NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7BOS

ATL

41-33

102109

BOS

49-24

NBAFri, Mar 27FinalSeriesBOS leads series 2-1VegasBOS -4.5

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Atlanta Hawks, 109–102.

BOS -4.5 cashed (won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 223.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

23.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Payton Pritchard

G · #11

25.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	38	8	3-7	1-2	1-3	+5	9	2
J. JohnsonF · #1	37	29	9-21	5-11	6-6	+6	6	6
C. McCollumG · #3	34	21	8-20	3-10	2-3	-2	5	2
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	38	20	6-13	2-5	6-7	-8	4	5
D. DanielsG · #5	32	6	3-8	0-1	—	+11	6	5
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	7	3	1-2	1-2	—	-6	0	0
J. KumingaF · #0	18	3	0-5	0-2	3-4	-12	2	2
M. GueyeF · #18	10	3	1-3	1-2	—	-12	1	0
Z. RisacherF · #10	14	6	2-4	1-3	1-1	-17	2	0
G. VincentG · #4	12	3	1-4	1-4	—	0	0	1
Team		102	34-87	15-42	19-24		35	23
DNP: C. Koloko, B. Hield, K. Wallace, C. Houstan

DNP: C. Koloko, B. Hield, K. Wallace, C. Houstan

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TatumF · #0	37	26	8-24	2-8	8-10	+1	12	5
S. HauserF · #30	29	10	4-7	2-5	—	-3	3	2
N. QuetaC · #88	28	5	2-2	—	1-2	+5	11	5
D. WhiteG · #9	34	10	3-13	0-4	4-5	-4	4	5
B. ScheiermanG · #55	28	3	1-3	1-3	—	-13	6	2
Bench
L. GarzaC · #52	15	11	4-5	1-2	2-2	+10	4	2
P. PritchardG · #11	35	36	13-23	6-11	4-4	+26	7	4
J. WalshG · #27	27	5	2-3	1-1	—	+3	3	1
H. GonzalezG · #28	7	3	1-1	1-1	—	+10	2	0
Team		109	38-81	14-35	19-23		52	26
DNP: A. Williams, C. Bassey, R. Harper Jr., M. Shulga

DNP: A. Williams, C. Bassey, R. Harper Jr., M. Shulga

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

BOS leads series 2-1

Jan 18

BOS132@

ATL106

Jan 29

ATL117@

BOS106

Mar 27

ATL102@

BOS109today

Mar 30

BOS102@

ATL112

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+18036%

BOS-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -4.5↗SpreadBet BOS -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 28pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:09

ATL

J. Johnson

Game leader · 37 min

29 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST

BOS

P. Pritchard

Game leader · 35 min30-point game

36 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST

How it ended

BOS beat ATL 109-102. P. Pritchard led the way with 36 points and 7 rebounds. BOS outscored the other side 32-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 30 REB · 20 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST

GS 11

BOSstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 36 REB · 19 AST

GS 37

Bench(4)

55 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST

GS 47

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS2nd Quarter · 5:09 · 43-46

+28pp→ 66% WP

Jordan Walsh · enters the game for Neemias Queta

ATL3rd Quarter · 8:39 · 66-60

+14pp→ 69% WP

Jayson Tatum · misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot

ATL4th Quarter · 12:00 · 82-87

+13pp→ 24% WP

Luka Garza · enters the game for Neemias Queta

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	29	31	22	20	102
BOS	26	29	32	22	109

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · BOS won 2

Johnson 12

Pritchard 7

Johnson 7

Pritchard 19

Alexander-Walker 7

Pritchard 13

Johnson 8

Tatum 13

ATL

BOS

Shooting comparison

ATL

BOS

39%

34-87

47%

38-81

36%

15-42

3PT

40%

14-35

79%

19-24

83%

19-23

Play-by-play · 461 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 102·BOS 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 102·BOS 109
Q4·12.9
Sam Hauser enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
ATL 102·BOS 109
Q4·12.9
Celtics Full timeout
ATL 102·BOS 109
Q4·12.9
Celtics Full timeout
ATL 102·BOS 109
Q4·17.7
CJ McCollum makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 102·BOS 109
Q4·17.7
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Jordan Walsh
·
ATL 101·BOS 109
Q4·17.7
Payton Pritchard enters the game for Sam Hauser
·
ATL 101·BOS 109
Q4·17.7
Hawks offensive team rebound
ATL 101·BOS 109
+0.5pp
Q4·17.7
CJ McCollum misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 101·BOS 109
Q4·17.7
Sam Hauser shooting foul
ATL 101·BOS 109
−0.6pp
Q4·17.7
CJ McCollum offensive rebound
ATL 101·BOS 109
Q4·19.7
Jalen Johnson misses driving layup
ATL 101·BOS 109
Q4·21.4
Hawks offensive team rebound
ATL 101·BOS 109
Q4·23.6
CJ McCollum misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 101·BOS 109
Q4·26.3
Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
ATL 101·BOS 109
Q4·29.0
Jalen Johnson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 101·BOS 109
+0.5pp
Q4·30.4
Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
ATL 101·BOS 109
−0.5pp
Q4·31.0
Dyson Daniels misses tip shot
ATL 101·BOS 109
+0.5pp
Q4·31.0
Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
ATL 101·BOS 109
Q4·36.1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 101·BOS 109
+0.6pp
Q4·40.4
Jordan Walsh enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
ATL 101·BOS 109
Q4·40.4
Hawks Full timeout
ATL 101·BOS 109
Q4·40.4
Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 101·BOS 109
−0.6pp
Q4·40.4
Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 101·BOS 108
Q4·40.4
CJ McCollum personal take foul
ATL 101·BOS 107
+2pp
Q4·49.5
Onyeka Okongwu makes tip shot
ATL 101·BOS 107
−1pp
Q4·52.5
Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
ATL 99·BOS 107
−0.6pp
Q4·53.3
Jalen Johnson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 99·BOS 107
+0.8pp
Q4·1:00
Jayson Tatum makes free throw 3 of 3
ATL 99·BOS 107
−0.7pp

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

34-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-81

FG %

15-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-35

19-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-23

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

BOS -4.5·O/U 223.5·ATL +180/BOS -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jayson TatumBOS · F
TOUCHES8998
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.297
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.297
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

BOS

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

47.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.5%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

13.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR