NO
25-50
TOR
41-32
Recap · NBA
oronto Raptors held off New Orleans Pelicans, 119–106.
TOR -8.5 cashed (won by 13). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NO · top performer
Zion Williamson
F · #1
22
Pts
7
Reb
4
Ast
TOR · top performer
Scottie Barnes
F · #4
23
Pts
6
Reb
12
Ast
NBA · New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-4 | — | -8 | 2 | 2 | |
| 31 | 22 | 9-13 | — | 4-4 | -7 | 7 | 4 | |
| 19 | 7 | 3-5 | — | 1-2 | -6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 30 | 19 | 6-12 | 3-6 | 4-4 | -9 | 3 | 2 | |
| 28 | 10 | 3-12 | 1-5 | 3-4 | -6 | 4 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 17 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | — | -9 | 6 | 0 | |
| 19 | 8 | 3-5 | — | 2-2 | -4 | 7 | 0 | |
| 23 | 13 | 5-11 | — | 3-5 | -6 | 8 | 0 | |
| 23 | 12 | 3-12 | 2-8 | 4-4 | -15 | 2 | 6 | |
| 2 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | +7 | 1 | 0 | |
| 21 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-4 | — | -2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Team | 106 | 39-93 | 7-28 | 21-25 | 43 | 21 | ||
| DNP: K. Looney | ||||||||
DNP: K. Looney
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 13 | 5-13 | 1-3 | 2-3 | +10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 31 | 18 | 7-14 | 2-6 | 2-2 | +26 | 6 | 4 | |
| 36 | 23 | 10-14 | — | 3-3 | +16 | 6 | 12 | |
| 30 | 18 | 9-11 | — | — | +15 | 11 | 3 | |
| 34 | 18 | 6-14 | 4-10 | 2-4 | +22 | 1 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 21 | 18 | 7-14 | 3-5 | 1-2 | +9 | 9 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | -9 | 1 | 0 | |
| 12 | 9 | 3-5 | — | 3-4 | +2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -10 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | — | — | — | -8 | 2 | 0 | |
| 25 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 | — | +13 | 0 | 8 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -7 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 119 | 48-93 | 10-28 | 13-18 | 46 | 36 | ||
| DNP: G. Temple | ||||||||
DNP: G. Temple
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
52
21
Ast
36
Season series
Series tied 1-1
TOR111@NO122NO106@TOR119todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TOR -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
229.5
Standard · +3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
NO+26028%TOR-32576%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
229.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 35.3
NOZ. Williamson
FGame leader · 31 min
22 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
TORS. Barnes
FGame leader · 36 minDouble-double
23 PTS · 6 REB · 12 AST
How it ended
TOR beat NO 119-106. S. Barnes led with 23 PTS, 6 REB, 12 AST. TOR outscored the other side 30-19 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
TOR vs NO
Starters vs bench
production by unitNOstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST
GS 45
Bench(6)
46 PTS · 25 REB · 9 AST
GS 36
TORstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
90 PTS · 30 REB · 25 AST
GS 80
Bench(9)
29 PTS · 16 REB · 11 AST
GS 27
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 25 | 19 | 31 | 31 | 106 |
| TOR | 29 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 119 |
Period scoring
NO won 1 · TOR won 2
Q1
Williamson 6
Barnes 8
Q2
Bey 7
Walter 7
Q3
Williamson 11
Barnes 13
Q4
Queen 6
Mamukelashvili 11
Shooting comparison
42%
39-93
FG
52%
48-93
25%
7-28
3PT
36%
10-28
84%
21-25
FT
72%
13-18
Play-by-play · 486 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 106·TOR 119
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 106·TOR 119
- Q4·22.7
Micah Peavy makes tip shot
NO 106·TOR 119
- Q4·22.7
Micah Peavy offensive rebound
NO 104·TOR 119
- Q4·23.8
Micah Peavy misses 3-foot floating jump shot
NO 104·TOR 119
- Q4·26.4
Gradey Dick lost ball turnover (Micah Peavy steals)
·
NO 104·TOR 119
- Q4·28.6
Jeremiah Fears makes 27-foot three pointer
NO 104·TOR 119
- Q4·40.6
Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound
NO 101·TOR 119
- Q4·44.4
Gradey Dick misses 26-foot three point jumper
NO 101·TOR 119
- Q4·45.8
Alijah Martin offensive rebound
NO 101·TOR 119
- Q4·47.8
Markelle Fultz misses 16-foot two point shot
NO 101·TOR 119
- Q4·1:10
Micah Peavy makes 2-foot running dunk
NO 101·TOR 119
- Q4·1:12
Markelle Fultz bad pass turnover (Micah Peavy steals)
·
NO 99·TOR 119
- Q4·1:21
Jordan Hawkins makes 1-foot driving dunk
·
NO 99·TOR 119
- Q4·1:23
Alijah Martin bad pass turnover (Jordan Hawkins steals)
· ·
NO 97·TOR 119
- Q4·1:39
A.J. Lawson defensive rebound
NO 97·TOR 119
- Q4·1:42
Derik Queen misses free throw 2 of 2
NO 97·TOR 119
- Q4·1:42
Pelicans offensive team rebound
NO 97·TOR 119
- Q4·1:42
Derik Queen misses free throw 1 of 2
NO 97·TOR 119
- Q4·1:42
Markelle Fultz shooting foul
NO 97·TOR 119
- Q4·2:01
Markelle Fultz makes 8-foot step back jumpshot
NO 97·TOR 119
- Q4·2:13
Micah Peavy enters the game for Saddiq Bey
·
NO 97·TOR 117
- Q4·2:13
Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Zion Williamson
· ·
NO 97·TOR 117
- Q4·2:13
Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
NO 97·TOR 117
- Q4·2:13
Gradey Dick enters the game for Jakob Poeltl
·
NO 97·TOR 117
- Q4·2:13
A.J. Lawson enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
NO 97·TOR 117
- Q4·2:13
Alijah Martin enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
NO 97·TOR 117
- Q4·2:13
Markelle Fultz enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
NO 97·TOR 117
- Q4·2:13
(02:13) [Pelicans] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)
NO 97·TOR 117
- Q4·2:13
Raptors Full timeout
NO 97·TOR 117
Team stats
NO
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
39-93
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
48-93
42
FG %
52
7-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-28
21-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-18
21
Assists
36
13
Turnovers
13
Betting line
TOR -8.5·O/U 229.5·NO +260/TOR -325
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Jakob PoeltlTOR · CTS%69.899- Scottie BarnesTOR · FDRIVES16.798
RJ BarrettTOR · FDRIVES16.497
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR · GDEFL3.494
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · FDEFL3.193
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · NO favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs NO.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- RJ BarrettTOR21.8± 4.6high
- Trey Murphy IIINO20.0± 6.2high
- Scottie BarnesTOR20.0± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Derik QueenNO8.1± 5.6high
- Scottie BarnesTOR6.7± 3.3high
- Kevon LooneyNO6.6± 3.6high
Assists
- Scottie BarnesTOR7.1± 3.8high
- Dejounte MurrayNO6.4± 4.4low
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR5.1± 2.5high
Blocks
- Yves MissiNO1.8± 1.5high
- Scottie BarnesTOR1.5± 1.4high
- Derik QueenNO1.0± 0.9high
Steals
- Chucky HepburnTOR1.9± 2.1low
- Dejounte MurrayNO1.6± 0.9low
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR1.6± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
NO
league avg
TOR
52.7%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶54.5%
46.6%
FG%
47.0
▶48.1%
115.5
PPG
114.9
114.3
25.1
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.2
13.5
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.0