NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5PHX

DAL

25-55

107112

PHX

44-36

NBAWed, Apr 8FinalSeriesPHX wins series 3-0VegasPHX -12.5

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off Dallas Mavericks, 112–107. Decided by 5.

DAL +12.5 cashed (PHX won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 234.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Marvin Bagley III

F · #35

18.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

27.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	18	4	0-5	0-2	4-4	-9	3	2
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	26	20	8-11	3-6	1-2	-6	8	2
C. FlaggF · #32	32	11	4-18	0-4	3-3	+10	11	6
M. ChristieG · #00	33	18	5-11	4-9	4-4	+4	2	2
R. NembhardG · #9	32	9	4-9	0-1	1-1	+3	5	7
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	16	4	2-5	0-1	—	-15	3	3
T. SmithF · #23	15	3	1-2	1-2	—	-10	0	1
M. CisseC · #30	22	11	4-5	—	3-4	+1	9	0
J. PoulakidasG · #1	29	23	8-12	5-8	2-2	+8	1	1
A. JohnsonG · #8	17	4	1-11	0-3	2-2	-11	1	3
Team		107	37-89	13-36	20-22		43	27
DNP: P.J. Washington, N. Marshall

DNP: P.J. Washington, N. Marshall

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BrooksF · #3	33	28	11-22	4-5	2-4	+5	5	3
K. MaluachC · #10	30	4	2-5	0-1	—	+11	14	0
D. BookerG · #1	37	37	13-27	2-6	9-9	+11	5	9
J. GoodwinG · #23	13	9	3-7	3-4	—	+1	3	1
J. GreenG · #4	4	0	0-2	0-1	—	-1	1	0
Bench
R. O'NealeF · #00	23	14	5-7	4-6	—	-3	4	1
O. IghodaroF · #11	18	4	2-3	—	—	-6	1	0
R. DunnF · #0	24	0	0-3	0-3	—	+10	6	2
R. FlemingF · #20	14	3	1-2	0-1	1-2	0	0	0
A. CoffeyG · #2	6	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
C. GillespieG · #12	34	13	5-12	1-7	2-2	+4	7	2
J. BouyeaG · #17	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	0	2
Team		112	42-91	14-35	14-17		46	20
DNP: C. Huntley, K. Brea

DNP: C. Huntley, K. Brea

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

PHX wins series 3-0

Nov 13

PHX123@

DAL114

Feb 11

DAL111@

PHX120

Apr 9

DAL107@

PHX112today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+50017%

PHX-70088%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -12.5↗SpreadBet PHX -12.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDAL ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 23pp · 4th Quarter · 33.6

DAL

M. Bagley III

Game leader · 26 min

20 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST

PHX

D. Booker

Game leader · 37 min30-point game

37 PTS · 5 REB · 9 AST

How it ended

PHX beat DAL 112-107. D. Booker led the way with 37 points and 9 assists. Oso Ighodaro's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 29 REB · 19 AST

GS 51

Bench(5)

45 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST

GS 38

PHXstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 28 REB · 13 AST

GS 64

Bench(7)

34 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL4th Quarter · 8:18 · 95-93

+11pp→ 47% WP

Max Christie · makes 23-foot three pointer (Ryan Nembhard assists)

PHX4th Quarter · 7:44 · 95-96

+11pp→ 64% WP

Devin Booker · makes 25-foot three pointer

PHX4th Quarter · 33.6 · 107-110

+23pp→ 86% WP

Oso Ighodaro · blocks Moussa Cisse's layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	29	24	27	27	107
PHX	33	28	27	24	112

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · PHX won 2

III 8

O'Neale 11

Nembhard 6

Booker 12

Ighodaro 9

Brooks 10

Poulakidas 8

Booker 10

DAL

PHX

Shooting comparison

DAL

PHX

42%

37-89

46%

42-91

36%

13-36

3PT

40%

14-35

91%

20-22

82%

14-17

Play-by-play · 456 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 107·PHX 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 107·PHX 112
+2pp
Q4·13.7
Amir Coffey enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
DAL 107·PHX 112
Q4·13.7
Royce O'Neale enters the game for Ryan Dunn
·
DAL 107·PHX 112
Q4·13.7
5 second violation
DAL 107·PHX 112
+3pp
Q4·13.7
Mavericks Full timeout
DAL 107·PHX 112
Q4·13.7
Dillon Brooks makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
DAL 107·PHX 112
+7pp
Q4·28.6
Moussa Cisse bad pass turnover (Ryan Dunn steals)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 107·PHX 110
+9pp
Q4·29.2
Moussa Cisse offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 107·PHX 110
−6pp
Q4·33.6
Oso Ighodaro blocks Moussa Cisse's layupBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 107·PHX 110
+23pp
Q4·36.0
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Khaman Maluach
·
DAL 107·PHX 110
Q4·36.0
Devin Booker personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 107·PHX 110
−19pp
Q4·43.7
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
DAL 107·PHX 110
−2pp
Q4·47.8
Ryan Dunn misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 107·PHX 110
−5pp
Q4·1:08
John Poulakidas makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dwight Powell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 107·PHX 110
−7pp
Q4·1:12
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
DAL 104·PHX 110
Q4·1:12
Mavericks Full timeout
DAL 104·PHX 110
Q4·1:13
Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointer (Dillon Brooks assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 104·PHX 110
+8pp
Q4·1:32
Moussa Cisse makes tip shot
DAL 104·PHX 107
−4pp
Q4·1:32
Moussa Cisse offensive rebound
DAL 102·PHX 107
−3pp
Q4·1:33
AJ Johnson misses tip shot
DAL 102·PHX 107
+3pp
Q4·1:33
AJ Johnson offensive rebound
DAL 102·PHX 107
−3pp
Q4·1:34
AJ Johnson misses driving layup
DAL 102·PHX 107
+3pp
Q4·1:49
Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 102·PHX 107
−3pp
Q4·1:49
Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 102·PHX 106
+1pp
Q4·1:49
Moussa Cisse shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 102·PHX 105
+9pp
Q4·2:10
AJ Johnson makes driving layup
DAL 102·PHX 105
−5pp
Q4·2:26
Devin Booker traveling turnover
DAL 100·PHX 105
−4pp
Q4·2:39
Tyler Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dwight Powell assists)
·
DAL 100·PHX 105
−4pp
Q4·3:07
Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 97·PHX 105
+5pp

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

37-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-91

FG %

13-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-35

20-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-17

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

PHX -12.5·O/U 234.5·DAL +500/PHX -700

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.693
Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792
Royce O'NealePHX · F
CONT4.874

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Cooper FlaggDAL
23.6± 14.0high
Kyrie IrvingDAL
23.4± 13.6high

Rebounds

Daniel GaffordDAL
7.8± 3.6high
Moussa CisseDAL
7.8± 4.7high
P.J. WashingtonDAL
7.4± 3.5high

Assists

Ryan NembhardDAL
6.2± 5.9high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Brandon WilliamsDAL
4.2± 1.8high

Blocks

Dereck Lively IIDAL
1.6± 1.3low
Moussa CisseDAL
1.2± 1.2high
Daniel GaffordDAL
1.1± 0.7high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Cooper FlaggDAL
1.4± 1.4high
Kyrie IrvingDAL
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

PHX

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

114.1

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

25.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR