POR
40-40
SA
61-19
Recap · NBA
an Antonio Spurs held off Portland Trail Blazers, 112–101.
SA -2.5 cashed (won by 11). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 16.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
POR · top performer
Toumani Camara
F · #33
18
Pts
4
Reb
6
Ast
SA · top performer
De'Aaron Fox
G · #4
25
Pts
5
Reb
7
Ast
NBA · Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 40 | 18 | 7-12 | 4-8 | — | +7 | 4 | 6 | |
| 38 | 29 | 13-21 | 1-3 | 2-4 | +7 | 6 | 6 | |
| 28 | 11 | 4-7 | 3-5 | — | -4 | 11 | 5 | |
| 31 | 13 | 6-17 | 1-7 | — | -9 | 10 | 6 | |
| 38 | 20 | 7-20 | 3-9 | 3-4 | -7 | 3 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 4 | 2-3 | — | 0-2 | -11 | 7 | 1 | |
| 24 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-2 | — | -19 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | — | +2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 9 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -8 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 101 | 42-93 | 12-37 | 5-10 | 43 | 26 | ||
| DNP: Y. Hansen, V. Krejci, C. Youngblood, S. Sharpe | ||||||||
DNP: Y. Hansen, V. Krejci, C. Youngblood, S. Sharpe
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-3 | — | +6 | 4 | 3 | |
| 26 | 10 | 5-6 | — | — | +5 | 5 | 6 | |
| 35 | 25 | 10-20 | 3-6 | 2-3 | -3 | 5 | 7 | |
| 31 | 14 | 5-13 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 0 | 8 | 1 | |
| 33 | 13 | 6-14 | 1-2 | — | +6 | 6 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 27 | 9 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 5-6 | +13 | 2 | 2 | |
| 29 | 20 | 8-15 | 0-3 | 4-5 | +13 | 8 | 1 | |
| 25 | 17 | 6-9 | 5-6 | — | +6 | 5 | 4 | |
| 9 | 2 | 0-1 | — | 2-2 | +9 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 112 | 43-88 | 11-29 | 15-19 | 45 | 28 | ||
| DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, H. Ingram, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee | ||||||||
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, H. Ingram, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
49
26
Ast
28
Playoff series
SA wins series 4-1
POR98@SA111POR106@SA103SA120@POR108SA114@POR93POR95@SA114Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SA -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
229.5
Standard · +3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR+13043%SA-15561%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
229.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 5pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:54
PORT. Camara
FGame leader · 40 min
18 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST
SAD. Fox
GGame leader · 35 min
25 PTS · 5 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
SA beat POR 112-101. D. Fox paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST. SA outscored the other side 32-23 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SA vs POR
Starters vs bench
production by unitPORstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
91 PTS · 34 REB · 25 AST
GS 76
Bench(6)
10 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST
GS 1
SAstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 28 REB · 21 AST
GS 58
Bench(4)
48 PTS · 17 REB · 7 AST
GS 42
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 23 | 28 | 22 | 28 | 101 |
| SA | 32 | 29 | 27 | 24 | 112 |
Period scoring
POR won 1 · SA won 3
Q1
Camara 7
Fox 11
Q2
Avdija 10
Johnson 12
Q3
Henderson 6
Vassell 8
Q4
Avdija 10
Fox 7
Shooting comparison
45%
42-93
FG
49%
43-88
32%
12-37
3PT
38%
11-29
50%
5-10
FT
79%
15-19
Play-by-play · 461 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 101·SA 112
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 101·SA 112
- Q4·6.9
shot clock turnover
POR 101·SA 112
- Q4·30.3
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
POR 101·SA 112
- Q4·32.3
Jrue Holiday misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
POR 101·SA 112
- Q4·38.5
De'Aaron Fox makes layup (Luke Kornet assists)
·
POR 101·SA 112
- Q4·41.8
Kris Murray enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
POR 101·SA 110
- Q4·41.8
Spurs Full timeout
POR 101·SA 110
- Q4·41.8
Jrue Holiday makes 10-foot pullup jump shot
POR 101·SA 110
- Q4·55.5
Keldon Johnson makes 8-foot two point shot
POR 99·SA 110
- Q4·1:16
Jrue Holiday lost ball turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)
·
POR 99·SA 108
- Q4·1:24
(01:24) [Trail Blazers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
POR 99·SA 108
- Q4·1:24
Trail Blazers offensive team rebound
POR 99·SA 108
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:24
Scoot Henderson misses two point shot
POR 99·SA 108
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:36
shot clock turnover
POR 99·SA 108
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:36
Dylan Harper offensive rebound
POR 99·SA 108
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:39
De'Aaron Fox misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
POR 99·SA 108
- Q4·2:01
Deni Avdija makes running layup
POR 99·SA 108
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:07
Jrue Holiday defensive rebound
POR 97·SA 108
- Q4·2:09
Donovan Clingan blocks Dylan Harper 's 9-foot driving layup
·
POR 97·SA 108
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:22
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
POR 97·SA 108
- Q4·2:27
Jrue Holiday misses 22-foot three point jumper
POR 97·SA 108
- Q4·2:49
Deni Avdija enters the game for Matisse Thybulle
·
POR 97·SA 108
- Q4·2:49
Trail Blazers Full timeout
POR 97·SA 108
- Q4·2:49
Luke Kornet makes running dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)
·
POR 97·SA 108
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:53
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
POR 97·SA 106
- Q4·2:56
Donovan Clingan misses two point shot
POR 97·SA 106
+0.8pp
- Q4·2:56
Donovan Clingan offensive rebound
POR 97·SA 106
−0.8pp
- Q4·2:58
Jrue Holiday misses driving floating jump shot
POR 97·SA 106
+1pp
- Q4·3:12
De'Aaron Fox makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)
·
POR 97·SA 106
+4pp
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
SA
Home
42-93
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
43-88
45
FG %
49
12-37
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-29
5-10
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-19
26
Assists
28
16
Turnovers
15
Betting line
SA -2.5·O/U 229.5·POR +130/SA -155
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Deni AvdijaPOR · FDRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299+
Luke KornetSA · CTS%68.797
Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.697- De'Aaron FoxSA · GDRIVES14.896
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SA vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 160 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Victor WembanyamaSA25.2± 4.8high
- Damian LillardPOR19.2± 8.2high
Rebounds
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Victor WembanyamaSA9.9± 3.2high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
Assists
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
- Jrue HolidayPOR6.3± 3.0high
- Damian LillardPOR6.1± 3.2high
Blocks
- Victor WembanyamaSA3.0± 1.1high
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR1.1± 0.9high
Steals
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Toumani CamaraPOR1.4± 1.4high
- De'Aaron FoxSA1.4± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
POR
league avg
SA
53.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.3%
45.1%
FG%
47.0
▶47.7%
114.6
PPG
114.9
▶118.2
25.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.3
16.2
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶12.8