicked ball violation
MIN 107·ORL 126
- Q4·3:13
Joan Beringer makes free throw 1 of 1
MIN 107·ORL 126
- Q4·3:13
Colin Castleton enters the game for Jevon Carter
·
MIN 106·ORL 126
- Q4·3:13
Moritz Wagner shooting foul
·
MIN 106·ORL 126
- Q4·3:13
Joan Beringer makes 1-foot layup (Joe Ingles assists)
·
MIN 106·ORL 126
- Q4·3:25
Moritz Wagner makes two point shot
·
MIN 104·ORL 126
- Q4·3:27
Moritz Wagner offensive rebound
·
MIN 104·ORL 124
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
ORL
Home
45-90
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
51-95
50
FG %
54
18-44
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-29
12-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-23
22
Assists
33
16
Turnovers
16
Betting line
ORL -11.5·O/U 233.5·MIN +360/ORL -470
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Paolo BancheroORL · FDRIVES18.699
Franz WagnerORL · FDEFL4.398
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · CCONT9.197
Joan BeringerMIN · FTS%68.397
Jalen SuggsORL · GDEFL3.796
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ORL vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Paolo BancheroORL23.9± 9.4high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- Desmond BaneORL18.8± 7.4high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Paolo BancheroORL8.3± 2.3high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL7.4± 4.7high
Assists
- Paolo BancheroORL6.0± 2.3high
- Jalen SuggsORL4.6± 1.5high
- Ayo DosunmuMIN3.9± 3.1high
Blocks
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Goga BitadzeORL1.4± 1.2high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL1.3± 0.7high
Steals
- Jalen SuggsORL1.8± 1.5high
- Anthony BlackORL1.5± 1.8high
- Desmond BaneORL1.5± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIN
league avg
ORL
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.5%
47.6%
FG%
47.0
45.9%
116.8
PPG
114.9
114.2
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
26.0
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.7