MIL
31-49
DET
58-22
Recap · NBA
etroit Pistons held off Milwaukee Bucks, 137–111. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
DET -22.5 cashed (won by 26). Total cleared the 222.5 OVER by 25.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIL · top performer
Jericho Sims
C · #00
11
Pts
11
Reb
10
Ast
DET · top performer
Jalen Duren
C · #0
21
Pts
9
Reb
3
Ast
NBA · Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 28 | 15 | 5-10 | 5-8 | — | -7 | 2 | 2 | |
| 27 | 17 | 6-13 | 4-8 | 1-2 | -20 | 5 | 4 | |
| 39 | 11 | 3-6 | — | 5-8 | -20 | 11 | 10 | |
| 30 | 13 | 4-9 | 4-8 | 1-1 | -18 | 4 | 2 | |
| 33 | 23 | 8-19 | 1-6 | 6-6 | -10 | 2 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 | — | -21 | 2 | 0 | |
| 4 | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +2 | 3 | 0 | |
| 8 | 0 | — | — | — | -12 | 1 | 1 | |
| 19 | 7 | 3-12 | 0-8 | 1-1 | -16 | 0 | 1 | |
| 25 | 16 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 1-1 | -11 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 111 | 36-86 | 17-50 | 22-28 | 32 | 26 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 23 | 10 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | +9 | 5 | 3 | |
| 24 | 20 | 8-13 | 4-8 | — | +6 | 1 | 3 | |
| 28 | 21 | 8-9 | — | 5-7 | +24 | 9 | 3 | |
| 26 | 13 | 6-11 | 1-2 | — | +12 | 5 | 10 | |
| 24 | 10 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +3 | 4 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 10 | 4-4 | — | 2-3 | +4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 8 | 3-3 | — | 2-2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 22 | 18 | 6-10 | 3-4 | 3-3 | +22 | 3 | 2 | |
| 16 | 8 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3-3 | +19 | 5 | 0 | |
| 20 | 7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +17 | 3 | 4 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | — | -1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 20 | 9 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 6-6 | +20 | 5 | 6 | |
| Team | 137 | 48-84 | 14-30 | 27-30 | 46 | 38 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
57
26
Ast
38
Season series
DET wins series 3-1
DET129@MIL116DET109@MIL113MIL112@DET124MIL111@DET137todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -22.5
Between 10 and —
Total
222.5
Standard · -3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIL+14007%DET-320097%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
22.5
0.0 since open
Total
222.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 1:33
MILJ. Sims
CGame leader · 39 minTriple-double
11 PTS · 11 REB · 10 AST
DETJ. Duren
CGame leader · 28 min
21 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
DET beat MIL 137-111. J. Duren led with 21 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST. DET outscored the other side 41-29 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DET vs MIL
Starters vs bench
production by unitMILstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 24 REB · 24 AST
GS 67
Bench(7)
32 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
GS 14
DETstarters 54% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 24 REB · 23 AST
GS 78
Bench(10)
63 PTS · 22 REB · 15 AST
GS 61
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIsaiah Stewart · bad pass turnover (Gary Harris steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 28 | 29 | 29 | 25 | 111 |
| DET | 34 | 41 | 37 | 25 | 137 |
Period scoring
MIL won 0 · DET won 3
Q1
Green 10
Duren 8
Q2
Rollins 12
Cunningham 26
Q3
Prince 9
II 8
Q4
Ryan 8
Duren 10
Shooting comparison
42%
36-86
FG
57%
48-84
34%
17-50
3PT
47%
14-30
79%
22-28
FT
90%
27-30
Play-by-play · 488 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 111·DET 137
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 111·DET 137
- Q4·23.6
Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 3 of 3
·
MIL 111·DET 137
- Q4·23.6
Bucks offensive team rebound
MIL 110·DET 137
- Q4·23.6
Alex Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 3
·
MIL 110·DET 137
- Q4·23.6
Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 3
·
MIL 110·DET 137
- Q4·23.6
Wendell Moore Jr. shooting foul
MIL 109·DET 137
- Q4·37.5
Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
MIL 109·DET 137
- Q4·39.0
Alex Antetokounmpo blocks Tolu Smith 's 2-foot two point shot
· ·
MIL 109·DET 137
- Q4·57.3
Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2
·
MIL 109·DET 137
- Q4·57.3
Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2
·
MIL 108·DET 137
- Q4·57.3
Tolu Smith enters the game for Ronald Holland II
·
MIL 107·DET 137
- Q4·57.3
Ronald Holland II personal foul
MIL 107·DET 137
- Q4·1:15
Paul Reed makes 1-foot running dunk (Ronald Holland II assists)
·
MIL 107·DET 137
- Q4·1:18
Ronald Holland II defensive rebound
MIL 107·DET 135
- Q4·1:22
Pete Nance misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIL 107·DET 135
- Q4·1:32
Ronald Holland II makes 22-foot three point jumper (Wendell Moore Jr. assists)
·
MIL 107·DET 135
- Q4·1:50
Andre Jackson Jr. makes 2-foot dunk (AJ Green assists)
· ·
MIL 107·DET 132
- Q4·2:02
Alex Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
·
MIL 105·DET 132
- Q4·2:05
Marcus Sasser misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIL 105·DET 132
- Q4·2:12
Chaz Lanier offensive rebound
MIL 105·DET 132
- Q4·2:15
Marcus Sasser misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIL 105·DET 132
- Q4·2:32
Andre Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 105·DET 132
- Q4·2:32
Andre Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 104·DET 132
- Q4·2:32
Ronald Holland II personal foul
MIL 103·DET 132
- Q4·2:37
Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
MIL 103·DET 132
- Q4·2:39
Chaz Lanier misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIL 103·DET 132
- Q4·2:52
Paul Reed defensive rebound
MIL 103·DET 132
- Q4·2:56
Alex Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 2
·
MIL 103·DET 132
- Q4·2:56
Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2
·
MIL 103·DET 132
Team stats
MIL
Away
Stat
DET
Home
36-86
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
48-84
42
FG %
57
17-50
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-30
22-28
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
27-30
26
Assists
38
13
Turnovers
12
Betting line
DET -22.5·O/U 222.5·MIL +1400/DET -3200
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Cade CunninghamDET · GDRIVES1999+- Jalen DurenDET · CTS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.595
Paul ReedDET · FTS%65.091
Isaiah StewartDET · FTS%63.288
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs MIL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL25.0± 4.5high
- Ryan RollinsMIL19.5± 7.1high
Rebounds
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL9.9± 4.4high
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Jericho SimsMIL7.5± 4.7high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL6.9± 2.8high
- Ryan RollinsMIL5.5± 1.9high
Blocks
- Myles TurnerMIL1.8± 1.6high
- Ausar ThompsonDET1.5± 1.3high
- Jalen DurenDET1.0± 1.1high
Steals
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL2.1± 1.4high
- Ausar ThompsonDET2.0± 1.8high
- Ryan RollinsMIL1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIL
league avg
DET
56.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
54.2%
47.7%
FG%
47.0
48.0%
110.6
PPG
114.9
▶115.9
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.0
14.5
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶14.3