NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17LAL

BKN

17-57

99116

LAL

48-26

NBAFri, Mar 27FinalSeriesLAL win series 2-0VegasLAL -18.5

BKN · top performer

Nic Claxton

C · #33

18.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

31.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 9:23

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. WilliamsF · #1	25	16	6-14	1-4	3-6	-2	2	2
N. ClowneyF · #21	24	5	2-6	1-5	—	-6	3	2
N. ClaxtonC · #33	23	16	8-10	—	—	-4	7	3
D. PowellG · #4	22	7	2-5	1-3	2-2	-12	0	1
N. TraoreG · #88	26	9	4-14	1-4	—	-11	1	7
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	15	9	3-11	1-6	2-3	-8	6	2
J. MinottF · #00	26	18	6-12	4-9	2-4	-6	6	0
C. JohnsonF · #31	14	2	1-2	0-1	—	-13	2	2
T. MannG · #14	22	5	2-4	1-2	—	-16	4	2
O. AgbajiG · #30	21	2	1-6	0-4	—	-1	5	1
B. SarafG · #77	22	10	5-12	0-1	—	-6	3	2
Team		99	40-96	10-39	9-15		39	24
DNP: E.J. Liddell, M. Smith, T. Etienne

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	37	14	5-11	0-1	4-7	+19	6	8
J. LaRaviaF · #12	18	0	0-2	0-2	—	+2	2	0
D. AytonC · #5	22	9	3-3	—	3-4	+5	7	0
L. DoncicG · #77	39	41	15-25	5-10	6-6	+19	8	3
A. ReavesG · #15	40	26	7-13	4-7	8-11	+26	8	5
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	26	8	3-6	0-2	2-4	+7	3	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	10	0	0-1	—	—	+6	2	0
J. HayesC · #11	26	10	2-3	—	6-10	+12	8	1
L. KennardG · #10	17	5	2-4	1-2	—	-6	4	1
B. JamesG · #9	4	3	1-2	1-1	—	-5	0	0
Team		116	38-70	11-25	29-42		48	18
DNP: M. Kleber, D. Timme, D. Knecht, K. Bufkin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

40-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-70

FG %

10-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-25

9-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

29-42

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL win series 2-0

Feb 4

LAL125@

BKN109

Mar 28

BKN99@

LAL116today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -18.5

Between 10 and —

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN+11008%

LAL-210095%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -18.5↗SpreadBet LAL -18.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

18.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat BKN 116-99. L. Doncic led the way with 41 points and 8 rebounds. LAL outscored the other side 31-15 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 13 REB · 15 AST

GS 38

Bench(6)

46 PTS · 26 REB · 9 AST

GS 28

LALstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST

GS 76

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 17 REB · 2 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN3rd Quarter · 5:31 · 73-74

+8pp→ 26% WP

Luke Kennard · shooting foul

BKN4th Quarter · 9:23 · 88-89

+9pp→ 31% WP

Jaxson Hayes · shooting foul

LAL4th Quarter · 8:43 · 90-92

+8pp→ 77% WP

Austin Reaves · makes 29-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	30	29	25	15	99
LAL	35	26	24	31	116

Period scoring

BKN won 2 · LAL won 2

Minott 8

Doncic 14

Claxton 8

Doncic 10

Williams 11

Doncic 12

Minott 5

Reaves 15

BKN

LAL

Shooting comparison

BKN

LAL

42%

40-96

54%

38-70

26%

10-39

3PT

44%

11-25

60%

9-15

69%

29-42

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 99·LAL 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 99·LAL 116
Q4·23.9
shot clock turnover
BKN 99·LAL 116
Q4·44.8
LeBron James defensive rebound
·
BKN 99·LAL 116
Q4·49.4
Jalen Wilson misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
BKN 99·LAL 116
Q4·56.8
Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
BKN 99·LAL 116
Q4·1:15
Austin Reaves defensive rebound
BKN 99·LAL 113
Q4·1:18
Josh Minott misses driving floating jump shot
BKN 99·LAL 113
Q4·1:29
Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
BKN 99·LAL 113
Q4·1:45
Jalen Wilson offensive foul turnover
BKN 99·LAL 110
Q4·1:45
Jalen Wilson offensive charge
BKN 99·LAL 110
Q4·1:49
Jalen Wilson defensive rebound
BKN 99·LAL 110
Q4·1:53
LeBron James misses 19-foot two point shot
·
BKN 99·LAL 110
Q4·2:15
LeBron James defensive rebound
·
BKN 99·LAL 110
Q4·2:17
Jalen Wilson misses free throw 1 of 1
BKN 99·LAL 110
+0.7pp
Q4·2:17
Luka Doncic shooting foul
BKN 99·LAL 110
−0.7pp
Q4·2:17
Jalen Wilson makes driving layup
BKN 99·LAL 110
Q4·2:28
Jaxson Hayes makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 97·LAL 110
Q4·2:28
Jaxson Hayes makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 97·LAL 109
Q4·2:28
Josh Minott personal foul
BKN 97·LAL 108
Q4·2:28
Jaxson Hayes defensive rebound
BKN 97·LAL 108
Q4·2:31
Jalen Wilson misses 24-foot three point jumper
BKN 97·LAL 108
Q4·2:46
Jalen Wilson defensive rebound
BKN 97·LAL 108
Q4·2:49
Austin Reaves misses free throw 2 of 2
BKN 97·LAL 108
Q4·2:49
Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 97·LAL 108
Q4·2:49
Ben Saraf personal foul
BKN 97·LAL 107
Q4·3:02
Jaxson Hayes defensive rebound
BKN 97·LAL 107
Q4·3:07
Josh Minott misses 26-foot running jump shot
BKN 97·LAL 107
Q4·3:09
Chaney Johnson defensive rebound
BKN 97·LAL 107
Q4·3:13
Luka Doncic misses 26-foot three point jumper
BKN 97·LAL 107

Betting line

LAL -18.5·O/U 224.5·BKN +1100/LAL -2100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Brooklyn Nets, 116–99.

BKN +18.5 cashed (LAL won by 17). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897
Ziaire WilliamsLAL · F
DEFL3.295
Nic ClaxtonCHI · C
CONT7.392
Josh MinottBKN · F
TS%65.092

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAL vs BKN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Julius RandleBKN
7.2± 2.1high
Luka DoncicLAL
7.1± 2.1high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high
Nolan TraoreBKN
4.2± 2.3high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
0.7± 1.0high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Matisse ThybulleLAL
1.7± 1.8high
Ziaire WilliamsLAL
1.7± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

LAL

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

114.8

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.1

Team pages

Brooklyn NetsLos Angeles Lakers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR